JeffK
Well-Known Member
Firmware tracker is not an official site just so you're aware and let we said, the firmware is released progressively larger batches and validated at each step.
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boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
Absolutely aware of that and I predict that a wide-spread release will come out before even a handful more of 11.45 are received. It was a placate release.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Perhaps, but like I said, if they did find an issue they'd probably stop the roll out and re-work it like they did earlier this year. It's best for public safety.
I called Tesla Support. They said they have been inundated with calls about not getting AEB. They aren't aware of a problem with the 17.11.45 firmware but they also said the firmware distribution system is having issues. This seems to be corroborated by ev-fw showing a relative lack of firmware updates. I have a service center appointment scheduled to get 17.11.45. It seems that is currently the only way to get an update at the moment.
I will caution that the Tesla Support person didn't really know but it sounded like they had figured out that there was an issue.
1) My own experience. I've had a car since December and have received 7 updates. Only two have not been received within 72 hours of the first car. The first AP2 release which was pubicliy announced as for only 1K cars, and the AEB update.
2) Tons of people on the forums saying they don't have AEB yet (like @boonedocks above)
3) ev-fw.com. Shows only 94 people with AEB after 10 days, with 75% of those in the first 72 hours. Other AP2 builds show 300+ cars getting it within the first 72 hours, hitting over 400 cars in a week. There will always be a person here and there that didn't get it, but when you see 75% of the final number delivered within 3 days, it's clear Tesla wasn't really throttling the roll out.
I'll eat my hat if they roll out 17.11.45 to most cars. They're going to put AEB in a different release to get it to most of the fleet after they get some free beta testing. 17.11.45 is not a slow roll out, it's a limited roll out.
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Well I'm just looking at the claim that only two updates did not roll out fleetwide within 3 days. From your own sources, this is not true. Perhaps you can claim AEB is initially slower than typical rollouts (with the limited data we have so far), but not anything much further.
Uhh, OK? I guess we're being pedantic about 3 vs 5 days, yet we can give Tesla a pass when they are 140 days late on a 9 day estimate?
I see no evidence that any AP2 release didn't hit 75% of the fleet within 5 days, and I see evidence that EAB hasn't yet hit 25% of the fleet after 10 days. What evidence am I missing?
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
75% of the fleet is not fleetwide either. Fleetwide is 100% of the fleet. Again my impression is there are those that don't receive an update even weeks after and that this is quite typical. The only reliable way to get an update quickly is request service to load it (now that the geofence cheat doesn't work anymore).
Also I don't believe there is data that can show 75% of the fleet received a given update. The only data we have is from ev-fw.com, and that is a self selected sample, not a randomly selected sample, so we can't really draw reliable conclusions about how representative of the fleet that data is.
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
You don't believe 400+ AP2 cars is representative of the fleet, and that somehow people self selected themselves to be on ev-fw in a way that it's statistically tied to which cars Tesla delivers software to? I'd sure like to know how I can self-select myself to get Tesla software faster. Sign me up!
And you believe that out of those 400 cars that have gotten AP2 builds in the past, it isn't a valid observation that only 95 cars on a build after 10 days doesn't mean it's a much slower roll out than previously? The previous software version rolled out to 200 cars in one day!
Come on. It's painfully clear they have rolled out EAB to way fewer cars than other AP2 builds, and that the roll out is complete. It went to 25+ cars the first two days and is now at 1 car per day.
I guess you're trying to win the pedantic argument that if there is a single car in the world that has failed to get the update somehow then it isn't "fleet wide". I guess you win that. When you look at the ramp, it's pretty clear that what happens is that some cars are in places where they can't get the update so they end up on the list weeks later. This isn't due to Tesla limiting the roll out.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I'm only rebutting the idea that in general the rollout happens fleetwide (or close) in only a few days. There are about 50k AP2 cars out there (and growing). I'm not saying that the data doesn't suggest that the AEB rollout is slower.
As for what kind of biases a self selected site like ev-fw might introduce, just some quick examples off the top of my head: the site is in English, so people living in countries that do not use English would be far less likely to participate. Also, it is probable people who tend to receive firmware updates quickly would be more prone to participate in a site like this.
Let's say for example 100% of the participants in ev-fw got a new update. Can you really say with any certainty how many percent of the actual fleet got that update? If it was randomly sampled, you can, but unfortunately it's not.
Most of that is true, but it still informative. For the last couple of weeks we've seen the 'current' releases at 1 or 2 a day for ev-fw cars where in the past it's been 10-20 for a 'normal' rollout. And right now, in one partial day 17.17.4 already has 10 reports. Very useful (even though a subset) at seeing what's going on.
Not sure the ev-fw cars are necessarily in the get firmware quickly pool.... I'd still sign up no matter where I was on the list.
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
17.17.4, unless something weird is going on....
For those keeping track at home, week 17 was last week (ending April 29), so this is really new software.Credit to ev-fw, of course!
@MP3Mike Explain...
Because the last few updates have taken 4-5 weeks. Which puts us at around the first week of June for the next update and the first week of july for the one after that. Reaching his 6 month definity and well passing his "December 2016" expectation.
Yet we don't even have ap1 parity and are missing so many features while performance pales in comparison.
Features like
- Seeing different classes of cars (sedan, suv, trucks, semi)
- Pedestrian detection
- Seeing cars in other lanes
- recognizing curbs, barrier, road edge as lanes
- reading signs and adjusting speed limit
- handling curves
- handling rain
etc.
If Elon vows to provides something and people make purchases including stocks off his vows, he ought to own up to it.
Because the last few updates have taken 4-5 weeks. Which puts us at around the first week of June for the next update and the first week of july for the one after that. Reaching his 6 month definity and well passing his "December 2016" expectation.
Yet we don't even have ap1 parity and are missing so many features while performance pales in comparison.
Features like
- Seeing different classes of cars (sedan, suv, trucks, semi)
- Pedestrian detection
- Seeing cars in other lanes
- recognizing curbs, barrier, road edge as lanes
- reading signs and adjusting speed limit
- handling curves
- handling rain
etc.
If Elon vows to provides something and people make purchases including stocks off his vows, he ought to own up to it.
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