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Reciprocity
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I think we agree that in general this is not a great deal on the face value. We are talking Cells again and not packs, so this is only half the battle. The cell price puts this at a 2017 price for Tesla on a very worst case scenario given that they publicly stated costs of something like $192/KWh at the pack level years ago. This would more inline with $150 at most at the cell level. This is before the 30-35% improvement in energy density and cost reductions from 2170 which would be closer to $105 at the cell level and that would be a 2017 cost. What do we think Tesla will be paying at he cell level in 2025 (your estimate of $80 is not out of line at all). Even if we dont get to $80, at just 2% improvement every year, they will be well bellow the $100/KWh magic number required to make EVs competitive in every way with ICEv. Imagine a situation where Daimler and VW are putting out vehicles with $123/KWh cells and Tesla is over-sizing its batteries by 20% which dynamically unlocks based on need. Meaning, if its cold outside or you are going up hill, the battery dynamically allows you to charge more or allows you to consume a massive reserve that was already charged overnight before the trip. This would have a couple of benefits. One would be that you are more sure what your range will be in almost any situation. The other would be battery degradation would be 0 for 10 years because the pack would dynamically unlock the 5-10% degradation as its occurring. When you do stop to charge, you are never charging from 0-100 and instead you are more realistically charging from 20-80 in like 15 minutes without having to do anything crazy with charge rates or hyper chargers or special cooling. You can do that with 1.5c that we see today with the 2170 cells in the Model 3. At the pack level, the price would be similar to what the competition is paying, but their packs would degrade faster and would require special charging to get close to the 15 minutes while risking massive degradation over time. Remember that batteries can do one thing great but at the sacrifice of the other two. So it can be very energy dense, but needs to charge slow and might degrade faster if you charge it to fast. Or it can charge really fast or be less dense, which only allows a certain sized battery pack. There is no such thing as a super energy dense, hyper fast charging, never degrading battery. Something always has to give.
The other bad thing about this deal. And this may or may not be the case. If you are buying batteries at a set price, the manufacturer is going to cut costs everywhere they can to make more profit from the contract. This means the cells will be less and less quality as suppliers squeeze every penny from each cell. The profit incentive is huge and works against the company that signed the purchase pact. Where as Tesla will take advantage of every improvement as it happens and can target the types of features in the cells that it wants. The deal might protect VW from this, but maybe not or maybe there is enough gray area
It's unclear. The journalist asked for the price for 'packed cells' and if he would confirm below 100EUR/kWh. And so he did but without clearly elaborating on it being cells or packs.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Well battery suppliers cannot make the pack their cars. Its something very specific to each vehicle. Maybe they are outsourcing that as well, but I doubt it.
In Thailand today,
"Porsche catches fire while charging
The high-end hybrid-electric car and the entire sitting room equipped with a home-theatre system were destroyed. Police found the car's charging cable plugged into an electrical outlet in the sitting room.
Porsche catches fire while charging
"Porsche catches fire while charging
The high-end hybrid-electric car and the entire sitting room equipped with a home-theatre system were destroyed. Police found the car's charging cable plugged into an electrical outlet in the sitting room.
Porsche catches fire while charging
This doesn't seem like a very charitable interpretation to me. Regardless of how it's priced, one would expect Panasonic is also trying to cut costs everywhere they can in their production for Tesla, but often this is seen as a good thing and evidence of the progress of manufacturing technology, not that their batteries are getting lower and lower quality.
Also, regarding $/kwh numbers, I wonder if we're going to reach a point where it doesn't really matter and that it might be closer than we realize.
I Imagine most manufacturers battery costs are soon going to enable them to make EVs that can go say, 350 miles on a charge. At that point, you're at ICE car parity basically, and incremental price improvements are great, but Tesla's price advantage is no longer the dividing line it once was (for normal passenger cars at least)
Because there are no close analogies to FSD that can be used as a baseline I think predicting timing for the FSD rollout is a dicey business -- much harder than predicting the timing of the Model 3 production ramp for example.
But the new update seems to put in place a solid backbone and also validates the concept that Tesla can be working on neural nets that are very good on release. It makes it easier for me to picture FSD software that is very solid when initially activated in production cars, whether in 3 to 6 months or later. I am assuming later but would be very happy to be wrong.
Given the recent parking lot pictures that indicate new production, coupled with
Retoooling improvements , Grohmann installation, improved autopilot, and negation of fake
Remanufacturing, the stock should turn around as the risk reward picture improves
Retoooling improvements , Grohmann installation, improved autopilot, and negation of fake
Remanufacturing, the stock should turn around as the risk reward picture improves
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Ford too. This is a letter to the Congress from a Ford owner of his experience on a 2013 plug-in C-Max. Compare the response of Ford dealership vs what Tesla would have done in this case, it's night and day.
Model 3 vid from Sindelfingen Germany. Mercedes plant is located in Sindelfingen.
K_Dizzle
Member
Interesting comments about Germany on the Reddit thread
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so, why do you post then?
you dont take every article on newspapers seriously, or do you?
Im posting in this forum because this is a serious forum
Im posting in this forum because this is a serious forum
All EV's need to get baptized by EV battery fires. I think right now only Tesla has passed that phase.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Poor quality of EV's produced by "competition" is harmful to Tesla's mission.
sundaymorning
Active Member
The Porsche fire reminds me of Fisker-spontaneous and dangerous! Porsche may need to slow down their Mission E timeline and identify the root cause before continuing. If this occurs again, it could really damage their reputation and validate Tesla’s tech. This is not a good start for Porsche as they haven’t even dip their toes into the EV game yet.
BTW Porsche gets almost zero negative media attention on this.
If avocados are reported to have listeria, all Mexican-ish restaurants can suffer.
sundaymorning
Active Member
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