General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

The problem, of course, is that the ramp right now runs on the so-called "semi-automatic line" and will we replaced with the new full-automatic line from Germany.

My understanding is that the new Tesla Grohmann line will be installed in addition to the semi-automatic line. That is what will take them from 2500/week to 5000/week. Then they can completely shut down the 'failed" automatic lines and replace them with additional Tesla Grohmann on their path to 10000/week as well as being able to retire the semi-automatic line.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

My understanding is that the new Tesla Grohmann line will be installed in addition to the semi-automatic line. That is what will take them from 2500/week to 5000/week. Then they can completely shut down the 'failed" automatic lines and replace them with additional Tesla Grohmann on their path to 10000/week as well as being able to retire the semi-automatic line.

Yes, that is what Tesla states in their SEC filings. Comprehensive summary: Tesla clarifies comments about Model 3 production ramp – no need for new battery line for 2,500 units per week

Basically: semi-auto battery pack line that exists now can theoretically supply 2500 units/week. The fully automated line from Germany will add capacity of an additional 2500 units/week.

I believe that replicating the line from Germany several times is what Tesla ultimately intends for the Model 3 and Y.

 

[Ovulation]

My understanding is that the new Tesla Grohmann line will be installed in addition to the semi-automatic line. That is what will take them from 2500/week to 5000/week. Then they can completely shut down the 'failed" automatic lines and replace them with additional Tesla Grohmann on their path to 10000/week as well as being able to retire the semi-automatic line.

Yeah, you are probably right, the point is that we have to see the Grohmann line work before claiming victory. The next call will be interesting, they install the new line in March, right?

 

[Mike Smith]

Yeah, you are probably right, the point is that we have to see the Grohmann line work before claiming victory. The next call will be interesting, they install the new line in March, right?

The Grohmann line has already been tested. It would be pretty strange if it worked in Germany but doesn't in the US. The only risk is the boat sinking.

 

[dc_h]

The Grohmann line has already been tested. It would be pretty strange if it worked in Germany but doesn't in the US. The only risk is the boat sinking.

Uh oh, it only runs on 50 MHz and needs the funny plugs!

 

[SteveG3]

That's a good point that can reasonably explain the June timeframe for EU orders. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks. To make it there are two things we should see relatively soon (before Q2) and one thing we shouldn't see : Canadian reservation holders being invited, American S/X deliveries pushed to July but not a quick ramp up to 2500 and later 5000/week.

Yeah, in the next 4 to 6 weeks we'll see some strong signs if this is what Tesla is aiming for. In that same timeframe, we'll get S, X, and 3 production numbers- low range numbers making it more likely this is being attempted, high range, less likely.

 

[SteveG3]

Judging by the amount of activity on Reddit today, regarding the opening of configuration to non-owners, I am cautiously optimistic that the production ramp is proceeding. We should have a better picture by the end of March, and hopefully a replay of mid-late 2013 action on Tesla's share price if production goes well.

I'd agree that ramping up TM3 production to 5K, and in about a year to 10K together make for the biggest milestone for Tesla since the Model S. Like the Spring of 2013, I think it will be a blast to watch another wave of mind blown awareness of how good the product Tesla is delivering is reaching wider and wider circles of the public (including, added spikes to come with the release of dual motor versions, and eventually the Performance version).

It's going to be plenty fun as a Tesla enthusiast, sure, probably the second really big scale Tesla moment. All that said, as to the stock price movement, I think anyone expecting a repeat of the scale of 2013's move will be quite disappointed. The stock might do very very well, and move about 1/10 of what it did over several months in 2013 (from about $40-45, to a 4X price of $180+). By 1/10 the move, I mean percentage wise, not absolute dollars, so something like a 30-40% increase, maybe. Sure, the market could get carried away, but, I'd be surprised to see even a doubling in the stock price from where we are now. This isn't about dreary performance this year, its about how massive the move was 5 years ago (and how low aggregate market expectations for Tesla's future was before that move).

 

[SteveG3]

Toyota, Genesis among Consumer Reports' top auto picks

DETROIT (AP) —

The Chevrolet Bolt electric car is best small green car, a new category.


The rankings are based on driving tests as well as reliability and satisfaction scores from Consumer Reports' subscribers. Top picks also must have standard automatic emergency braking and forward collision warning systems.

Consumer Reports' rankings are closely watched by the industry since many buyers make decisions based on its advice.

Here are some more details of the 2018 rankings:

7/8— Hyundai Motor Co.'s luxury Genesis brand was the top performer in Consumer Reports' brand rankings, which are sorted by the number of models per brand that Consumer Reports recommends. But the magazine noted that it tested only two vehicles from the relatively new Genesis brand. Audi, BMW, Lexus and Porsche rounded out the top five brands. Electric car brand Tesla was eighth, with two of its four models recommended. Toyota was tenth, with 15 of its 20 models recommended.

— Consumer Reports didn't recommend any vehicles from these 11 brands, either because of low road test scores, poor crash test performance or questionable reliability: Fiat, Jeep, Land Rover, Alfa Romeo, Mitsubishi, Jaguar, GMC, Dodge, Mini, Cadillac and Volvo.

Just for context, the Model 3 was not eligible this year (hasn't gone through CR's testing, or had material amounts of data collected from owners on reliability... both requirements for consideration).

 

[Mich]

Uh oh, it only runs on 50 MHz and needs the funny plugs!

They could use some EU Powerwalls as a workaround.

 

[hobbes]

One more data point from reddit: 1310 +-5 (counted myself and matches someone from the reddit post) Teslas at the San Francisco Pier 80 export hub. Does anyone know where they´d ship from there? Are there different harbours for different continents?

 

[Etna]

Does anyone know where they´d ship from there?

Can be anywhere in the world. The car carrier G Poseidon is currently moored at pier 80. Once it will be on the move, MarineTraffic will display its destination.

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

 

[Causalien]

The Grohmann line has already been tested. It would be pretty strange if it worked in Germany but doesn't in the US. The only risk is the boat sinking.

I've seen it happen before. A working German line stopped working once brought to asia.

I am guessing humidity or static electricity. Mystery never solved.

 

[hobbes]

One more data point from reddit: 1310 +-5 (counted myself and matches someone from the reddit post) Teslas at the San Francisco Pier 80 export hub. Does anyone know where they´d ship from there? Are there different harbours for different continents?

While searching for a webcam, I found this SF Chronicle article form 2016: Auto importer to help Pier 80 roar back to life

The Port of San Francisco has reached a deal with Pasha Automotive Services, which will use the facility to import as many as 150,000 automobiles a year, mostly from factories in Mexico, but also from Asia and Europe. It could also serve as an export hub for Tesla Motors, which manufactures its high-end electric cars in Fremont.

Looks like that has happened. According to the article, the pier had not been used for shipping before that deal.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Don't like the hyperbullishness of Hyperchange very much, but this is interesting:

Here's the google spreadsheet with all the Tesla social media data:
Tesla / Automaker Social

 

[SunCatcher]

Don't like the hyperbullishness of Hyperchange very much, but this is interesting:

Here's the google spreadsheet with all the Tesla social media data:
Tesla / Automaker Social

I watch a lot of his videos. This is one of the best. He really hits the nail on the head.

 

[Reciprocity]

Don't like the hyperbullishness of Hyperchange very much, but this is interesting:

Here's the google spreadsheet with all the Tesla social media data:
Tesla / Automaker Social

Whats interesting about this to me, as a digital marketer with 20 years of experience. I dont see Tesla even trying to promote the brand online. We know they do not do a lot of traditional offline marketing, but you would assume based on how successful they have been with the Social channel that they would be doing more online and I have not seen it. They dont even do a lot of emailing to existing customers. I think I get an email that is promoting something every 6 months. I mean, they could have promoted the referral program and free supercharging a lot more then they did. I think I got one email on that. Elon tweets a lot but Tesla really does not. That makes this even more amazing because it means that most of this is organic and thus demand driven. I cannot tell you how many clients would come to me an expect SEO or SEM to generate traffic for their products and brands when no one even knows what they make or that they even exist. They couldnt understand that the demand has to be there for online marketing to work. People need to be searching for your products and services, you cannot invent demand out of thin air, demand has to be there, then you can capture it. This is a good example of word of mouth and demand driving real activity.

It takes me think of this video which is similar to the BTFD video:

Its hard to determine the value here, but i can tell you that keywords like Insurance and Mortgage are worth $20-$50 a click. This is the extreme end of expensive keywords. I would estimate that searches for Tesla and Model 3, Model S and Model X are fairly cheap for Tesla and very expensive for anyone that is not Tesla. This is because Google is smart about penalizing those with low engagement rates or low click rates compared to others advertising for the same keywords. So demand created by Tesla is all but owned by Tesla. They can even make it expensive for competitors buying searches for generic terms like "Electric Car". One of these days I need to do an analysis like I would do for a client and see just how much traffic is out there and who is going after it. My guess is that I would not find a single Tesla ad, but I would find Tesla very highly ranked in the search results.

As we have went over this before, most of the major auto manufacturers are spending billions on advertising. Mercedes as the super dome turned into a giant Mercedes symbol for tens of millions of dollars. At most, Tesla does these small events around the country and the bigger events at Fremont to announce products and that is about it. It really is amazing and not just something that goes away. How many people call tissues Kleenex? How many use the term Googling to talk about searching for something. Building a brand takes a crap load of money and time. Tesla has done it a decade with next to nothing spent and the brand itself is probably one of the most valuable today. I would guess that its easily in the top 20-50 and in another decade it will be right there at the top.

This says Tesla is 380th which is a joke because it is behind brands you have never heard of, but what is interesting is that Mercedes brand is worth $43B:

Best Global Brands | Brand Profiles & Valuations of the World’s Top Brands

If you recall from the video that Mercedes was really the only brand that was competitive with Tesla in his analysis of social networks. I am not saying that Tesla's brand is worth 43B, but that it is building something that has a great deal of value and they are doing it without investing billions.

 

[mongo]

Whats interesting about this to me, as a digital marketer with 20 years of experience. I dont see Tesla even trying to promote the brand online. We know they do not do a lot of traditional offline marketing, but you would assume based on how successful they have been with the Social channel that they would be doing more online and I have not seen it. They dont even do a lot of emailing to existing customers. I think I get an email that is promoting something every 6 months. I mean, they could have promoted the referral program and free supercharging a lot more then they did. I think I got one email on that. Elon tweets a lot but Tesla really does not. That makes this even more amazing because it means that most of this is organic and thus demand driven. I cannot tell you how many clients would come to me an expect SEO or SEM to generate traffic for their products and brands when no one even knows what they make or that they even exist. They couldnt understand that the demand has to be there for online marketing to work. People need to be searching for your products and services, you cannot invent demand out of thin air, demand has to be there, then you can capture it. This is a good example of word of mouth and demand driving real activity.

It takes me think of this video which is similar to the BTFD video:

Its hard to determine the value here, but i can tell you that keywords like Insurance and Mortgage are worth $20-$50 a click. This is the extreme end of expensive keywords. I would estimate that searches for Tesla and Model 3, Model S and Model X are fairly cheap for Tesla and very expensive for anyone that is not Tesla. This is because Google is smart about penalizing those with low engagement rates or low click rates compared to others advertising for the same keywords. So demand created by Tesla is all but owned by Tesla. They can even make it expensive for competitors buying searches for generic terms like "Electric Car". One of these days I need to do an analysis like I would do for a client and see just how much traffic is out there and who is going after it. My guess is that I would not find a single Tesla ad, but I would find Tesla very highly ranked in the search results.

As we have went over this before, most of the major auto manufacturers are spending billions on advertising. Mercedes as the super dome turned into a giant Mercedes symbol for tens of millions of dollars. At most, Tesla does these small events around the country and the bigger events at Fremont to announce products and that is about it. It really is amazing and not just something that goes away. How many people call tissues Kleenex? How many use the term Googling to talk about searching for something. Building a brand takes a crap load of money and time. Tesla has done it a decade with next to nothing spent and the brand itself is probably one of the most valuable today. I would guess that its easily in the top 20-50 and in another decade it will be right there at the top.

This says Tesla is 380th which is a joke because it is behind brands you have never heard of, but what is interesting is that Mercedes brand is worth $43B:

Best Global Brands | Brand Profiles & Valuations of the World’s Top Brands

If you recall from the video that Mercedes was really the only brand that was competitive with Tesla in his analysis of social networks. I am not saying that Tesla's brand is worth 43B, but that it is building something that has a great deal of value and they are doing it without investing billions.

Personally, I love Tesla's approach. I signed up on-line for an X test drive, they called, scheduled it, got a follow up e-mail with OA contact (out of state since MI is lame), took the drive, got a couple follow up e-mails. Previously we dropped in at Cleveland as we were passing through, and they squeezed us into an S test drive and then left us alone to check of the showrooms cars. It was great,

Compared to wife checked out 2 dealerships for a non-Tesla. Now she is getting voicemails, texts, and maybe e-mails from dealers she never even went to.

 

[Curt Renz]

The latest Tesla news from Electrek:

Tesla made over $2 billion in China last year, doubled sales and expanded retail/charging presence

Tesla starts beta-testing new Autopilot update with new feature and more advanced neural net

Tesla launches a new ‘Workplace Charging’ program to supply free charging stations to businesses

 

[Chris Fox]

Personally, I love Tesla's approach. I signed up on-line for an X test drive, they called, scheduled it, got a follow up e-mail with OA contact (out of state since MI is lame), took the drive, got a couple follow up e-mails. Previously we dropped in at Cleveland as we were passing through, and they squeezed us into an S test drive and then left us alone to check of the showrooms cars. It was great,

Compared to wife checked out 2 dealerships for a non-Tesla. Now she is getting voicemails, texts, and maybe e-mails from dealers she never even went to.

I had a similar experience. Took it for a test drive then the saleswoman told me to have a good weekend and to call her if I had any other questions. No pressure. Was amazing. Will only ever buy Tesla

 

[Reciprocity]

I had a similar experience. Took it for a test drive then the saleswoman told me to have a good weekend and to call her if I had any other questions. No pressure. Was amazing. Will only ever buy Tesla

Well those are not purely marketing activities. Those are more customer relations and sales. Marketing would be the communication that got you to call to begin with. They don't pressure you because the products sell themselves and Tesla can't seem to make more then what they sell today.