Tesla has a lot of markets to enter. Realistically the proportion of the ICE models that S,X,3 represent is a very small representative of global norms. (even the Y) VW etc sell a lot of cars that are just too small for the USA market. When was the last time you drove a Suzuki?
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EV Market Share
- Thread starter jhm
- Start date
Tesla has a lot of markets to enter. Realistically the proportion of the ICE models that S,X,3 represent is a very small representative of global norms. (even the Y) VW etc sell a lot of cars that are just too small for the USA market. When was the last time you drove a Suzuki?
Absolutely agree. Bringing new models to market and addressing most segments is essential to maintaining a 20% share of BEVs and pushing ICE out the market. You can see why the Model Y, pickup truck and maybe a compact sedan are important next steps. The Semi is hugely important too. Roadster 2 is fun, but probably least important.
And actually, I've never even ridden in a Suzuki.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Those itty bitty cars make virtually zero profit.
If Tesla cleans VW's clock in the S3XY segment VW is going bankrupt.
Some places buy tiny cars because the streets and parking spaces are tiny and others because the cost of petrol/diesel is very high relative to USA. And some it is obviously both.
SEXY remedies the second problem and shrinks the itty bitty segment.
BTW I drove a Suzuki XL7 about 10 years ago.
It seems very obvious to me that Elon is very confident in Robotaxis but he still is not betting everything on them - this is why they are still working on the game of pennies. He has a backup plan which is just to continue making better, faster, cheaper EVs than everyone else with the best safety features.
I'm sure he does genuinely believe Tesla have a clear path to solving Robotaxis in the near term, but he understands no technological innovation is ever guaranteed, particularly in a specific timeframe.
Elon wouldn't generically fire anyone in the company for scepticism on Robotaxis. He knows he has a better intuition for innovation and has put more thought into the bottlenecks to Robotaxis than almost anyone else, so he can understand if most people still do not get it.
In the Autopilot team, I think there is a chance Elon would fire people if they don't believe Robotaxis are possible, but more likely he would just remove them from management positions. Whether or not this increases the odds of reaching the goal i don't know.
Apple never spent 15 years building up the IP to build smartphone manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. A key part of the bottleneck to ending vehicle carbon emissions is how fast new capacity can be built. Tesla can build new car factories faster than anyone else, so outsourcing to someone slower will slow down the transition. I agree that the manufacturing cost savings from vertical integration will become less and less important in a Robotaxi world, but the advantage is speed of rollout of new capacity and speed of iteration of current models in existing factories.
Apple also did not start building its iphones in old Nokia factories. Much of the equipment and tooling has to be tailor made for the car model, and for the rest Tesla will want the latest equipment (often designed in-house) rather than 10 year old machinery. Some existing ICE factory buildings are likely to be bought by Tesla with old equipment stripped out (as with Fremont), but often it will be easier to build from scratch and without having to acquire legacy unionised workforces.
EV Sales: Norway August 2019
Norway August results. Ytd, PEV market share is 55% and Tesla claims 25.4% share of the PEV market. This also means Tesla has a 14% share of the auto market in Norway.
PHEV, HEV, diesel ICE and gasoline ICE are all losing market share. In August, BEV registrations were up +13% y/y, while the market as a whole was down -17% y/y.
I think we should not be shaken by a declining auto market. Rather is is a huge opportunity for BEVs and Tesla to gain market share. The overall decline in demand means that supply constraints on the BEV side are not nearly as much of a barrier for grabbing market share as they usually are. So we get a better picture of relative demand when BEV supply is not so disadvantaged. Surprise, surprise, 14% of Norwegian auto buyers demand a Tesla.
How does Tesla hold onto and build a 14% market share as the market recovers over the next few years? They've got to keep cranking up production volume, and they need to add more models to their line up. Norway will be hungry for Model Y. Tesla sales 47% more Model X than Model S. This suggests to me an appetite for a more affordable crossover vehicle. Model 3 commands 11.6% share of the market. The Model Y could match this. So maybe once there is adequate supply of Model Y it gets 12% share, Model 3 10%, Model S/X 3%. This gets Tesla to a combined 25% share (of total auto market).
This level of market share, 14% to 25%, sets Tesla up as the dominant automaker in Norway. Tesla infrastructure (charging and service networks) will lock in a durable advantage. It's hard to fathom just how ubiquitous Superchargers could be in a land where Tesla has 25% market share. The network could be as dense as any retail fueling network. Or consider that for the moment ICE (both diesel and gasoline) are just 20% market share. So over the longer run Tesla could be filling more vehicles than all petrol stations combined. At any rate, grabbing market share now helps lock in infrastructural and network advantage for the longer term.
Norway August results. Ytd, PEV market share is 55% and Tesla claims 25.4% share of the PEV market. This also means Tesla has a 14% share of the auto market in Norway.
PHEV, HEV, diesel ICE and gasoline ICE are all losing market share. In August, BEV registrations were up +13% y/y, while the market as a whole was down -17% y/y.
I think we should not be shaken by a declining auto market. Rather is is a huge opportunity for BEVs and Tesla to gain market share. The overall decline in demand means that supply constraints on the BEV side are not nearly as much of a barrier for grabbing market share as they usually are. So we get a better picture of relative demand when BEV supply is not so disadvantaged. Surprise, surprise, 14% of Norwegian auto buyers demand a Tesla.
How does Tesla hold onto and build a 14% market share as the market recovers over the next few years? They've got to keep cranking up production volume, and they need to add more models to their line up. Norway will be hungry for Model Y. Tesla sales 47% more Model X than Model S. This suggests to me an appetite for a more affordable crossover vehicle. Model 3 commands 11.6% share of the market. The Model Y could match this. So maybe once there is adequate supply of Model Y it gets 12% share, Model 3 10%, Model S/X 3%. This gets Tesla to a combined 25% share (of total auto market).
This level of market share, 14% to 25%, sets Tesla up as the dominant automaker in Norway. Tesla infrastructure (charging and service networks) will lock in a durable advantage. It's hard to fathom just how ubiquitous Superchargers could be in a land where Tesla has 25% market share. The network could be as dense as any retail fueling network. Or consider that for the moment ICE (both diesel and gasoline) are just 20% market share. So over the longer run Tesla could be filling more vehicles than all petrol stations combined. At any rate, grabbing market share now helps lock in infrastructural and network advantage for the longer term.
Personal feedback after visiting the Lofoten archipelago last week. First time I drove an EV for more than 24h. I rented a BMW i3 rom Sixt in Bodø as I couldn't get a Tesla anywhere. EV made probably 1/3 of the cars in the city although it's a small one. I can't believe the rental companies don't promote EV (should be cheaper for them to service) as they are also probably less expensive to rent than ICE in Norway (mostly free parking, 50% discount on ferry trips, no toll fees, etc). I haven't done a proper comparison yet though.
The i3 had suffient range to cross the Lofoten back and forth (Å > Andenes is a 350 km drive) but fortunatenly, all the road are capped at 80 km/h and I didn't need much heating/AC in these temperature (~13°C).
I was suprised to see very few Tesla on the archipelago, probably b/c the cars are mostly rented by tourists' and most aren't familar with EV yet.
There are free chargers in most places (mostly Tesla destination chargers though, fortunately the one in Andenes is made available to all for free by the local Tesla Motors Club). You still have to look for them with a dedicated app though. I paid only 1 charget mid trip (in Solvaer), which worked well but took me 30 min to set up (install the app, adding a credit card, understanding how to iniate the charge), which was ~10€ to add ~200km range.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
I'm pissed at this author for excluding Tesla from the analysis of the EV market. Even so there's some good stuff here.
Notice that Cherry and BYD get over 40% of revenue from EVs. So they have relatively little legacy ICE business to lose. As the EV wave hits, they along with Tesla of course will ride the wave to higher market share, while others are still paddling behind the wave trying to catch up.
I'm pissed at this author for excluding Tesla from the analysis of the EV market. Even so there's some good stuff here.
Notice that Cherry and BYD get over 40% of revenue from EVs. So they have relatively little legacy ICE business to lose. As the EV wave hits, they along with Tesla of course will ride the wave to higher market share, while others are still paddling behind the wave trying to catch up.
It struck me reading this how dramatic the difference is in cost to put a charging station VS a petrol station. Bonus when one would ever need to remove said station. If your removing a gas station the Environmental clean up cost are pretty high. Not so much with a charging station.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Sales y/y
Toyota 169,656 -16.5%
Honda 113,925 -14.1
Nissan 101,244 -17.6
Sales y/y
Toyota 169,656 -16.5%
Honda 113,925 -14.1
Nissan 101,244 -17.6
Lovely but sadly the steep declines are apparently exaggerated by Labor Day falling early in the month so many Labor Day weekend sales were booked in August. Declining but not as much as the numbers suggest.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Total US 2019 automotive sales YTD through Q3 declined 1% vs 2018.
On the bright side last year Tesla was estimated at .8% market share and now is estimated to be at 1.1% according to goodcarbadcar.net
On the bright side last year Tesla was estimated at .8% market share and now is estimated to be at 1.1% according to goodcarbadcar.net
I loved that Musk nonchalantly dropped the idea that Tesla would aim to replace 1% of the global auto fleet and note that would imply about 20M vehicles per year.
It was a little oblique to frame this as a percent of the fleet rather than share of the new vehicle market. But this does imply a 20% to 25% market share.
I would point out that this is roughly the share of VW and Toyota combined.
Perhaps Musk has be reading this thread. Just grab onto 20% share of the EV market and hold on tight until that becomes 20% of the whole vehicle market.
Elon, if you are reading this, keep dreaming big. We can do this.
It was a little oblique to frame this as a percent of the fleet rather than share of the new vehicle market. But this does imply a 20% to 25% market share.
I would point out that this is roughly the share of VW and Toyota combined.
Perhaps Musk has be reading this thread. Just grab onto 20% share of the EV market and hold on tight until that becomes 20% of the whole vehicle market.
Elon, if you are reading this, keep dreaming big. We can do this.
EV Sales: Global Top 20 September
Tesla hits 16% market share, 4 pt lead on BYD.
Three months ago, Tesla was at 14% and BYD 13%.
Grab 20, hold on tight.
Tesla hits 16% market share, 4 pt lead on BYD.
Three months ago, Tesla was at 14% and BYD 13%.
Grab 20, hold on tight.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
And that #8 for VW is awfully far back, and the trend is for a widening gap. They've got a lot of work and a lot of money to spend just to staunch the bleeding.
Kiwiadventure
Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
VW plans to sell 300k "electrified" cars in China next year:
Volkswagen shares new details of EV push in China | Autocar
The article interprets that as 300k PHEVs, but electrified is one of those code words that legacy carmakers apply to stuff like idle-stop faux hybrids. Heck, isn't my minivan 'electrified' ? It has a 12v battery, (starter) motor and alternator. Just sayin'....
People are marveling at how auto sales in China look to be declining for 2 years in a row. I'd like to toss out a conjecture that may be contributing to this.
China has a carrot and stick approach to motivating auto producers to sell more NEVs. OOH, there have been subsidies for NEVs, and OTOH there are mandates (I believe) that require a certain minimum fraction of sales to be NEVs. Hitting the fleet requirements is relatively easy, when subsidies allow you to sell otherwise competitively expensive NEVs at an attractive subsidized price. So what happens when those subsidies are cut? Now it is more costly to sell the required number of NEVs. This cost must be pushed back on to conventional vehicles. Consequently, total vehicles sales can decline in response to NEV subsidy cuts. Less carrot means more stick.
At first, the challenge for decarboning road transit was simply to get a lively NEV market going. You have to have an alternative before you can transition anywhere else. But the second challenge is to make sure the fleet of ICE vehicles doesn't get too big while NEVs are scaling up. The final step is to replace the existing ICE fleet with NEVs. That second step is important because it minimizes the scale of the third step, allowing it to be completed in a shorter span of time.
So I'm thinking that in most auto markets policymakers do well to focus more on slowing ICE sales than to speed up EV sales. This encourages some pent up demand for auto to be ready to seize EVs as they come to market.
If this is what is going on in China, we could see some pretty explosive growth in NEVs in the coming years.
China has a carrot and stick approach to motivating auto producers to sell more NEVs. OOH, there have been subsidies for NEVs, and OTOH there are mandates (I believe) that require a certain minimum fraction of sales to be NEVs. Hitting the fleet requirements is relatively easy, when subsidies allow you to sell otherwise competitively expensive NEVs at an attractive subsidized price. So what happens when those subsidies are cut? Now it is more costly to sell the required number of NEVs. This cost must be pushed back on to conventional vehicles. Consequently, total vehicles sales can decline in response to NEV subsidy cuts. Less carrot means more stick.
At first, the challenge for decarboning road transit was simply to get a lively NEV market going. You have to have an alternative before you can transition anywhere else. But the second challenge is to make sure the fleet of ICE vehicles doesn't get too big while NEVs are scaling up. The final step is to replace the existing ICE fleet with NEVs. That second step is important because it minimizes the scale of the third step, allowing it to be completed in a shorter span of time.
So I'm thinking that in most auto markets policymakers do well to focus more on slowing ICE sales than to speed up EV sales. This encourages some pent up demand for auto to be ready to seize EVs as they come to market.
If this is what is going on in China, we could see some pretty explosive growth in NEVs in the coming years.
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