Full Self-Driving (Beta) toggle is now in wide release as production vehicle software including MCU1

FSD Beta release notes used to be titled "Early Access Program | FSD Beta" but now that's gone:

Additionally the strikes system for improper usage now results in a suspension of "approximately two weeks." The number of strikes allowed is five or three depending on availability of the interior camera.

People who haven't even opted in to FSD Beta with the request button are getting the same software version 2022.44.30.5 which was previously only available to those accepted to FSD Beta:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/100055i

This version also introduces a tip / message to turn on Full Self-Driving if the driver profile has not turned it on to help increase discoverability of the new feature now that it's available without early access terms.

Additionally, MCU1 vehicles are getting 2022.8.10.10 as FSD Beta 10.69.3.3 also as regular production vehicle software and not "Early Access Program." Most of the FSD Beta visualizations show up in the instrument cluster albeit at lower framerate than vehicles with MCU2+.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609266824545292289

 

[Mardak]

I set up a new profile from scratch and now I cannot use FSD

Were you previously using FSD Beta and maybe you/somebody got too many strikes? The strikes are shared across all profiles including new ones, and you should be able to check on the Autopilot screen. And maybe just to check, what's the vehicle software version?

Not specifically for your issue, some people have found success in doing an automatic system check by starting a service request from the app related to vehicle software and/or reinstalling the vehicle software using "service" mode from the vehicle.

 

[Mardak]

While the TeslaFi fleet shows a radically different story

I did look at TeslaFi numbers for installed, previous versions, pending, etc. What do you see there that might indicate it's not a wide release? Is it that not everybody is getting 2022.44.30.5? It does look like only those with FSD Capability purchased are getting the update, but that's not unusual for Tesla to have updates go to different vehicle configurations such as MCU1 having been on 2022.8.10.x for most of 2022 or software for vehicles with vs without FSD Computer.

Maybe soon there will be an even wider release not just to those who purchased FSD Capability, so it'll be interesting to see what features not-FSD users will get, but maybe that's part of single stack?

 

[Twiglett]

I did look at TeslaFi numbers for installed, previous versions, pending, etc. What do you see there that might indicate it's not a wide release? Is it that not everybody is getting 2022.44.30.5? It does look like only those with FSD Capability purchased are getting the update, but that's not unusual for Tesla to have updates go to different vehicle configurations such as MCU1 having been on 2022.8.10.x for most of 2022 or software for vehicles with vs without FSD Computer.

Maybe soon there will be an even wider release not just to those who purchased FSD Capability, so it'll be interesting to see what features not-FSD users will get, but maybe that's part of single stack?

That isn't what Teslascope claimed though. They were crowing about how right they were based on it going to everyone (based on two cars) - when it very obviously isn't. They also claimed this was FSD being merged into production, again based on two cars.

Teslafi shows slow but steady increase, but even now 85% of cars on this release came from a previous FSD release and still only 11% of all cars on on this release.
While they might point this out at confirming their theory, the facts doing back it up. There is nothing to say they could be correct, but not based current numbers.
For FSD to be really merged into prod, it would be in every release just like AP is now, but enabled by checking the box and paying some money.
V11 will make that unavoidable, but that is also currently on its own branch.
So for right now, its just FSD going out to more people on an up to date release

 

[Mardak]

For FSD to be really merged into prod, it would be in every release just like AP is now, but enabled by checking the box and paying some money.

Ah, I see. Yeah, with the non-FSD holiday update on 2022.44.25.1/.2/.3 and 2022.44.30/.1, FSD Beta 10.69.25.1 happens to be a newer version with 2022.44.30.5. This makes it so that currently someone purchasing or subscribing happens to have a newer version to update to. But maybe say later this month, if Tesla doesn't update all vehicles to a production version that supports "Full Self-Driving (Beta)" toggle, a recent FSD Capability buyer might need to wait just like others have had to do for FSD Beta software version to "catch up."

I suppose another way to describe this wide release is that Tesla has "only" removed the previous "request FSD Beta" button requirement with limited beta terms. But a truly wide release would allow someone to toggle FSD Beta "immediately" after subscribing without needing a software update.

 

[Mardak]

Looks like those from before Safety Score FSD Beta group still are considered "Early Access Program:"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609632446357852160

Turns out not everyone from before Safety Score is staying in Early Access Program (but might keep the video snapshot button??):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610065742539681792

I believe Brandon was one of the first to get a public FSD Beta build on October 22, 2020.

 

[fcastrillo86]

I was part of the old Safety Score batch (got beta in June 2022), and now my Early Access designation is gone from the release notes header (as of 2022.44.30.5). My video snapshot button disappeared around Thanksgiving i think.

 

[VanFriscia]

Turns out not everyone from before Safety Score is staying in Early Access Program (but might keep the video snapshot button??):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610065742539681792

I believe Brandon was one of the first to get a public FSD Beta build on October 22, 2020.

I'm on 10.69.25.1 (software 2022.44.30.5) and got in on the initial wave of safety score testers with FSDb 10.2 (I think it was 10.2?) My release notes don't say Early Access Program, nor do I have the report button anymore. Guess I'm no longer special!

 

[Mardak]

I'm on 10.69.25.1 (software 2022.44.30.5) and got in on the initial wave of safety score testers with FSDb 10.2

Yup, I still have the email from fsdbeta from October 11, 2021 for the initial batch; and the video snapshot button went away a few months ago and "Early Access Program" release notes gone with 10.69.25.1 too.

At least this report from Dirty Tesla has FSD Capability subscription time to downloading software time around 5 minutes. Long gone are the days of driving around the block to fix harsh braking with more gentle braking miles so that the metric showed 0.3 (but internally tracked as 0.26) so that the 99.51 Safety Score rounded up to 100…

 

[Mardak]

Interesting that multiple pre-Safety-Score testers like Chuck Cook and Dirty Tesla had to manually check the vehicle's Software settings screen for the wide release FSD Beta 10.69.25.1 update without a mobile app notification:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610077469314359298

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609718588503429120

Seems like Tesla didn't need/want this Early Access Program group to test the changes from 10.69.25 to 10.69.25.1 before it went out but also didn't proactively push the update to the car with an app notification. Maybe they were originally "held back" for potential FSD Beta 11 / single stack testing?

Overall looking at TeslaFi stats, it was more urgent for Tesla to push this wide release to vehicles that weren't already on FSD Beta software before the end of the year whereas people already on FSD Beta could get the update when manually checking on their own time. I suppose maybe it reflects that FSD Beta has been in a "good/safe enough" quality level to not need to rush vehicles to newer versions?

 

[Mardak]

Curious that the vehicle design pages still have:

Coming Soon​

• Autosteer on city streets

Design Your Model Y | Tesla

Design and order your Tesla Model Y, the car of the future.

www.tesla.com

Maybe they're just outdated as it seems like it's here, but if still not updated by January 25th, we'll probably find out at Tesla's full year 2022 update regarding wide release / availability of city streets for people buying the capability.

Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Fourth Quarter 2022 | Tesla Investor Relations

AUSTIN, Texas, January 2, 2023 – In the fourth quarter, we produced over 439,000 vehicles and delivered over 405,000 vehicles. In 2022, vehicle deliveries grew 40% YoY to 1.31 million while production grew 47% YoY to 1.37 million.

ir.tesla.com

 

[Mardak]

Curious that the vehicle design pages still have:

Coming Soon​

• Autosteer on city streets

Design Your Model Y | Tesla

Design and order your Tesla Model Y, the car of the future.

www.tesla.com

Tesla updating these pages for the lowered prices and clean vehicle tax credit information would have been a natural time to update this "Coming Soon" language, but looks like it's still there. I wonder if it's related to how the release notes mention "The FSD Beta feature can only be removed per this suspension method and it will be unavailable for approximately two weeks." but so far people who have struck-out have waited for more than 2 weeks and might need to wait for an updated FSD Beta 10.69.25.2 / 2022.44.30.10 to restore functionality.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla updating these pages for the lowered prices and clean vehicle tax credit information would have been a natural time to update this "Coming Soon" language, but looks like it's still there. I wonder if it's related to how the release notes mention "The FSD Beta feature can only be removed per this suspension method and it will be unavailable for approximately two weeks." but so far people who have struck-out have waited for more than 2 weeks and might need to wait for an updated FSD Beta 10.69.25.2 / 2022.44.30.10 to restore functionality.

Fairly sure its an oversight.

 

[Mardak]

Looks like Tesla does consider FSD Beta in wide release to 400k customers enough to recognize $324M revenue in 2022 Q4:

+ FSD revenue recognition of $324M in Automotive Sales​

​

This pertains to wide release of FSD Beta in the US and Canada during the period. Additionally, we expect to recognize nearly $1 billion of deferred revenue that remains for such customers over time as software updates are delivered.​

​

We have now released FSD Beta to nearly all customers in the US and Canada who bought FSD (approximately 400,000). This is an important milestone for our company. Every customer in the US and Canada can now access FSD Beta functionality upon purchase/subscription and start experiencing the evolution of Al-powered autonomy.​

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like Tesla does consider FSD Beta in wide release to 400k customers enough to recognize $324M revenue in 2022 Q4:

+ FSD revenue recognition of $324M in Automotive Sales​

​

This pertains to wide release of FSD Beta in the US and Canada during the period. Additionally, we expect to recognize nearly $1 billion of deferred revenue that remains for such customers over time as software updates are delivered.​

​

We have now released FSD Beta to nearly all customers in the US and Canada who bought FSD (approximately 400,000). This is an important milestone for our company. Every customer in the US and Canada can now access FSD Beta functionality upon purchase/subscription and start experiencing the evolution of Al-powered autonomy.​

So that means wide release to 25% of the FSDb-eligible fleet, is that right? In Q4.

That seems pretty much in line with expectations I guess. Maybe a little low, since that would mean ~100k?

But are they fully recognizing for each vehicle? No idea.

 

[EVNow]

So that means wide release to 25% of the FSDb-eligible fleet, is that right? In Q4.

That seems pretty much in line with expectations I guess. Maybe a little low, since that would mean ~100k?

But are they fully recognizing for each vehicle? No idea.

No. They mention 400k vehicles can now get FSDb.

Rest of $1B is for non-US FSD revenue + whatever they are yet to deliver. For eg. they wouldn't have recognized pre 3/2019 revenue is full because that talked about hands free door-to-door (which I estimate to be $400M, IIRC).

Its possible they will not recognize 100% even for FSDb vehicles since they will continue to get FSDb updates.

 

[Mardak]

So that means wide release to 25% of the FSDb-eligible fleet, is that right?

What are you counting as eligible fleet? Tesla is saying there's about 400k US/Canada purchaser/subscribers of FSD Capability presumably as of now / January. Whereas close to the end of last year (but before the wide release on December 31st), Tesla said they reached 285k. So potentially FSD Beta fleet has grown / can be grown by 40% since then?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608552555822325762

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

No. They mention 400k vehicles can now get FSDb.

Rest of $1B is for non-US FSD revenue + whatever they are yet to deliver. For eg. they wouldn't have recognized pre 3/2019 revenue is full because that talked about hands free door-to-door (which I estimate to be $400M, IIRC).


Its possible they will not recognize 100% even for FSDb vehicles since they will continue to get FSDb updates.

Right, 400k can get it but (not surprisingly) they did not say how many of them they recognized.

But yeah it is probably a combination of different factors.

Anyway seems like they did not recognize it all for the US in Q4.

The $1B is for “such customers” (so clearly US and Canada, as written ). Obviously they could have written it wrong - I assume clarification may come later.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

What are you counting as eligible fleet? Tesla is saying there's about 400k US/Canada purchaser/subscribers of FSD Capability presumably as of now / January. Whereas close to the end of last year (but before the wide release on December 31st), Tesla said they reached 285k. So potentially FSD Beta fleet has grown / can be grown by 40% since then?

I’m not counting anything. Just wondering what this all means. Seems like a lot of ambiguity, for sure.

Certainly seems possible they recognized 200k or so, partially. Or whatever.

 

[Mardak]

Anyway seems like they did not recognize it all for the US in Q4

At a super broad calculation, $324M recognized for 400k vehicles would be $810/vehicle, so indeed it seems like some aspects of partial recognition both in the numerator and denominator.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

At a super broad calculation, $324M recognized for 400k vehicles would be $810/vehicle, so indeed it seems like some aspects of partial recognition both in the numerator and denominator.

Yeah. I guess how I read this is ~25% of outstanding deferred US/Canada FSD revenue recognized by end of Q4. Is that correct?

Number of vehicles does not matter to first order, of course.