General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[schonelucht]

Yeah, in the next 4 to 6 weeks we'll see some strong signs if this is what Tesla is aiming for. In that same timeframe, we'll get S, X, and 3 production numbers- low range numbers making it more likely this is being attempted, high range, less likely.

At this point still a relatively weak sign but the relative large size of non-owners invites going to US reservation holders exclusively points to Tesla not engaging in the Canada gambit.

 

[SteveG3]

At this point still a relatively weak sign but the relative large size of non-owners invites going to US reservation holders exclusively points to Tesla not engaging in the Canada gambit.

I knew about some non-owners being invited to configure yesterday, but, I hadn't seen anything on how large a number of people that was... would be helpful to see any info on this.

 

[RobStark]

Where Do Tesla Owners Pay The Most At The Supercharger? [Infographic]

 

[ruralectric]

I knew about some non-owners being invited to configure yesterday, but, I hadn't seen anything on how large a number of people that was... would be helpful to see any info on this.

I've got no info on production rate and number of non-owner config invites. But this may be helpful: I'm a non-owner Washington state resident who reserved in the very first seconds of online reservation access on the night of the reveal. With the assumption that WA is one of the first markets to get deliveries after CA, and OR, I'm assuming that I'll be near the front of the line once all of the CA, OR and WA non-owner-line-standers get their invites. Anyone want to make a guess on how many/how long that might be? Some 10's of thousands ahead of me I think. 40,000 - 50,000 maybe?

Tesla has me currently at Apr-Jun, pushed back from Jan-Mar after the earnings call. A bit tricky to estimate, But at 2,500/wk that's ~10,000/month. Seems a bit of a stretch that I'd get an invite before July. I'll let you know.

Another > 2% day. Sweet.

 

[hobbes]

I've got no info on production rate and number of non-owner config invites. But this may be helpful: I'm a non-owner Washington state resident who reserved in the very first seconds of online reservation access on the night of the reveal. With the assumption that WA is one of the first markets to get deliveries after CA, and OR, I'm assuming that I'll be near the front of the line once all of the CA, OR and WA non-owner-line-standers get their invites. Anyone want to make a guess on how many/how long that might be? Some 10's of thousands ahead of me I think. 40,000 - 50,000 maybe?

Tesla has me currently at Apr-Jun, pushed back from Jan-Mar after the earnings call. A bit tricky to estimate, But at 2,500/wk that's ~10,000/month. Seems a bit of a stretch that I'd get an invite before July. I'll let you know.

Another > 2% day. Sweet.

@Troy has made an estimating tool which seems to work quite well, see this thread: Model 3 delivery estimator

Also, people have reported being able to configure after logging in *before* even getting an Email. I think I´d be constantly polling my Tesla . Good luck on getting your 3 soon!

 

[RobStark]

Tesla, GM buyers to lose $7,500 tax credit within a year

The Tesla filing also disclosed that the company added 7,500 employees last year, a 25% increase in staffing levels that brought its total employment to 37,500

 

[hobbes]

Don't like the hyperbullishness of Hyperchange very much, but this is interesting:

Here's the google spreadsheet with all the Tesla social media data:
Tesla / Automaker Social

Just found this recent interview of the hyperchange founder, like him better there than in his own podcast:

 

[DurandalAI]

Tesla, GM buyers to lose $7,500 tax credit within a year

The Tesla filing also disclosed that the company added 7,500 employees last year, a 25% increase in staffing levels that brought its total employment to 37,500

Bolt/Volt sales are going to drop preciptously when this happens. The value of the Bolt isn’t very good when compared to a Leaf with the tax credit or a Model 3 which is just inherently better. Even worse for GM on the Bolt if the 2019 Leaf with the 55-60kWh pack is the same MSRP.

 

[dhrivnak]

One more data point from reddit: 1310 +-5 (counted myself and matches someone from the reddit post) Teslas at the San Francisco Pier 80 export hub. Does anyone know where they´d ship from there? Are there different harbours for different continents?

My word Tesla is building inventory as they can’t find buyers. . So much inventory they have to hide them off shore.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'd agree that ramping up TM3 production to 5K, and in about a year to 10K together make for the biggest milestone for Tesla since the Model S. Like the Spring of 2013, I think it will be a blast to watch another wave of mind blown awareness of how good the product Tesla is delivering is reaching wider and wider circles of the public (including, added spikes to come with the release of dual motor versions, and eventually the Performance version).

It's going to be plenty fun as a Tesla enthusiast, sure, probably the second really big scale Tesla moment. All that said, as to the stock price movement, I think anyone expecting a repeat of the scale of 2013's move will be quite disappointed. The stock might do very very well, and move about 1/10 of what it did over several months in 2013 (from about $40-45, to a 4X price of $180+). By 1/10 the move, I mean percentage wise, not absolute dollars, so something like a 30-40% increase, maybe. Sure, the market could get carried away, but, I'd be surprised to see even a doubling in the stock price from where we are now. This isn't about dreary performance this year, its about how massive the move was 5 years ago (and how low aggregate market expectations for Tesla's future was before that move).

I actually agree with this.

My short term Price Target is $365/share, which is based upon a prediction that Tesla can demonstrate the ability to reach 500k vehicles/year delivered (400k Model 3, 100k Model S/X) and 2 Billion in Energy products in the 2019 timeframe. If it becomes clear by the June/July timeframe that Tesla is well on its way to doing this, I start looking ahead to 1M cars by the 2021 timeframe, with a price target of $670/share. In the interim, I believe TSLA could trade between $400-500/share if the company continues to make progress.

My other expectations are continued high volatility, drama with Model Y, and frenzied media/twitter/troll attacks. Among automobile enthusiasts generally, an increasing number are getting on board with EVs, but a substantial percentage of ICE holdouts are becoming even more angry and bitterly resentful. I read this on non-Tesla car message boards every day.

 

[SteveG3]

I actually agree with this.

My short term Price Target is $365/share, which is based upon a prediction that Tesla can demonstrate the ability to reach 500k vehicles/year delivered (400k Model 3, 100k Model S/X) and 2 Billion in Energy products in the 2019 timeframe. If it becomes clear by the June/July timeframe that Tesla is well on its way to doing this, I start looking ahead to 1M cars by the 2021 timeframe, with a price target of $670/share. In the interim, I believe TSLA could trade between $400-500/share if the company continues to make progress.

My other expectations are continued high volatility, drama with Model Y, and frenzied media/twitter/troll attacks. Among automobile enthusiasts generally, an increasing number are getting on board with EVs, but a substantial percentage of ICE holdouts are becoming even more angry and bitterly resentful. I read this on non-Tesla car message boards every day.

We have quite similar projections AC.

 

[ruralectric]

@Troy has made an estimating tool which seems to work quite well, see this thread: Model 3 delivery estimator

Also, people have reported being able to configure after logging in *before* even getting an Email. I think I´d be constantly polling my Tesla . Good luck on getting your 3 soon!

Thanks Hobbes. Well, I tried the estimator and it gave me a June 1 delivery date. I noticed though that it only allowed me to enter a "west coast" locale, so it doesn't appear to differentiate between CA and northwest states. But then I'm not positive that Tesla makes the distinction at this stage of the ramp. We shall see.

But really though, I'm happy to wait and, barring any downturn in the macros, I think there's going to continue to be a correlation between the production rate (increasing at some rate fast or slow, but not much slowing down). This is going to be a huge year of growth for Tesla and I'm confident that the share price will be higher than it is now and when it becomes necessary to sell the shares needed to buy the car it will be a little less painful.

Not advice, my opinion is qualitative only, not quantitative. "Warm fuzzies". I've said too much already.

 

[RobStark]

Bolt/Volt sales are going to drop preciptously when this happens. The value of the Bolt isn’t very good when compared to a Leaf with the tax credit or a Model 3 which is just inherently better. Even worse for GM on the Bolt if the 2019 Leaf with the 55-60kWh pack is the same MSRP.

Nissan is about 3 months behind GM. Projecting from 2nd half of 2017 is false because that is the transition from LEAF 1.5 to LEAF 2.0.

IMO

40% Chance Fed Credit is altered to fixed time limit for all OEMs or fixed total number of credits for all OEMs. As currently constructed the incentives will benefit primarily foreign based companies and foreign made cars in 2019. Politicians hate this.

30% Chance Fed Credit is eliminated for 2019.

30% Chance everything stays the same.

 

[Dennisj00]

The 2018 Leaf with the $7500 credit is no comparison to the model 3 with or without the credit.

Other than there’s no wait.

 

[immunogold]

This CNN article is referring to the Google and GM/Cruise-type bespoke vehicles with Lidar, etc, but it’s use of the term “fully autonomous vehicles” might suggest to the uninitiated that buying a vehicle with “autonomous” capabilities (e.g. Tesla) would be one giant maintenance headache. I doubt that this one CNN article will have much effect in this regard. But now in addition to answering, “But where would I charge my car?”, we may have to address, “But how will I clean my car??” /s

For self-driving cars, car washes are a nightmare
Quote: “The most cutting-edge cars on the planet require an old-fashioned handwashing. Car washes have been automated for decades, but companies developing fully autonomous vehicles must rely on a human touch to keep their cars and trucks in working condition.
A self-driving vehicle's exterior needs to be cleaned even more frequently than a typical car because the sensors must remain free of obstructions. Dirt, dead bugs, bird droppings or water spots can impact the vehicle's ability to drive safely...”

"For self-driving technology to scale, we can't have engineers paid $150,000 a year, running around the vehicles and wiping them down," Lansinger said. "It's going to be quite awhile before we get away from the manual care."

 

[Waiting4M3]

This CNN article is referring to the Google and GM/Cruise-type bespoke vehicles with Lidar, etc, but it’s use of the term “fully autonomous vehicles” might suggest to the uninitiated that buying a vehicle with “autonomous” capabilities (e.g. Tesla) would be one giant maintenance headache. I doubt that this one CNN article will have much effect in this regard. But now in addition to answering, “But where would I charge my car?”, we may have to address, “But how will I clean my car??” /s

For self-driving cars, car washes are a nightmare
Quote: “The most cutting-edge cars on the planet require an old-fashioned handwashing. Car washes have been automated for decades, but companies developing fully autonomous vehicles must rely on a human touch to keep their cars and trucks in working condition.
A self-driving vehicle's exterior needs to be cleaned even more frequently than a typical car because the sensors must remain free of obstructions. Dirt, dead bugs, bird droppings or water spots can impact the vehicle's ability to drive safely...”

"For self-driving technology to scale, we can't have engineers paid $150,000 a year, running around the vehicles and wiping them down," Lansinger said. "It's going to be quite awhile before we get away from the manual care."

I think Tesla should get into real-estate business when the days of full autonomy arrives:

buy cheaper land outside of dense city center, build automated garages that includes charging and maybe even car wash services accommodating Tesla cars, and lease it out to Tesla owners who don't own a garage to store their cars when not in use.

or even one step beyond, use the automated garage to house fleet of Tesla Network cars that Tesla owns and operates. Private owners can opt in and store their cars in those garage also, for a monthly fee, or free if they opt into Tesla Network.

 

[22522]

As I process, this is for employee incentive plans:

Tesla - Registration Statement

Is that right? Not an expert here.

 

[JRP3]

I think Tesla should get into real-estate business when the days of full autonomy arrives:

buy cheaper land outside of dense city center, build automated garages that includes charging and maybe even car wash services accommodating Tesla cars, and lease it out to Tesla owners who don't own a garage to store their cars when not in use.

or even one step beyond, use the automated garage to house fleet of Tesla Network cars that Tesla owns and operates. Private owners can opt in and store their cars in those garage also, for a monthly fee, or free if they opt into Tesla Network.

Sounds like a huge investment in a low margin business.

 

[Etna]

Does anyone know where they´d ship from there?

G Poseidon about ready to depart and MarineTraffic now reporting destination for these 1300+ Tesla cars is Shanghai.

 

[30seconds]

I woo

G Poseidon about ready to depart and MarineTraffic now reporting destination for these 1300+ Tesla cars is Shanghai.

But according to the bears China has been a HUGE bust for Tesla