General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Starno]

Good example of the Autopilot improvements. Finally!

Starts at 6:10ish in the video.

Just saw this video as well, very good progress have been made.

 

[AlMc]

The FUD will not go away until Tesla reaches 5K/week production rate.There will be noise until then.

So I will give another 6 months before the noise disappears.

That, and being cash flow positive.

 

[JRP3]

Did anyone here vote no to Elon’s comp package?

You mean besides yourself?

 

[CatB]

Wrt the compensation vote, am I the only one who found the reminder calls annoying? I got at least 3, plus email. And trust me, I only wish I were a significant shareholder. Either they *are* concerned about the actual result, or they want to say what percentage of "voters" gave EM the vote of confidence on top of the actual volume win.
Seems like a waste of time and effort, why so desperate? VA may be onto something...

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Feels a lot like Oct/Nov of 2016.

I am much more confident in Model 3’s overall quality than I was with Model X, even after the end of Model X “production hell”.

But make no mistake, every Model 3 quality issue and every gripe from reservation holders reported here at TMC is being paraded on Reddit. The scrutiny is much more intense, though I cannot say if this has any effect at the retail investor level.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You mean besides yourself?

I never said how I would vote I don’t think.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I am much more confident in Model 3’s overall quality than I was with Model X, even after the end of Model X “production hell”.

But make no mistake, every Model 3 quality issue and every gripe from reservation holders reported here at TMC is being paraded on Reddit. The scrutiny is much more intense, though I cannot say if this has any effect at the retail investor level.

I think the lines are drawn so sharply at this point that there isn’t much movement between bull and bear camps at the retail level. Bears are surely louder but bulls know what’s going on.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Wrt the compensation vote, am I the only one who found the reminder calls annoying? I got at least 3, plus email. And trust me, I only wish I were a significant shareholder. Either they *are* concerned about the actual result, or they want to say what percentage of "voters" gave EM the vote of confidence on top of the actual volume win.
Seems like a waste of time and effort, why so desperate? VA may be onto something...

That’s in part what made me think of it too.. I don’t remember getting an e-mail reminder for SolarCity vote.

 

[JRP3]

I never said how I would vote I don’t think.

You were quite clear about your opinion of the compensation package. So unless you changed your mind, and didn't mention it, you should have voted against it.

 

[Todd Burch]

Just my impression so take with an enormous grain of salt, but I feel like we're at about 1,500 cars/wk right now and climbing.

 

[renim]

According to Seeking Alpha's Anton Wahlman VW CEO confirms in a press conference related to Geneva show that VW has written contracts for €20B battery cell buy at €100 ($123) per kWh.

Lower Cost Than Tesla? Volkswagen's New Battery Cell Costs Under 100 Euro Per KWh - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Posters on other sites claiming to be German speakers say this deal starts in 2025.

I can't find confirmation for €100 ($123) per kWh or 2025 starting date.

If so, doesn't this prove Tesla is way ahead? Tesla should be under $100 by 2020 at the latest and under $80 in 2025.

I would expect that the german requirement for queer DIN packaging for Li ion cells puts them at a price disadvatage to everyone else for the next dacade.
(Tesla, Nissan, Renault, the Chinese, even GM should have a cost advantage over VW etc)

 

[sundaymorning]

Major improvements and rave reviews are being reported for the latest AP2 firmware update:

Version 2018.10.4
Software Update 2018.10.4

Look at those reviews on autopilot update! People are loving it, Tesla absolutely nailed it! Now visualize the mission E without autopilot competing against Tesla next year.

 

[D-egg-O]

The FUD will not go away until Tesla reaches 5K/week production rate.There will be noise until then.

So I will give another 6 months before the noise disappears.

6 months...definitely (I couldn’t resist)

 

[AZRI11]

Next week 2k week after 2.5k will not reach 3k per week until may. QC issues will be the major factor. unlike s/x m3 must be better than industry avg quality wise. Ramp will stall unless QC improves. Can't keep playing whack-a-mole not sustainable. That's why elon is in charge of service this is as important as autonomy.

 

[EinSV]

Look at those reviews on autopilot update! People are loving it, Tesla absolutely nailed it! <snip>.

Yeah, they are pretty awesome! The handling on curvy, hilly two-lane highways and relatively complex situations (merges, intersections, etc.) makes it easy, at least for me, to visualize the transition to Full Self-Driving. This seems to be a very solid backbone to build on.

Also, the dramatic overnight improvement that resulted from onboarding the new neural nets (thank you Mr. Karpathy) is really impressive. Reminiscent of when Tesla turned on AP1 for the first time.

Eager to see what's to come when they flip the switch on FSD.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The FUD will not go away until Tesla reaches 5K/week production rate.There will be noise until then.

So I will give another 6 months before the noise disappears.

Then we'll be into the next round of FUD. My guess is that it will be around the inevitable model Y or Semi delays. Tesla will only have 3 vehicles in it's line-up. Surely it's at death's door .

 

[mutle]

In contrast, Public, non-profit news media like PBS and BBC can, the vast majority of the time, be trusted to give a clear picture of events worldwide. They aren't beholden to advertisers for clicks and views. They also aren't basically controlled by people like Murdoch and Bezos, who have their own agendas.

Unfortunately that is not true, these are just two cases (one involving a Koch brother):

The Wolf of Sesame Street: Revealing the secret corruption inside PBS's news division
The Corporate Dictatorship of PBS and NPR

Basically as long as these non-profits are not adequately funded they will rely more and more on private funding, which always comes with ulterior motives.

 

[avoigt]

Wrt the compensation vote, am I the only one who found the reminder calls annoying? I got at least 3, plus email. And trust me, I only wish I were a significant shareholder. Either they *are* concerned about the actual result, or they want to say what percentage of "voters" gave EM the vote of confidence on top of the actual volume win.
Seems like a waste of time and effort, why so desperate? VA may be onto something...

There are shareholders like myself where the Bank/Brooker just declined the vote and Innisfree is trying to help although they did not do a lot yet. IOW be happy that you can vote either online or even at the phone as some people here feel like their rights are cut short....

This should go through easily given the positive outlook for the SP.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Yeah, they are pretty awesome! The handling on curvy, hilly two-lane highways and relatively complex situations (merges, intersections, etc.) makes it easy, at least for me, to visualize the transition to Full Self-Driving. This seems to be a very solid backbone to build on.

Also, the dramatic overnight improvement that resulted from onboarding the new neural nets (thank you Mr. Karpathy) is really impressive. Reminiscent of when Tesla turned on AP1 for the first time.

Eager to see what's to come when they flip the switch on FSD.

Hopefully on time for 3Q18 per the “3 months maybe, 6 months on the outside” comment on Feb 8, right around the time Model 3 production reaches 5,000 weekly production rate, which should be just before sustainable operating profits. Lots of positives coming up.

 

[Runarbt]

havent seen this yet?

CNBC's Latest Report on Tesla (TSLA) 'Trash', Trip Chowdhry Says; 'Expecting a Solid Q1'