Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yeah a lot of people seem to be waking up on the wrong side of the bed these last few days, I myself included. I find myself going back editing out snippiness from my posts more often that I wanted
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We all went camping together, but it started raining and now we are all cooped up inside getting on each others nerves.
Soon, the sun will come out and everyone will go outside and say, "Isn't this a lovely day?"
(see also Camp Grenada)
Dynastar
Member
I believe we will eventually see 5k+/week, but there's no question it has been much more difficult then Tesla imagined, and so far there has been no evidence that an S-curve is happening. Each little increase in production looks like trench warfare, slow and painful, and much more like a linear increase then an exponential. I'm working under the assumption that will continue. Elon and company have worked wonders but they've never ramped a product line like the 3 and the evidence shows they don't know what to expect.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Looks plenty exponential to me. Everything looks linear when you zoom in to too short of a time horizon, basically don't do short term trade based on expectation of exponential growth
Once the new pack line is running, I expect a very vertical section of the S. Followed by a gentler slope to 5+k, then another jump when the 10k equipment comes on line, followed by an approach path to 10k. Rampy staircase.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Good point, the middle part of the S curve gives the sharpest increase. I think the Feb shutdown and the subsequent increase in March from 700/wk to 1500-2000/wk is the manifestation of in this. Once we get past this mid point the rate of increase may slow down. I see a lot of anticipation for a big jump once the Grahmann line goes into production at GGF. I think we need to be cautious here because once we add the capacity from Grohmann, the bottleneck may shift to other parts of the M3 production, and we may not see the full benefit of the Grohmann line immediately. Initially it may look like the Grohmann line isn't working.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I watched the very regrettable collision between Uber's self-driving Volvo and the pedestrian.
I hope that all manufacturers of self-driving cars carry out tests, simulating "inadvisable pedestrian movements" of this sort, to make sure their cars deal with all but the most ridiculous cases.
If her death leads to a suite of "Herzberg Tests" for self-driving carmakers to use on prototypes, that could be a respectful memorial.
I hope that all manufacturers of self-driving cars carry out tests, simulating "inadvisable pedestrian movements" of this sort, to make sure their cars deal with all but the most ridiculous cases.
If her death leads to a suite of "Herzberg Tests" for self-driving carmakers to use on prototypes, that could be a respectful memorial.
K_Dizzle
Member
Not sure if you guys are aware but lots of Canadians reporting they received invites to configure today.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Waiting4M3
Active Member
How many employees does Tesla have in Canada? I see mention of 8 stores/galleries on Wiki. Doesn't seem to suggest too many employees to go through, maybe <1000?
That's showing the total produced, not the rate of production.
Rate of production (differentiation of that curve) will not be exponential.
I have not seen a Chinese EV that I would own yet, at any price.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
The derivative (and therefore integral) of an exponential is an exponential
DurandalAI
Member
Owners are getting invites as well. Model 3 Owners club just posted their invite in Canada. Certainly a tax credit move.
pz1975
Active Member
Got my invite (Canadian owner, reserved the first day).
zmarty
Member
BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020
BMW will not mass produce electric cars until 2020 because its current technology is not profitable enough to scale up for volume production, the chief executive said on Thursday.
BMW will not mass produce electric cars until 2020 because its current technology is not profitable enough to scale up for volume production, the chief executive said on Thursday.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
FYI, the most expensive version, LR+PUP+EAP+FSD+Paint+Wheel at $59,500 USD ($76,923 CAD) would exceed the $75,000 CAD limit for Ontario tax rebate program.
Corrections:
the max version is shown to be $78,000 CAD
Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter
but it qualifies because it's based on the price of the car before including options:
Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Buick Envision is made in China then imported into the US.
Cadillac CT6 PHEV is made in China then imported into the US.
Volvo S60 Inscription is made in China then imported into the US.
Volvo S90 is made in China then imported into the US.
2019 Ford Focus will be made in China then imported into US. This is not "niche" in any way but a mass market mainstream vehicle.
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