FSD may require a hardware upgrade...

[boonedocks]

Have you noticed Elon’s recent radio silence concerning AP? Earlier he was very often promising improvements and timelines. Like infamous “three months maybe, six months for sure” You can interpret this different ways, but I believe the recent EAP lawsuit has caused his legal team to caution him of giving any forward looking promises..

I have been very outspoken and critical of Elon’s public statements on EAP / FSD. In several threads I said I would rather hear crickets chirping than lies and misrepresentations. Stretching the truth and pie in the sky are not fare to your customers or potential customers. Sell what you have and say what it will do....not what you think it will do tomorrow when you have no intentions or proof that it will work tomorrow.

From promises of Silky Smooth SS to Something Special SS it has been SOS quite some time now...

 

[supratachophobia]

Tesla would be sued to Kingdom Come if they failed to install the necessary hardware free of charge to customers who bought FSD. They'd better budget for that now just in case.

Why? They got away with 691HP (In all countries except Norway), and by Elon saying that "a Tesla could drive to your door to come pick you up on private property" when APv1 was announced.

 

[croman]

Why? They got away with 691HP (In all countries except Norway), and by Elon saying that "a Tesla could drive to your door to come pick you up on private property" when APv1 was announced.

Nothing is stopping a P90DL owner from suing Tesla about the 691HP claim. Further, Tesla has an argument about the dsrive to your door and pick you up in that Summon, if everything works out well in placement of door to garage, could do that. I'm not saying its not deceptive, but the summon claim is not as cut and dried as 691HP.

 

[BigD0g]

Just to rehash this entire thread more succinctly:

F-ck

 

[OilSucks]

I regret purchasing the FSD package on my Model S after experiencing AP2 and the limitations within. I think we have quite a few more years before FSD is even close to ready. AP2 still requires a high level of focus and concentration, especially on anything with crests, semis, or overpasses. Oh and some bright sunny days actually make me more anxious than it being foggy or while driving at night.

 

[Quasar]

Oh and some bright sunny days actually make me more anxious than it being foggy or while driving at night.

There has to be a strong co-relation between the solar angle and AP2 disconnects.

 

[OilSucks]

There has to be a strong co-relation between the solar angle and AP2 disconnects.

Without a doubt, but even worse than disconnects are sometimes the hard turns I've experienced. One day I was driving back from Manteca, CA through Dublin, CA and was getting on to the 580 near the 238 transfer location. It was a bright and sunny day around 5pm with no one around me (luckily!) and the car took a HARD right hand dive that would have ended pretty badly had I not had my hand on the wheel. It was pretty damn jarring and I can only attribute it to the sun being right in the cameras lenses. I've let my AP2 system handle that transfer turn (it's not an off ramp, just a 4 lane sweeping turn that continues on to a freeway) many times before without issue so I know it wasn't any line issues or semi truck issues.

 

[cynix]

Further, Tesla has an argument about the dsrive to your door and pick you up in that Summon, if everything works out well in placement of door to garage, could do that. I'm not saying its not deceptive, but the summon claim is not as cut and dried as 691HP.

That argument would only work in the US (and maybe a small number of other countries). Here in Australia, Summon doesn't work in underground car parks where there's no mobile reception, and the car doesn't have Homelink so it can't open the garage door automatically.

 

[dknisely]

@Elon has suggested that Tesla will pull off a coast-to-coast self-driving stunt by early 2018, and that might, in fact, be possible. Remember, he can launch the "stunt" a thousand times and only publicize the one case that makes it across the country. Good marketing; bad science.

In any case, a highway coast-to-coast demo is completely meaningless toward actual FSD (L5 or even L4). It is just a gimmick like the 2016 Mountain View area demo joke that probably wasn't even running Tesla software to a large extent. They drove 500 miles over and over on a fixed course until it succeeded and then stopped even attempting FSD demos (as far as we know).

 

[stopcrazypp]

@Elon has suggested that Tesla will pull off a coast-to-coast self-driving stunt by early 2018, and that might, in fact, be possible. Remember, he can launch the "stunt" a thousand times and only publicize the one case that makes it across the country. Good marketing; bad science.

In any case, a highway coast-to-coast demo is completely meaningless toward actual FSD (L5 or even L4). It is just a gimmick like the 2016 Mountain View area demo joke that probably wasn't even running Tesla software to a large extent. They drove 500 miles over and over on a fixed course until it succeeded and then stopped even attempting FSD demos (as far as we know).

Sigh. I guess I have to set the record straight again on this...there were two videos. The first took many tries largely because most of the footage was thrown away because of raining (video had no rain, so none of that footage was used). The second video was done in November when Tesla drove only 20 miles (and didn't have any disengagements during those 20 miles).
AP2 - Definitely heading in the right direction...

 

[stopcrazypp]

He didnt say that.



He talks about AP functionality, not AP hardware.

And your quote is from the investor letter, not something Elon tweeted out to the general public. Elon's likely talking about how they are planning to position the Model S/X/3 going forward, not about Model S/X at that moment in time meeting the Model 3 (which wasn't out yet at the time, not even for employees). That's why they are adding HW2.5 now to the S/X before they get through the employee Model 3s.

 

[Swift]

Sigh. I guess I have to set the record straight again on this...there were two videos. The first took many tries largely because most of the footage was thrown away because of raining (video had no rain, so none of that footage was used). The second video was done in November when Tesla drove only 20 miles (and didn't have any disengagements during those 20 miles).
AP2 - Definitely heading in the right direction...

Do you seriously believe that? I mean you really can't say you have the actual facts behind the production of that video.

That video was done almost a year ago at this point. If they were that far along then and there there were no disconnects at all over 20 miles of self driving, then where the heck is FSD or any partial features even resembling FSD??? It's certainly not held up in the hands of regulators.

Tesla's lack of communication here is telling and when they do communicate it is generally misleading or incomplete.

 

[J1mbo]

And your quote is from the investor letter, not something Elon tweeted out to the general public. Elon's likely talking about how they are planning to position the Model S/X/3 going forward, not about Model S/X at that moment in time meeting the Model 3 (which wasn't out yet at the time, not even for employees). That's why they are adding HW2.5 now to the S/X before they get through the employee Model 3s.

I used that quote because it is very explicit and doesn't require any interpretation.

"Model S, X and 3 will all have equivalent Autopilot functionality". Not performance. Not hardware. Just functionality.

Of course you are right in that they are actually aligning the hardware across the range, but ultimately they have only committed to offer the same functionality.

 

[u00mem9]

I used that quote because it is very explicit and doesn't require any interpretation.

"Model S, X and 3 will all have equivalent Autopilot functionality". Not performance. Not hardware. Just functionality.

Of course you are right in that they are actually aligning the hardware across the range, but ultimately they have only committed to offer the same functionality.

I believe the most likely explanation is that Elon is correct, and NONE of the models will have Autopilot that works well enough to exit beta. ever.

 

[dknisely]

Sigh. I guess I have to set the record straight again on this...there were two videos. The first took many tries largely because most of the footage was thrown away because of raining (video had no rain, so none of that footage was used). The second video was done in November when Tesla drove only 20 miles (and didn't have any disengagements during those 20 miles).
AP2 - Definitely heading in the right direction...

To my knowledge (definitely could be wrong), Tesla hasn't been doing any autonomous testing since 2016 (none filed with CA authorities or spotted in the wild), and the complete lack of any demos or even hints of demos seems like pretty strong evidence that they were using toy code (just like virtually every other self-driving project out there) to drive the same kind of route that looks cool, but isn't all that hard as long as you have a human supervising just in case a pedestrian or biker (read: actor) misses a cue. The MV demos all look alike for good reasons. That demo code isn't even .1% of what is required for L4, let alone L5.

Don't get me wrong -- I am a huge Tesla and Elon fan and knew exactly what I was getting into in December 2016, and I paid for EAP and FSD just as an incentive to get to solid L3 and maybe someday a little L4 on the highway. Obviously the L5 goal was merely a way to end up at L4 (maybe), while also learning what it will really take to do L5 with AP3 or AP4 or AP5. But my most pessimistic assessment never predicted AP2 far underperforming AP1 a year later or that Elon wouldn't find a way to make auto-wipers work without a rain sensor (at least in a crappy way!). The MobileEye situation was actually a catastrophe, and I sure hope Tesla can recover, but my expectations for AP2 cars are lower than AP1 at this point. AP2 may never drive as smoothly and confidently. [One exception -- AP2 does detect previously-untracked stopped cars that you come upon much better than AP1, and I'm happy for that. Vision >> radar for that purpose, and AP1 will never handle that dangerous case.]

 

[AmpedRealtor]

I hope those in the forum who initially claimed Tesla was the one who dumped Mobileye have now circled back to the truth. Mobileye's CEO stated that they severed their relationship with Tesla over concern that Tesla was improperly using Mobileye technology in unsafe ways. This happened after the highly publicized Autopilot death that prompted an NHTSA investigation.

At the end of the day, losing Mobileye as a partner was a devastating blow to Tesla's automation plans and Musk put the best lipstick he could on that pig. Tesla is being far too aggressive with the rollout of Autopilot and it has made its own bed, so to speak.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I hope those in the forum who initially claimed Tesla was the one who dumped Mobileye have now circled back to the truth. Mobileye's CEO stated that they severed their relationship with Tesla over concern that Tesla was improperly using Mobileye technology in unsafe ways. This happened after the highly publicized Autopilot death that prompted an NHTSA investigation.

At the end of the day, losing Mobileye as a partner was a devastating blow to Tesla's automation plans and Musk put the best lipstick he could on that pig. Tesla is being far too aggressive with the rollout of Autopilot and it has made its own bed, so to speak.

Yes, Tesla was going with Nvidia in the longer term, but MobilEye was going to be a part of the medium-term. The empty slot on AP2 board speaks its own language. Yes, Drive PX was the long-term plan, but ditching MobilEye so soon was definitely not the plan, hence we got the EAP we did...

Mind you, there is SOME truth to Tesla's side. They did decide to skip on MobilEye's "AP 1.5" solution and go to Nvidia Drive PX faster instead... but EyeQ3 was supposed to remain as a part of the system for the foreseeable future and that's obviously where MobilEye said no due to events.

 

[Mo City]

@Elon has suggested that Tesla will pull off a coast-to-coast self-driving stunt by early 2018, and that might, in fact, be possible. Remember, he can launch the "stunt" a thousand times and only publicize the one case that makes it across the country. Good marketing; bad science.

In any case, a highway coast-to-coast demo is completely meaningless toward actual FSD (L5 or even L4). It is just a gimmick like the 2016 Mountain View area demo joke that probably wasn't even running Tesla software to a large extent. They drove 500 miles over and over on a fixed course until it succeeded and then stopped even attempting FSD demos (as far as we know).

Elon said ANY Tesla with FSD will be able to replicate the same coast-to-coast self-driving sequence. That doesn't sound like a gimmick to me.

It ain't gonna happen by December 2017, that's for sure.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Elon said ANY Tesla with FSD will be able to replicate the same coast-to-coast self-driving sequence. That doesn't sound like a gimmick to me.

It ain't gonna happen by December 2017, that's for sure.

I think @dknisely's point is not that the hardware can't do it, i.e. the hardware in the production cars. Surely a specific, good weather route should be doable.

The point seems to be, without being released into the wild and being used on numerous routes by regular folks, it doesn't necessarily say much about the actual robustness of the system. After all, Tesla can train it for a specific route (or a few variations), unlike in the real world where routes are many more...

 

[Mo City]

I think @dknisely's point is not that the hardware can't do it, i.e. the hardware in the production cars. Surely a specific, good weather route should be doable.

The point seems to be, without being released into the wild and being used on numerous routes by regular folks, it doesn't necessarily say much about the actual robustness of the system. After all, Tesla can train it for a specific route (or a few variations), unlike in the real world where routes are many more...

He said it won't follow a fixed route and would react to traffic and congestion. Maybe that doesn't mean anything at all. We'll see.

The promises of FSD are far and away my biggest hangup with Elon Musk. I'm a huge fan (and also a Tesla investor). But he has completely lost credibility with me on autonomy.

To set the record straight, I (like most here) get tired of the Negative Nellies that pounce on every word or announcement looking for something to parse and criticize. I also understand nearly all of his timelines are far too optimistic. But I feel his AP2.0 comments last year will haunt him in the future. He went a step too far IMO.