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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Commentary from November 2, which I identified correctly, related to @schonelucht ’s time frame.

As I said, you offered the Nov 2 comments as a correction to what schonelucht had stated about early 2018. schonelucht's statement was accurate, stating that he was being too generous was inaccurate.

What's more, schonelucht wrote his/her comment in response to one of mine... you then wrote an inaccurate statement about his/her comment in the discussion schonelucht and I were having, changing (inaccurately) the meaning of the discussion. That is why I responded to your comment. I didn't attempt to portray your comment in a negative light, I clarified an inaccuracy (you introduced into a back and forth between me and another member), something that happens here all the time.

Now, I did also add my two cents about how magnifying and repeating things we do not enjoy does not seem to be of use for any of us, but, that was meant to be helpful, not to portray you negatively... I can only tell you how the comment was intended, it's open to you to decide how to receive it.
 
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As I said, you offered the Nov 2 comments as a correction to what schonelucht had stated about early 2018. schonelucht's statement was accurate, stating that he was being too generous was inaccurate.

What's more, schonelucht wrote his/her comment in response to one of mine... you then wrote an inaccurate statement about his/her comment in the discussion schonelucht and I were having, changing (inaccurately) the meaning of the discussion. That is why I responded to your comment. I didn't attempt to portray your comment in a negative light, I clarified an inaccuracy, something that happens here all the time. Now, I did also add my two cents about how magnifying and repeating things we do not enjoy does not seem to be of use for any of us, but, that was meant to be helpful, not to portray you negatively... I can only tell you how the comment was intended, it's open to you to decide how to receive it.

Again, the management commentary I copy/pasted related to the time period under discussion, which was the 1Q18 production rate. You then took it, as you always do, and tried to spin it in a negative light, even though I had only posted a fact, precisely because I knew you would attack it. You tried nonetheless.

I know that you will continue to argue in the face of facts, but this is neither productive for either of us, or the rest of the community. I am done responding to your pointed attacks.
 
Commentary from November 2, which I identified correctly, related to @schonelucht ’s time frame.

It’s scary that you disagree with a fact, a copy/paste from earnings transcript, which is what I only posted, precisely because I knew you would attack it.

You've added something here with an edit, but, it too is answered by what I've already responded (it was inaccurate to add into the discussion schonelucht and I were having a correction to his/her description of guidance in early 2018. what schonelucht wrote was accurate, saying otherwise was inaccurate).

What's more, it is instructive to understand that you view these things as "attacks." Given that reaction, I can see why statements of facts and use of reason is being met here as it is at the moment.
 
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Here’s the video that got Uber in trouble. Are they using cameras or lidar?

Tempe Police release in-car video from fatal self-driving Uber crash

Elon has eluded that lidar can’t “see” under certain conditions.
Was the person pushing the bicycle under the influence of drugs or alcohol? It’s clear that the person hit by the car didn’t even look where they were going. I see no reason any driver, human or autonomous, should be held liable in this case.
 
Was the person pushing the bicycle under the influence of drugs or alcohol? It’s clear that the person hit by the car didn’t even look where they were going. I see no reason any driver, human or autonomous, should be held liable in this case

Distracted mind would be sufficient explanation. I can relate...

A distracted pedestrian had a major negative impact on our lives about 20 years ago by walking out in front of my wife who was only doing 25 and preparing to slow down at that. It was also between croswalks and dark though earlier time of day.

She had enough time to hit the brakes but not avoid serious contact. Pedestrian medi-vacked and thankfully recovered. Pedestrians spouse refused to acknowledge any fault. Fortunately there were witneses.

Until you have direct experiece it is hard to relate.

I view this incident as overblown reaction to inevitable though unlikely corner case.
 
Cats are so cute...

upload_2018-3-22_9-4-11.png


... but:
 
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Here’s the video that got Uber in trouble. Are they using cameras or lidar?

Tempe Police release in-car video from fatal self-driving Uber crash

Elon has eluded that lidar can’t “see” under certain conditions.

The visual evidence is in stark contrast to the verbal statement before the release in many ways.

1) pedestrian was slowly crossing left to right and was struck by the right fender. Sudden unavoidable accidents occur on the same side of the vehicle as where the pedestrian enters the roadway.

2) the Uber vehicle was over driving its headlights. You should be able to stop the car based on information you can see - in the field of view of the headlights.

Were they on low or high beams? The slow moving pedestrian could have been standing in the center of the roadway, and still been run over. At night, for visible light cameras to work, you need active illumination. (The headlights did not work well enough).

3) for accidents unlike this, where pedestrians are entering the roadway rather than leaving the roadway, it makes sense for the car to do physics on objects it sees off roadway. This means path, trajectory and center of gravity shifted with respect to center of support. Where supports, by definition, show no motion with respect to the ground at the point of contact - like the stationary foot when you start walking.

There might be different rules for city people vs country people (where there are no street lights).

The car was over driving its lights.

The person was effectively standing in the roadway.

The automous part of the vehicle did not, does not work.

Executives should field test their cars personally before putting them on public streets. I think there was a video of a Volvo failing this test 2 years ago. The executive was not happy, but the speed was low.


I wonder what the track record of corrective action was...

Anyway, a country person thinks they were over driving their headlights and thus at fault, if held to the same standard as a human.

A city person may blame the city for providing spotty street lighting with shadows.

It all depends on the jury.
 
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My Tesla Q1 2018 Predictions

Model S/X : 22000 deliveries
Model 3 : 8000 deliveries (Production 10k)
Energy revenue : 500 million (Australia Battery project. some contribution from Powerwall 2, Solar roof )
Revenue : 3.6 billion (2.5 + 0.3 + 0.5 + 0.3) (Automotive Sales + Leasing + Energy+ Services)

You predict essentially the same total number of deliveries as last quarter (30k), but with a product mix that sees over 6000 expensive S/X's replaced by cheaper Model 3's. Yet you still predict total automotive revenue to rise by $100M. Why?
 
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Nice! That really puts in perspective just how big a lift we are talking about. Elon's ambition is
following his red Roadster out to Ceres!
Keep in mind that as of Elon's MP2, Tesla is already in or getting in several industries, not just automakers:
  • auto makers
  • auto parts makers
  • dealers
  • gas stations
  • utilities
  • solar manufacturing and installation
  • ride sharing
The comparison between Elon's comp package $650B vs sum of major auto makers' market cap $651B may be ambitious on 1st glance, but add the other industries, getting there almost seems inevitable...
 
Keep in mind that as of Elon's MP2, Tesla is already in or getting in several industries, not just automakers:
  • auto makers
  • auto parts makers
  • dealers
  • gas stations
  • utilities
  • solar manufacturing and installation
  • ride sharing
The comparison between Elon's comp package $650B vs sum of major auto makers' market cap $651B may be ambitious on 1st glance, but add the other industries, getting there almost seems inevitable...

Let's get to 1,000 weekly sustainable units first.
 
There is no way to know for sure, but I can almost guarantee they have surpassed 1000/w since they can back online. I highly doubt they will get to even 2,000/w and that is very bad. More like 1,500/w unless we get a lot more information in the next 8 days.


Same. I'm waiting for the next few days to see if there's big VIN invites. But if not, I highly doubt we'll close the quarter over 1700/w.
 
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Please keep us posted, while remembering this data is not conclusive and has lots of inherent biases...

Note that the "VIN Chart" line has not moved up much in the last couple of weeks...

The reason for the VIN chart not moving is because the VINS are assigned from a larger spread. Some of the new higher VINs we see are balanced by continued fill ins from lower VINs. Also, each point is just as influencial on the graph. Since it only has four degrees of freedom, that means many more points are needed to overcome inertia from the initial slow allocations.

Tesla confirmed they will start inviting Canadians this week. Let's hope a bigger bunch of them.
 
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