I see 300 cars of those brands on the road for every tesla i see in my area -- granted those companies have been around a lot longer. I'm not crowning any of them the leader in EVs -- Tesla clearly has a firm hold on that position, but I think its naive to think that their collective move towards producing EVs won't take a bite out of potential Tesla sales.
Sooner than you may believe, there will be 30 Tesla vehicles for every one of the AUDI, Jaguar, and Volvo vehicles you see on the road, just about anywhere in the U.S. Your mistake is in the notion that Tesla exists to compete with plug-in hybrids and electric compliance cars. No. Tesla exists to make electric vehicle ubiquitous and affordable for all.
It wasn't long ago that every Tesla created was delayed. They were always late until the weren't. It was much easier for manufacturers to take EVs lightly 5 years ago. With competitors committing to it, that has changed and I expect that the sense of urgency to adapt will as well.
AUDI has been around at least 94 years longer -- you'd think they could do a better job by now. I would be very surprised if AUDI's supposed 90 kWh fully electric version of the Q7 or whatever arrives during 2018. My guess is that it will be mysteriously pushed off to 2020 to 2022 instead. I still harbor serious doubts that any of the traditional automobile manufacturers are in any substantial way
'committed' to electric vehicles at all. I suppose there may be some small hope for AUDI, since they are part of Volkswagen Group, and can no longer offer
'dirty diesel' vehicles to anyone any longer. I certainly believe they should have a
'sense of urgency' but feel they probably don't have one at all, and will end up having a panic attack instead.
Will Tesla need tax credits to sell hundreds of thousands of cars? no...but some of their competitive advantage is disappearing. They have to be $7500 more compelling than rivals, which isn't easy to do -- even with a headstart on their own battery factory.
Their
'competitive advantage' involves considerably more than a Federal EV Tax Credit. The Model S costs less than all its direct competitors before any incentives are considered at all. The driving experience of a Model S surpasses that of ICE cars by a wide, wide margin. The Sales experience from Tesla is unmatched by others who use
'independent franchised dealerships'. The Model ☰ will offer better value than its direct competitors, no matter the drivetrain. The Model ☰ will offer a compelling driving experience that a BMW 330e or i3 will not be able to match. And with a lower starting price than either, while offering Performance of cars from that brand that cost more, the Model ☰ will be an absolute bargain to behold. Heck, the 330e and i3 aren't even compelling compared to the Chevrolet VOLT and Ford Fusion Energi plug-ins. Meanwhile, AUDI A4, Jaguar XE, and Volvo S60 will also get their butts handed to them by Model ☰ sales, well after any Federal EV Tax Credit is around. Nothing those companies do within the next five years will save them from the onslaught.
On what planet is the CR-V a direct competitor to the Model Y? In 2-3 years, when the car comes out, there will be compelling SUVs from premium brands. All THOSE brands need to do is come within 7K of the Model Y in terms of price with similar quality and they will sell them as fast as they can be produced.
The Honda CR-V is the best selling SUV in the U.S. for years on end. Thus, it is the benchmark for the market segment. Assuming the Model Y is to be an SUV, it must target the best selling vehicle as an example of the superiority of electric drive over ICE, just as the Model ☰ has targeted the BMW 3-Series. Just as Ford Escape, Nissan Rogue, and Toyota RAV4 all target the Honda CR-V, so must Tesla if they are to succeed with a mass market SUV to potentially reach 300,000 U.S. Customers per year. None of the high end vehicles from premium brands comes close in sales, so they can be ignored entirely.
Did Chevy fall flat on its face with the Bolt?...yea -- but Chevy is a different caliber of car. Nobody lines up to buy a Chevy. The people who can afford to shell out the premium for a EV over an ICE aren't generally interested or impressed by the Chevy brand. This is a different animal when you get into premium EVs. In the long term, will luxury brands be able to oust Tesla, probably not...but while they have the tax credit advantage, I think they will steal plenty of sales.
You miss the point entirely. The BOLT is a car of a body style that commands a $20,000 premium above the Honda FIT it most closely resembles. This is similar to the mistake GM made with the Cadillac ELR -- it was bad enough it was released at a $35,000 premium over the Chevrolet VOLT, but it was also at a $40,000 premium over Cadillac's own ATS Coupe -- which was an obviously BETTER car in every way. If GM had asked for as much as $42,000 for a fully electric version of the Buick LaCrosse, and called it the
'ELECTRA' they would definitely have people lining up for it. Especially if it were Supercharger compatible with a 238 mile EPA rated range -- and nobody would give a flaming fig about Federal EV Tax Credits for it. The same would be true of a $54,000 fully electric Chevrolet Corvette, or $42,000 Chevrolet Camaro, or $47,000 Cadillac ATS. Thing is? GM doesn't WANT people lining up for a Buick, or any other electric car. They want to sell ICE vehicles, SUVs and Pickup Trucks, for as long as they possibly can do so legally. It isn't about branding, it is about willingness and intent.
