Full AP 'It'll come sooner than people think...'

[ShadowR55]

According to Electrek and the earnings call, Elon Musk is saying fully autonomous driving is coming soon and info will be released by the end of the year. I hope that our cars are upgradeable or that they start installing the necessary hardware soon.

Elon Musk on Tesla fully autonomous car: ‘What we’ve got will blow people’s minds, it blows my mind… it’ll come sooner than people think’

 

[whitex]

"Sooner than people think"? I wonder if this is the kind of deadline Elon accepts from his employees. ;-) What people? Some people think it's going to be a decade, some are holding off confirming their orders hoping it's coming next week. It's really a meaningless statement for the media. I'm still waiting on the apps for Tesla, which are coming soon since 2013. In Tesla speak, soon means 1 second before eventually. Sooner than people think means some time before the end of time (since there are people who think it's never going to happen).

 

[deonb]

Well, I always thought it would come by tomorrow. So guess I should be staying up late tonight instead.

 

[ShadowR55]

"Full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will, and I think what we've got under development is going to blow people's minds"

That's the direct quote from Elon on the conference call. I think most people believe the model 3 will have full autonomy. So "a hell of a lot faster" could mean the end of this year because said that there will be a big announcement by the end of the year.

 

[geoffreak]

Well, a certain little birdie claims that right around September 5 will be the day AP 2 shows up in cars and January/February for the software to start functioning (I would assume beyond the current capabilities). I would estimate an event would happen within a month or two after it starts appearing in cars. The current round of the referral program ends mid-October and promises an invite to the next Tesla event. Based on this information, it sounds to me like we'll be having a Tesla Halloween special event

 

[ShadowR55]

I don't know if we should believe one comment on Reddit, but maybe we should look at the cars coming off the assembly line around that time and see if there is indeed a change.

 

[green1]

Meanwhile we all just hope they don't remove any more functionality from the AP on existing cars than they already have...

 

[blc1017]

Well, a certain little birdie claims that right around September 5 will be the day AP 2 shows up in cars and January/February for the software to start functioning (I would assume beyond the current capabilities). I would estimate an event would happen within a month or two after it starts appearing in cars. The current round of the referral program ends mid-October and promises an invite to the next Tesla event. Based on this information, it sounds to me like we'll be having a Tesla Halloween special event

Ackkk! Shows up in cars, or starts being produced in cars? My car is scheduled for delivery sometime after September 5th. I hate this speculation.

 

[Lex]

Fascinated by wild speculation and ready to fan the flames Wonder how they accommodate new hardware with old software .. ?? Or does the new hardware need the new software, perhaps in a "simulation mode" or something until a certain date ? If so it might not behave like current AP at all, it might be obvious.

 

[Lex]

Ok maybe I should have read the birdie first. I don't believe this at all. AP 2.0 will almost certainly include rear facing add-ons IMHO that would not easily be a retrofit, unless the MS refresh added to the harness etc.

 

[ShadowR55]

Ok maybe I should have read the birdie first. I don't believe this at all. AP 2.0 will almost certainly include rear facing add-ons IMHO that would not easily be a retrofit, unless the MS refresh added to the harness etc.

Why do you need rear facing add ons? How fast are you expecting the car to go in reverse. The ultrasonic sensors can go out to 18ft, I think that's more than enough.

 

[Lex]

A fully autonomous car needs to know what is coming far beyond the ultrasonics. Think Autobahn for an extreme example.

 

[aesculus]

When EM said no new hw, I took that to mean they don't have to invent anything new. Not that they would not have to install something new. So personally doubt any of the current cars can do AP 2.0 without some sort of hw upgrade, if it's even possible or offered.

 

[liuping]

Why do you need rear facing add ons? How fast are you expecting the car to go in reverse. The ultrasonic sensors can go out to 18ft, I think that's more than enough.

You need to see fairly far behind you into adjacent lanes to know if it's safe to change lanes. That is one of the reasons you have to look yourself before using the turn signal to auto change lanes now.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm optimistic, and I love Tesla, but level 4 before the end of the year? Level 4 in the Model 3?

Not a chance. (I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am).

 

[Ciaopec]

lo que sera' sera'

 

[Lex]

I'm optimistic, and I love Tesla, but level 4 before the end of the year? Level 4 in the Model 3?

Not a chance. (I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am).

Exactly my thought, that yours is the correct "anyone" notion here, with "a hell of a lot faster" being around end of 2017, possibly.

 

[geoffreak]

Ackkk! Shows up in cars, or starts being produced in cars? My car is scheduled for delivery sometime after September 5th. I hate this speculation.

I took it to mean that's the day the cars start shipping with that hardware. In another reddit thread there was mention about a 2 week shutdown just prior to that for retooling, lending credence to that claim.

If these rumors are true, this would certainly point to your car possibly having AP 2. If your delivery is just shortly after September 5th, it might be the case that your car would actually finish manufacturing just before the shutdown and the remaining time could be from transport. I would say that if you hear of a production delay for your car, that might be a good sign.

 

[MP3Mike]

If these rumors are true, this would certainly point to your car possibly having AP 2. If your delivery is just shortly after September 5th, it might be the case that your car would actually finish manufacturing just before the shutdown and the remaining time could be from transport. I would say that if you hear of a production delay for your car, that might be a good sign.

If I recall correctly around a change in the past Tesla accelerated people's orders and delivered them early. Which upset some people as if it had been on the day it was originally scheduled they would have gotten AP1.0 for free. So if we see Tesla starting to push people to take delivery early we will know a change is imminent.

 

[dhanson865]

"Sooner than people think"? I wonder if this is the kind of deadline Elon accepts from his employees. ;-) What people? Some people think it's going to be a decade, some are holding off confirming their orders hoping it's coming next week. It's really a meaningless statement for the media. I'm still waiting on the apps for Tesla, which are coming soon since 2013. In Tesla speak, soon means 1 second before eventually. Sooner than people think means some time before the end of time (since there are people who think it's never going to happen).

It was on the earning conference call in response to an analyst throwing out years like 2018, 2020, 2022. So sooner than people think means sooner than any of the years mentioned and sooner than any competing auto manufacturer.