FSD beta waiting game

[TresLA]

Yes, Tesla should be more transparent about when FSD will be released. I think, part of the problem, is Elon keeps thinking FSD is close to being solved. So he keeps thinking FSD will be ready for wide release sooner than it is.

But like I said, don't worry about getting in the queue for FSD Beta. FSD Beta is NOT the public release of FSD. FSD Beta is just "early access" to the very beta version of FSD. FSD Beta is like when a gaming company invites people to be among the first to play a game that is still in beta development before it is released to the public. You will get FSD when it is released publicly. It's just a question of when Tesla considers FSD good enough for public release.

I think I understand the sentiment, but I don’t think it’s a lack of transparency. Tesla isn’t hiding anything (lack of transparency), but is more a lack of humility. Elon/Tesla keeps thinking and honestly saying it’s coming sooner than it is because they haven’t realized just how hard a general SAE level 5 self-driving car is in a world of human drivers. Too much of driving is social queues and “not rule-based” inter-driver communication. I don’t think it’s impossible nor not in our lifetimes, but I do think it’s going to take a lot more time and work to get there. Or Tesla will just have to lower the bar and go with some sort of level 4 (geofenced).

 

[VT_EE]

I used to be a FSD fan with high hopes. Not anymore since I got FSDBeta a year ago. It is so far from being useful in the DC area, I've given up. Maybe HW4 can save it. I can feel my blood pressure increase 30 points every time I turn it on. This isn't true with AP, which I use all the time.

 

[TresLA]

I used to be a FSD fan with high hopes. Not anymore since I got FSDBeta a year ago. It is so far from being useful in the DC area, I've given up. Maybe HW4 can save it. I can feel my blood pressure increase 30 points every time I turn it on. This isn't true with AP, which I use all the time.

Yes, FSDb is not for the faint of heart. It requires more attention and vigilance than production AP on surface streets, and isn’t as relaxing. Predicting whether HW3 is capable or not isn’t clear, since basing one’s conclusion off of the current state of things isn’t definitive in a world of software OTA updates. It makes sense the existing camera angles are fine since humans can’t see from the front or rear bumpers’ perspectives either. But predicting the future is hard when it comes to whether software improvements will be able to see and understand well enough given the available resolution and available data in the pixels.

 

[Rikster]

This is not our experience nor the experience of others I know. There was no advantage to holding off updates. If your VIN is picked, then you get FSDb. Tesla lets your car get the latest beta branch version, which means you may lose some of the newest features you recently got.

I don't think it works like that, unfortunately. Pretty much no one running 2022.24.X or 2022.28.X has received FSDb during this big push. Some people who received a notification that 2022.24.X was being pushed to them purposefully did not install the update, and subsequently did receive FSDb. Tesla apparently really doesn't want to push people back to a previous update. I have 2022.28.4, and so I was left out of this push. A lot of us in this condition are hoping FSD 69.3 moves up to the 2022.28.X branch so we can get it after AI Day. I'm not holding my breath...

 

[TresLA]

I don't think it works like that, unfortunately. Pretty much no one running 2022.24.X or 2022.28.X has received FSDb during this big push. Some people who received a notification that 2022.24.X was being pushed to them purposefully did not install the update, and subsequently did receive FSDb. Tesla apparently really doesn't want to push people back to a previous update. I have 2022.28.4, and so I was left out of this push. A lot of us in this condition are hoping FSD 69.3 moves up to the 2022.28.X branch so we can get it after AI Day. I'm not holding my breath...

We would need a bigger data sample size than what TeslaFi offers to know.

 

[clydeiii]

OP, just to be clear, your car can't be on a version beyond where FSD is, which lags the general release. If you take a look at the version numbers of software, they first begin with 202x (currently x=2), then the .xx. field is the week of 2022 in which the build was compiled. FSDb builds are all 2022.20.x.x at the moment. If your non-FSDb car is on 2022.24 or .28, you very likely cannot get FSDb until Beta catches up to the current production build. Will that be at the end of the month? Next month? No one knows. If your car wants to update to something even further in the future, say 2022.32.xx, deny that update.

 

[clydeiii]

I am really disappointing for paying the same price but only getting part of a product. Tesla should publish the criteria how they select what buyers should receive FSD beta and what buyers cannot. In this way, the buyers can make an inform decision when they decide to purchase FSD. Tesla should be transparent and set right expectations for their customers.

If it makes you feel any better, I bought FSD back in 2018 and I didn't get FSDb access until 2021. I guess that doesn't make you feel any better. But here's the thing that most people don't understand: we're on the cutting edge of technology here. Literally no one on earth really knows how to get this tech to work. Tesla is figuring it out in real time. That you even have the possibility of getting a front-row seat to this emergence of a brand-new tech, well, take it for what it is and consider yourself lucky.

 

[diplomat33]

Literally no one on earth really knows how to get this tech to work. Tesla is figuring it out in real time.

I disagree. There are several companies with L4. Is the L4 perfect? No, of course not, but it works. I would say companies who have deployed L4 probably have a pretty good idea of how to get this tech to work. And they all have better FSD tech than Tesla. IMO, this notion that nobody knows how to do autonomous driving and Tesla is the only one "figuring it out" is ridiculous, especially since Tesla has not deployed any L4.

 

[Forensic]

You will get what you paid for. The full FSD has not actually been released yet. FSD beta is simply an "early access" to the beta version. But everybody who paid for FSD will get the full version when Tesla releases it publicly.

Tesla has been saying FSD on city streets was coming “later this year” since around 2016 and people paid for it for that feature set. It’s completely reasonable to be annoyed when waiting to be “invited” to use the beta.

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla has been saying FSD on city streets was coming “later this year” since around 2016 and people paid for it for that feature set. It’s completely reasonable to be annoyed when waiting to be “invited” to use the beta.

They have a right to be annoyed that they don't have "FSD on city streets" yet. But FSD Beta is just an early access beta testing of "FSD on city streets". There is no right to get the early access beta testing. There is only the right to get the publicly released version. To use my gaming analogy, if you pre-order a game (which is basically what paying for FSD is) then you have a right to get the publicly released version of the game. You don't necessarily have a right to get into any early access special beta testing of the game before it is released, not unless the terms of the pre-order specifically mention early access as part of the pre-order. In the case of FSD, Tesla never said that paying for FSD automatically gets you into the beta program, they just said that paying for FSD will get you FSD when it is publicly released. It is not publicly released yet. But to be fair, I think part of the confusion is that FSD Beta is going to so many owners now that people feel like FSD Beta is the public release when it is not.

 

[hw13]

They have a right to be annoyed that they don't have "FSD on city streets" yet. But FSD Beta is just an early access beta testing of "FSD on city streets". There is no right to get the early access beta testing. There is only the right to get the publicly released version. To use my gaming analogy, if you pre-order a game (which is basically what paying for FSD is) then you have a right to get the publicly released version of the game. You don't necessarily have a right to get into any early access special beta testing of the game before it is released, not unless the terms of the pre-order specifically mention early access as part of the pre-order. In the case of FSD, Tesla never said that paying for FSD automatically gets you into the beta program, they just said that paying for FSD will get you FSD when it is publicly released. It is not publicly released yet. But to be fair, I think part of the confusion is that FSD Beta is going to so many owners now that people feel like FSD Beta is the public release when it is not.

NOAP is beta and is publicly released. Beta or not is not the point. People paid for it 6 years ago and expect to use it, beta or not.

 

[diplomat33]

NOAP is beta and is publicly released. Beta or not is not the point. People paid for it 6 years ago and expect to use it, beta or not.

I agree. And people will get what they paid for when it is publicly released.

But Tesla uses the word "beta" in two different ways. FSD beta is "early access beta". It is not considered publicly released yet. NOA is also "beta" but it is publicly released. That's because Tesla still uses the term "beta" even after public release to avoid liability. It sounds confusing, I know.

 

[ZuleMYP]

Yep; that's the kicker. Since they seem to call publically facing features BETA similar to GMail etc they should call the limited release trial an alpha. But semantics is semantics. I'm happy to wait as it's quite public that they ARE working toward this end goal.

 

[clydeiii]

I disagree. There are several companies with L4. Is the L4 perfect? No, of course not, but it works. I would say companies who have deployed L4 probably have a pretty good idea of how to get this tech to work. And they all have better FSD tech than Tesla. IMO, this notion that nobody knows how to do autonomous driving and Tesla is the only one "figuring it out" is ridiculous, especially since Tesla has not deployed any L4.

In my opinion their L4 is way less sophisticated than Tesla’s L2. I wish we could get past these meaningless distinctions. Also those companies aren’t selling me their L4 solutions so it’s irrelevant to me as a consumer.

 

[diplomat33]

In my opinion their L4 is way less sophisticated than Tesla’s L2.

I don't know how you can possibly say that. Their L4 is way more sophisticated than Tesla's L2. They have more sensors than Tesla. They have advanced sensor fusion. They also have way more advanced neural nets for perception, behavior prediction and planning. Their L4 can literally drive safely and reliably on their own with no human driver because they have incredibly detailed and accurate perception from dozens of sensors that can track 100's of objects, and can accurately predict behavior of objects, understand body language of pedestrians, hand signals from law enforcement. etc... and determine safe path in real-time, all from deep neural nets. It is way more advanced than Tesla's FSD.

I wish we could get past these meaningless distinctions. Also those companies aren’t selling me their L4 solutions so it’s irrelevant to me as a consumer.

It is not a meaningless distinction. Is the differences between an airplane and a boat meaningless to you? They might not be selling you the car but it matters if the system can drive on its own without supervision or if it requires driver supervision. That makes a big difference. If you don't understand the difference between autonomous and not autonomous, how can you even say that nobody knows how autonomous driving works? And you can't say that nobody knows how "the tech" works and then when people try to explain what the tech is, just go "I don't care, the tech is meaningless to me".

 

[bizi]

I am really disappointing for paying the same price but only getting part of a product. Tesla should publish the criteria how they select what buyers should receive FSD beta and what buyers cannot. In this way, the buyers can make an inform decision when they decide to purchase FSD. Tesla should be transparent and set right expectations for their customers.

I bought my car in Jan and I just got into the beta program last week. You HAVE TO WAIT. There is no other way around it. I know it's frustrating and annoying but be patient. It's worth the wait.

 

[clydeiii]

I don't know how you can possibly say that. Their L4 is way more sophisticated than Tesla's L2. They have more sensors than Tesla. They have advanced sensor fusion. They also have way more advanced neural nets for perception, behavior prediction and planning. Their L4 can literally drive safely and reliably on their own with no human driver because they have incredibly detailed and accurate perception from dozens of sensors that can track 100's of objects, and can accurately predict behavior of objects, understand body language of pedestrians, hand signals from law enforcement. etc... and determine safe path in real-time, all from deep neural nets. It is way more advanced than Tesla's FSD.

More sensors == crutch. Tesla is attempting to do driving like humans. Everyone else is attempting driving like a computer. And Tesla doesn't geofence you in...it works anywhere in USA/Canada. Everyone else's L4 is bounded as if it was Grand Theft Auto. Crutch.

I'm sure Waymo's tech is super great (clearly Google AI tech is incredible) but their solution is too narrow for consumers, at least right now. I can buy FSD. I can't buy Waymo's. So even if Waymo's is better, it's irrelevant to me. My claim was "no one has figured out this tech" and my claim is right if you want to solve the problem like Tesla wants to solve it. My claim was you get to have a front-row view of the solution in a Tesla, which is true. No other company allows me this view.

 

[diplomat33]

More sensors == crutch. Tesla is attempting to do driving like humans. Everyone else is attempting driving like a computer. And Tesla doesn't geofence you in...it works anywhere in USA/Canada. Everyone else's L4 is bounded as if it was Grand Theft Auto. Crutch.

I'm sure Waymo's tech is super great (clearly Google AI tech is incredible) but their solution is too narrow for consumers, at least right now. I can buy FSD. I can't buy Waymo's. So even if Waymo's is better, it's irrelevant to me. My claim was "no one has figured out this tech" and my claim is right if you want to solve the problem like Tesla wants to solve it. My claim was you get to have a front-row view of the solution in a Tesla, which is true. No other company allows me this view.

Not these dumb talking points again. Sigh.

 

[clydeiii]

You can say more sensor is more sophisticated, and you might even be right. But that isn’t how I think about it. The more it resembles AGI, the more sophisticated it is to me. I see Tesla edging towards AGI here.

 

[diplomat33]

You can say more sensor is more sophisticated, and you might even be right. But that isn’t how I think about it. The more it resembles AGI, the more sophisticated it is to me. I see Tesla edging towards AGI here.

Tesla is not edging towards AGI. Tesla is not doing AGI.