General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

FYI, Bloomberg tracker crossed 10K produced. An unofficial milestone since Tesla doesn't do these kind of announcements.

 

[BornToFly]

Audi just released the starting price of it's e-tron SUV, at $99,000, even though it is smaller than the Q7. Audi options aren't cheap, so the final price will be way too high for the size car you are getting (Model Y competitor). As we have been saying all along, Big auto is no threat to Tesla, because they don't want to cannibalize their own ICE offerings.

 

[EinSV]

Major improvements and rave reviews are being reported for the latest AP2 firmware update:

Version 2018.10.4
Software Update 2018.10.4

 

[elasalle]

Tesla: Global Equities Rebuts CNBC Article with View from Loading Dock

 

[SPadival]

Tesla: Global Equities Rebuts CNBC Article with View from Loading Dock

Tripendar goes fanboi crazy most of the time. But he is has been spot on with his on the ground checking for the last few months.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Tesla: Global Equities Rebuts CNBC Article with View from Loading Dock

Tripendar goes fanboi crazy most of the time. But he is has been spot on with his on
the ground checking for the last few months.

Trip's gone "Donald Trump" crazy if you ask me, though this doesn't mean he is necessarily incorrect: "Chowdhury concludes the CNBC report is “another Total Junk news,” that was “written by some Total Clown at CNBC.""

In general, though, I share the view that much of the commercial media is biased, will publish lies for profit, and is generally immoral and untrustworthy.

In contrast, Public, non-profit news media like PBS and BBC can, the vast majority of the time, be trusted to give a clear picture of events worldwide. They aren't beholden to advertisers for clicks and views. They also aren't basically controlled by people like Murdoch and Bezos, who have their own agendas.

 

[Reciprocity]

Audi just released the starting price of it's e-tron SUV, at $99,000, even though it is smaller than the Q7. Audi options aren't cheap, so the final price will be way too high for the size car you are getting (Model Y competitor). As we have been saying all along, Big auto is no threat to Tesla, because they don't want to cannibalize their own ICE offerings.

It's not that when won't, they can't. They would put themselves out of business with no help from Tesla. First, they would be losing money on the EV and then cannibalizing their profitable icev sales. It's a double whammy. Also the more EVs they make, the less efficient they are because they effectively double the number of different models as their icev platforms wind down, they lose scale and EVs grow. But because they aren't going for scale in EVs in any real way, they will lose money on them for a long time. Biggest problem is batteries. The world needs 100 gigafactories and only a few are really being built today. Even Tesla needs to pickup the pace.

 

[RobStark]

According to Seeking Alpha's Anton Wahlman VW CEO confirms in a press conference related to Geneva show that VW has written contracts for €20B battery cell buy at €100 ($123) per kWh.

Lower Cost Than Tesla? Volkswagen's New Battery Cell Costs Under 100 Euro Per KWh - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Posters on other sites claiming to be German speakers say this deal starts in 2025.

I can't find confirmation for €100 ($123) per kWh or 2025 starting date.

If so, doesn't this prove Tesla is way ahead? Tesla should be under $100 by 2020 at the latest and under $80 in 2025.

 

[RobStark]

Audi just released the starting price of it's e-tron SUV, at $99,000, even though it is smaller than the Q7. Audi options aren't cheap, so the final price will be way too high for the size car you are getting (Model Y competitor). As we have been saying all along, Big auto is no threat to Tesla, because they don't want to cannibalize their own ICE offerings.

That is the German price with 19% VAT included.

The Jaguar I-Pace starts at €82k or $101k in Germany.

The I-Pace starts at $69.5k in the USA.

 

[Lessmog]

Could be Thailand Tuk Tuks all going electric

Yes, they may be cheaper there, and Tesla-Bjorn has put out a video of his Thai ride in an electric Tuktuk, but the last laugh is not yours.
Clean Motion has already delivered hundreds of ZBee's (I saw one today, on Hamngatan in Stockholm!) ioki
and is planning an ambitious expansion into South Asia Zbee – Energy efficiency on wheels | Clean Motion
Battery Swap! | Clean Motion

 

[anticitizen13.7]

My general sentiment observations for today:

At the "Main street" level, there is still a lot of toxicity. Reddit is filled with threads regarding the recent CNBC article, with gleeful detractors venting their hatred towards Tesla and hoping for the company's failure. The prevailing sentiment is that there are so many things that can go wrong at Tesla, that the company is most likely doomed. Also, many Model 3 reservation holders, particularly those waiting for non-PUP/SR vehicles, continue to be frustrated and angry in some cases. Loss of tax credit is a big topic, although honestly, anyone relying on a tax credit probably shouldn't be buying a luxury car in the first place.

This maelstrom of negativity is tempered somewhat by what appears to be a much improved Autopilot 2/2.5 update, which includes a new Neural Net. Highway lanekeeping is much improved, particularly where curves are concerned, and the overall drive assist is much smoother. Also, Audi's announcement of the E-Tron's price, $100,000, has IMO mitigated concerns over impact to Model X sales. The E-Tron sits in between Model X and Jaguar's I-Pace in terms of size.

For now, the short term price movements are just noise.

In just under 3 weeks, we'll have a much better picture of Tesla's actual production progress.

 

[kbM3]

Trip's gone "Donald Trump" crazy if you ask me, though this doesn't mean he is necessarily incorrect: "Chowdhury concludes the CNBC report is “another Total Junk news,” that was “written by some Total Clown at CNBC.""

In general, though, I share the view that much of the commercial media is biased, will publish lies for profit, and is generally immoral and untrustworthy.

In contrast, Public, non-profit news media like PBS and BBC can, the vast majority of the time, be trusted to give a clear picture of events worldwide. They aren't beholden to advertisers for clicks and views. They also aren't basically controlled by people like Murdoch and Bezos, who have their own agendas.

Placing Murdoch and Bezos in the same bucket?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Placing Murdoch and Bezos in the same bucket?

Yes, although Bezos is at least an order of magnitude more powerful than Murdoch will ever be.

Both men are ambitious and ruthless. Of the two, I would be much more worried about Bezos in the long run, because of Amazon's increasingly deep reach into society via its cloud computing services like Alexa. Bezos' personality also concerns me, because I've gotten a "Bond Villain" vibe from him for the past 20 years every time I watch an interview with him or hear about worker experiences at Amazon. When I look at other tech entrepreneurs, unusually ambitions ones, I don't get that vibe. Steve Jobs was a jerk, but he was at heart an artist. Mark Zuckerberg is kind of clueless. Elon Musk a dreamer and explorer.

Bezos? At best an Ernst Stavro Blofeld. At worst, Emperor Palpatine.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

My general sentiment observations for today:

At the "Main street" level, there is still a lot of toxicity. Reddit is filled with threads regarding the recent CNBC article, with gleeful detractors venting their hatred towards Tesla and hoping for the company's failure. The prevailing sentiment is that there are so many things that can go wrong at Tesla, that the company is most likely doomed. Also, many Model 3 reservation holders, particularly those waiting for non-PUP/SR vehicles, continue to be frustrated and angry in some cases. Loss of tax credit is a big topic, although honestly, anyone relying on a tax credit probably shouldn't be buying a luxury car in the first place.

This maelstrom of negativity is tempered somewhat by what appears to be a much improved Autopilot 2/2.5 update, which includes a new Neural Net. Highway lanekeeping is much improved, particularly where curves are concerned, and the overall drive assist is much smoother. Also, Audi's announcement of the E-Tron's price, $100,000, has IMO mitigated concerns over impact to Model X sales. The E-Tron sits in between Model X and Jaguar's I-Pace in terms of size.

For now, the short term price movements are just noise.

In just under 3 weeks, we'll have a much better picture of Tesla's actual production progress.

Feels a lot like Oct/Nov of 2016.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Did anyone here vote no to Elon’s comp package? Final results next Wednesday.

I wonder if shorts are so persistent because they know Tesla doesn’t have the votes.

I doubt it, but I can’t think of another reason why implied volatility on options has surged without a delivery or earnings report for two weeks.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Did anyone here vote no to Elon’s comp package? Final results next Wednesday.

I wonder if shorts are so persistent because they know Tesla doesn’t have the votes.

I doubt it, but I can’t think of another reason why implied volatility on options has surged without a delivery or earnings report for two weeks.

What makes you think Tesla doesn’t have the votes?

 

[SPadival]

For now, the short term price movements are just noise.

In just under 3 weeks, we'll have a much better picture of Tesla's actual production progress.

The FUD will not go away until Tesla reaches 5K/week production rate.There will be noise until then.

So I will give another 6 months before the noise disappears.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

What makes you think Tesla doesn’t have the votes?

I don’t see why Tesla wouldn’t, unless the three proxy agencies recommending against the plan actually swayed enough votes, and shorts maybe know this? Not sure why otherwise the sentiment on the stock would be so negative.

Tesla Options Bear Targets Multi-Year Lows By June

100th percentile negative.

 

[Reciprocity]

The stock is down because there is really no proof of a production ramp for then entire year todate. Unless you guys know something I don't. I'm not seeing anything that jumps out at me as ramping. If anything, the ramp is slower on average as the quarter has dragged on. Certainly part was related to this mysterious shutdown, but the fact remains. In less then 3 weeks, Tesla will give official numbers and if that official number isn't 2000/w+ then this stock going down farther. I don't know why it would be a mystery to anyone. The ramp has not really improved since Tesla did 700 cars in the last week of January. I'm frankly shocked at the lack of improvement. Even with model X, they improved production every month after the first few that where really bad, like less than a 100 cars a month bad.

As far as the vote, who knows and who cares. Elon isn't going anywhere. I voted yes. This vote is not why the stock is preforming aimlessly. Is the show ramp with no signs of improvement and nothing more.

 

[Yuri_G]

Good example of the Autopilot improvements. Finally!

Starts at 6:10ish in the video.