mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
Brad Templeton has some preliminary comments, focusing on sensor limitations. I think he's worth reading: Man dies while driven by Tesla Autopilot | Brad Ideas
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Very sad that this gentleman passed away. Sounds like a horrific accident. And it doesn't sound like there's any way at this point to say whether it was preventable either by action on the part of the driver or autopilot.
Having said that, I have thought long and hard about whether I would use autopilot in its current form (my Model S has the hardware), and I decided that it is just not worth the risk.
Why? The main reason is that, in its current state I believe, for me, it will in some form numb my driving skill, vision and intuition. Bear with me on this.
Driving is a skill and, frankly, most people are not very good at it. This is not a critique of people but just a fact - few people drive enough or have the experience to have developed the instincts and intuition to do it at a high level. Anyone that's gone to a race track and had some lessons on high performance driving will tell you they thought they were a good driver until they did this. At first all you can see was the car in front of you - your brain is just not trained to be able to take in much more than that because it is not used to the sensory bombardment it is getting at high speeds. Corner worker flag stations are almost impossible to spot at first because they are at the periphery. But with practice you get better - instead of seeing one or two cars ahead, you start to see four or five cars ahead. Your mind gets trained and it becomes second nature. Not to mention all you learn about vehicle dynamics and concepts such as weight transfer. And this translates to driving on roads, especially the increased ability to see ahead and spot dangerous situations.
Where I'm going with this is that it could be true that, on average, if autopilot is used the way it is supposed to be used, that it could possibly be safer for the average driver (assuming it is used properly and not as aid to be inattentive). But the average driver is not a very good driver and probably doesn't have very good instincts. I believe for a skilled driver that has developed that almost prosthetic relationship between themselves and their car, as well as trained themselves to really be able to concentrate and spot situations quite far down the road, autopilot significantly adds to the danger of driving.
To me autopilot is somewhat comparable to the dilemma with piloting modern commercial jets. While flying has become exponentially safer in part due to all the fly-by-wire and automated systems in modern jetliners, this also means that pilots have a different role that they used to have. They are now more systems managers than what the average person thinks of as a pilot. Hence, in those cases when a pilot has to take manual control of the aircraft and make snap decisions in critical situations, they may not have the finely tuned skill and intuition to save the day. See, for example, the Air France 447 crash.
One day I fully expect automated cars to be so much safer that human operated cars that it will basically be unethical to for a human to even think about driving a car. The problem is that we are just starting down that long road. To get to full automation we have to get through a rather tumultuous period where we still need our human skill to drive in the safest manner, yet more and more people will be using systems like autopilot which, while possibly safer on balance for some, will be dumbing down that same driver skill that may be needed in those instances where intuition and higher order thinking are needed to avoid a serious accident.
Each person need to make their own decision on whether to use autopilot and be honest with themselves about these issues. I just don't think blanket statements can be made about it that apply to all drivers.
Having said that, I have thought long and hard about whether I would use autopilot in its current form (my Model S has the hardware), and I decided that it is just not worth the risk.
Why? The main reason is that, in its current state I believe, for me, it will in some form numb my driving skill, vision and intuition. Bear with me on this.
Driving is a skill and, frankly, most people are not very good at it. This is not a critique of people but just a fact - few people drive enough or have the experience to have developed the instincts and intuition to do it at a high level. Anyone that's gone to a race track and had some lessons on high performance driving will tell you they thought they were a good driver until they did this. At first all you can see was the car in front of you - your brain is just not trained to be able to take in much more than that because it is not used to the sensory bombardment it is getting at high speeds. Corner worker flag stations are almost impossible to spot at first because they are at the periphery. But with practice you get better - instead of seeing one or two cars ahead, you start to see four or five cars ahead. Your mind gets trained and it becomes second nature. Not to mention all you learn about vehicle dynamics and concepts such as weight transfer. And this translates to driving on roads, especially the increased ability to see ahead and spot dangerous situations.
Where I'm going with this is that it could be true that, on average, if autopilot is used the way it is supposed to be used, that it could possibly be safer for the average driver (assuming it is used properly and not as aid to be inattentive). But the average driver is not a very good driver and probably doesn't have very good instincts. I believe for a skilled driver that has developed that almost prosthetic relationship between themselves and their car, as well as trained themselves to really be able to concentrate and spot situations quite far down the road, autopilot significantly adds to the danger of driving.
To me autopilot is somewhat comparable to the dilemma with piloting modern commercial jets. While flying has become exponentially safer in part due to all the fly-by-wire and automated systems in modern jetliners, this also means that pilots have a different role that they used to have. They are now more systems managers than what the average person thinks of as a pilot. Hence, in those cases when a pilot has to take manual control of the aircraft and make snap decisions in critical situations, they may not have the finely tuned skill and intuition to save the day. See, for example, the Air France 447 crash.
One day I fully expect automated cars to be so much safer that human operated cars that it will basically be unethical to for a human to even think about driving a car. The problem is that we are just starting down that long road. To get to full automation we have to get through a rather tumultuous period where we still need our human skill to drive in the safest manner, yet more and more people will be using systems like autopilot which, while possibly safer on balance for some, will be dumbing down that same driver skill that may be needed in those instances where intuition and higher order thinking are needed to avoid a serious accident.
Each person need to make their own decision on whether to use autopilot and be honest with themselves about these issues. I just don't think blanket statements can be made about it that apply to all drivers.
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Would you consider starting a gofundme fundraising campaign for his family? You or close friends in the EV community seems to be in the best position to handle the money and passing it on to his family.
It is sad to have a veteran died this way who have served our country, made it safely back home, successfully contributed himself in changing the world (either at defending our freedom, or in the field of EV to help reduce climate change)
Probably best to start a new thread in this forum, to separate from the technical discussion of this thread. Thanks for considering.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Another question from a European here: are there really many roads built this way in the US? Assuming it was a "highway" with a speed limit of 55 mph or 65 mph it just seems very weird to me that the road is even built in a way where it is possible to make a left turn to cross. All places in Western Europe where I've lived this would have been solved with either:
1. An off-ramp for the truck followed by a 3/4 circle elevated turn and an overpass to cross the highway.
2. A gradual slow down in to an intersection controlled by traffic lights.
3. The same traffic setup as in this case BUT then the speed limit would never have been more than 40 mph.
1. An off-ramp for the truck followed by a 3/4 circle elevated turn and an overpass to cross the highway.
2. A gradual slow down in to an intersection controlled by traffic lights.
3. The same traffic setup as in this case BUT then the speed limit would never have been more than 40 mph.
Being a resident of the state of florida...I must say that these roads are not common. Do they exist? Yes. Do they span many, many miles of rural roads in Florida? yes. That being said...in comparison to ALL THE OTHER roads and types of highways, they are a minority. They are mostly in rural areas.
The major highways that connect major cities in this state (i75, i95, i10, i595, i275, the turnpike, the sawgrass expressway) are more traditional highways with exit/entrance ramps that are MUCH safer than this highway showed. Even in areas like Tampa where there are a lot of highways without formal entrance/exit ramps, these type of intersections have traffic lights.
Interesting comment @mattwhite . Certainly it has been proven that humans become less adept at learned skills after long periods of not using them, so I think you make a great point there. And I definitely agree with your contention that, for the most part, there are a lot of "not very good" drivers out there.
What I disagree with is the idea that using AP naturally leads to inattention. Based on my extremely limited experience with it, I found the technology actually increased my attention, by allowing me to shift my focus farther down the road, in search of potential situations where the sensors may fail and I would need to take over. I also found myself watching the actions of the other drivers more, in an attempt to anticipate their moves.
So while AP temporarily relieved me of lane keeping and TACC maintained a safe cruise behind the car ahead, I found myself even more engaged in vigilant traffic and conditions watching, yet more relaxed because I didn't have to focus on steering and accelerator inputs.
What I disagree with is the idea that using AP naturally leads to inattention. Based on my extremely limited experience with it, I found the technology actually increased my attention, by allowing me to shift my focus farther down the road, in search of potential situations where the sensors may fail and I would need to take over. I also found myself watching the actions of the other drivers more, in an attempt to anticipate their moves.
So while AP temporarily relieved me of lane keeping and TACC maintained a safe cruise behind the car ahead, I found myself even more engaged in vigilant traffic and conditions watching, yet more relaxed because I didn't have to focus on steering and accelerator inputs.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Can you cite your source? The statistics you've seen seem to be different than what's been reported by Tesla.
They're common in some parts of the country, Florida included. In Massachusetts, south of Boston (near a Tesla dealership), there's a two-lane "highway" that has a similar setup. I travel it every day.
And, the thing you immediately notice is that people have no idea how to judge closing speeds of 60/70MPH. They're used to Main Street closing speeds of 30/40MPH. So, almost without fail, people pull out into traffic from a dead-stop and accelerate at a rate insufficient to escape a 60+MPH closing speed. I see it everyday and need to either brake or change lanes to avoid crashing into people pulling out in front of me.
Back to the Florida accident -- if you couple that speed-misinterpretation with the fact that the truck driver was trailing 40+ feet of vehicle behind him and traveling perpendicular to the roadway, I have no doubt that he misjudged the closing speed of the Tesla.
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JeffK
Well-Known Member
The US is much more sparse than Europe. 40 mph would be painful with those distances, it'd be so boring more drivers would likely get distracted or zone out. Many times in the US if it's a busy intersection then they will put lights, but traffic lights are expensive and impede traffic if there's unlikely to be cross traffic.
Heck the truck driver was busy hearing harry potter in his own head.
Your concept of "slightly worse than the national average" is still a very high rate of fatalities. The US has an epidemic of motor vehicle killings; we're terrible compared to Western Europe, comparable to South Korea, though better than the third world.
Yeah, the statistic here is 1 fatality for every 230 million miles.
These are more common in some parts of the US than others.
Anyway, high speed limits on badly designed roads are definitely more common in the US than in Western Europe. This is one reason why the US has bad rates of car crashes and deaths. We also have really low standards for getting and keeping drivers' licenses. It's hard to sort out how much of our car crash rate is due to one and how much is due to the other.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
and how do we know the driver didn't have a heart attack or some other natural causes reason to lose consciousness before the crash?
There has been a lot of supposition in this thread. We know a lot be we don't know what the driver was doing at the time of the crash. We don't even know that he was still alive before the crash unless I've missed something.
A Harry Potter movie could easily play for several minutes after a drivers death. That he was watching or listening to a movie at some point doesn't mean he was still watching/listening to it by the time the car hit the truck.
Think 1999 South Dakota Learjet crash - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia but with a car and a different cause of loss of consciousness.
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It really depends by region I think.
Where I live it's not uncommon to see streets with 50 mph speed limits with cars from opposite direction yielding to you to turn left for instance. Another example is cars from streets perpendicular yielding to you turning left or right.
When the speed limit is 55 or more I don't see that as much. I don't see that on the freeways at all.
The other thing in America is it is perfectly legal to turn right on a red light (in most places), so you can definitely see some situations that you would not see in Europe.
That said when I was growing up in France in the mid 80s I remember seeing my mom making some scary left turns on freeways with 70mph speed limits and manual transmission. Those days are long gone though
JeffK
Well-Known Member
In many states and on certain stretches of road it's completely normal to drive 10-20 mph over the posted speed limit. From an observer this isn't terribly fast compared to any other car... it's not going to surprise an observer like 100 in a 55 mph zone might. Even if he was speeding that's only a partial fault as the truck driver should still yield.
The truck driver was heading west and at 3:40 PM there would have been sun in his eyes and I believe the Tesla was black so it would have been difficult to see if temporarily blinded by the sun.
The whole thing is just an F'ed up set of circumstances and we can pick it apart all day but it won't change what happened. Hopefully we'll continue to improve autopilot in the next few years so that at least it'll be as much of a "defensive driver" as possible.
Yes, the posted speed limit along that highway is 65 mph.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
There's no evidence he was watching a movie at all. The truck driver claimed the tesla driver was for the news but then later said he never actually saw anything but thought he might have "heard it"??? (as a car rips off its roof on his trailer). Basically he was lying...
jsollender
Member
Having spent the last 2 weeks driving around Scotland, my first time driving on the "opposite" side of the road, I do notice significant differences between roadways in US vs. UK. The use of round abouts are everywhere, more than in USA. Thus, there are more places for entering/exiting than our US standard ramps, or random perpendicular entrances from side streets with only a stop sign for the entering cars. UK roads are much narrower in a general sense on the A and B roads than US single lane highways. There is far less wiggle room for mistakes on UK roads versus wider lanes in US, requiring better driving skills in UK. It would seem that US roads allow for more careless driving and less attention to the rules of driving. Just my 2 pence!
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
and there is no evidence yet that the Tesla driver was still alive and conscious at the time of the collision. The point is we don't know so we need to consider all the possibilities and stop saying definitive statements.
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