My guess is stopping at traffic lights. I also guess it will be 6 months after V9 is out. V9 will probably roll out in November (2018), meaning FSD V3 hardware upgrades will start May 2019, along with the traffic light feature.
I appreciate the optimism, and it's a good guess, but I don't see that happening as a first feature. Or even a second feature. Or a third.
Maybe this will be the sequence, and even this is suspect:
1. Suggested or automatic lane changing on the highway around slower traffic.
2. Suggested or automatic exiting from the highway.
3. Reaction to stop signs - this beyond mere recognition thereof. See staged December 2016 video for that example.
4. Recognition of traffic (red) lights.
5. Reaction to traffic lights.
They can't even get speed limit sign recognition or reaction right with AP2 - something that AP1 does almost completely flawlessly. There were so many errors during a recent trip to South Dakota (mostly in Utah and Wyoming for looooong stretches) that it was just an annoying joke - a joke that decreased my margin of safety in multiple cases as well. This almost 3 years after launch. This is one of the reasons that I no longer recommend AP2 cars to friends. Yet.
Clearly, a hybrid of AP1 and AP2 speed limit recognition and reaction would be optimal - rely upon camera recog/reaction as with AP1 except for those rare cases when the camera's view is blocked right at the moment one passes a speed limit sign that is different than the current speed limit. Then refer to the backup speed limit database and hope it's not broken.
Anyway, it would be niftyspiffykeen if something from the FSD suite reached the patient masses (in microcosm, that would be us) this year, but as noted, first there's the rest of EAP to deliver. So far, I've gotten less than nothing for my $8,000 relative to AP1 other than regressed AS/speed limit recognition, let alone reaction, occasionally possessed (which I suppose is better than repossessed) auto-sensing wipers, and auto-lane change that works every 3rd time I use the turn signal.
My expectation is full EAP features right off the bat at a minimum. I don't expect any FSD features as Elon has said.
No offense, but even this seems overly optimistic for the v9.x launch. My recollection of Elon's words is, paraphrased, that v9.0 sets the stage for future delivery of EAP and FSD features. Maybe we get some UI changes (I hesitate to use the word "fixes"), and maybe auto-lane change, but for openers, that's probably it. Now, at the same time maybe a few more of the cameras get activated... that would be nice.
I don't see substantial FSD until Tesla starts including their own SoC/board late next year (yes, I know they said sooner than that), and even then we'll have to wait longer for the obligatory SvC retrofits - unless we get priority over new, which I doubt.
There's one more piece - 10cm GPS. I don't believe that my car as-is can use that. Even with the new SoC but I could be wrong. And I seem to have it stuck in my mind that they weren't going to launch the traffic light reaction thing until the cars could leverage 10cm GPS. I'm sure someone else remembers about that part and may have already answered that question.
Once we've got the new SoC and 10cm GPS utilization, then yeah - most of the EAP and FSD features promised should be... deployable.
