It’s not about the exit. It’s about the entry. At the start of the year the consensus was we were starting from somewhere at 1k/week progressing towards 2500 near the end of the quarter.
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It’s not about the exit. It’s about the entry. At the start of the year the consensus was we were starting from somewhere at 1k/week progressing towards 2500 near the end of the quarter.
Already discussed above. There is no chance that 3-4k S/X are all that need be shuffled in order to scoot the credit out a quarter. None. Of course, we may disagree about this, as it appears we do. Time shall tell.
the whole world has known for at least a month that Jan and Feb were averaging well below 1,000 per week. nothing new today re about how production was at the start of the quarter.
That the amount of Model S/X I’ve been l saying Tesla needed to shuffle for weeks as people have been telling me there’s “no way” Tesla is pushing out 200K until Q3.
What’s more this has already happened. About a month ago, overnight Tesla went from a 1-2 month wait time for S/X to 4 months of wait time.
Again, we shall see. There's got to be a lot of 3s shuffled as well, IMO, as I wrote above. We'll know soon enough depending on whether many/most of the next few batches of invites are Canada-centric. If Tesla plans to get the Mar-May folks in the US, those invites have to fly Real Soon Now.
Now that the incentive package for Elon has been passed with high margin, I feel the sensible investment approach is to save cash, keep adding shares. Don't use borrowed money, just relax and keep adding shares with free cash. That's what I am going to do with most of my accounts.
If there happen to be a recession, or a big pullback, appreciate the opportunity, buy more. Otherwise just keep adding shares at your own pace. Quarterly results beat or miss, who cares? Either way it's good for me. Let the shorts to worry about it.
If there happen to be a recession, or a big pullback, appreciate the opportunity, buy more. Otherwise just keep adding shares at your own pace. Quarterly results beat or miss, who cares? Either way it's good for me. Let the shorts to worry about it.
dc_h
Active Member
Agreed. They would need to push S/X sales overseas, about 15k export and 10k USA. For Model 3, they need to export about the same ratio.
Re communication, I don’t think they want a target on their back. Stay quiet about timing sale 200,000 until Q3 and the plan is in process.
I agree. When I thought about this I realized that the earlier rounds were existing owners, by definition Roadster/S/X owners, who were probably more likely to wait for dual motor configs than "newbies", who are all salivating over finally getting their first Tesla
. So maybe when the newbie invitations went out the uptake rate surprised them.
To me that just looks like somebody crossing the street, who is only seen just before impact due to the (very normal) lighting situation. I think this accident would also have happened with a human driver (actual lighting situation may be difficult to assess because of the limited dynamic range of the camera, maybe a human eye with its better dynamic range may have noticed the crossing person from further away). But I sure hope that the superhuman vision systems of automated driving systems would have prevented this. Certainly Lidar should have seen this, there are no weather conditions in this particular situation that would prevent the visibility for Lidar.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
You’re being too kind @schonelucht. Let me remind us the actual management commentary from November 2:
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Is that why – I guess, yeah off of a low number but are you getting to a few thousand per week already by the end of this year or did you mean to say that you'll have a few thousand produced in total by the year-end?
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Oh, no, no. Again, it's really tricky because of that being exponential. If you were to move the calendar date by plus or minus a few weeks, you'd see gigantic differences in weekly output. But what I meant is something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.
But there's (47:56), if you said okay, what about a few weeks after Q4? I'd say, yeah, definitely. So, it's just going to be very, very – rising very, very sharply at that time.
5 months later...
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But that was before the $52bn dollar compensation plan VA. All will be well now, just you wait. ;-)
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Fun Fact
As of yesterday's close Market Caps in US Dollars.
General Motors $53B
Ford...................$44B
FCAU.................$32.5B
VW Group..........$80B
Daimler Benz......$72.5B
BMW....................$56B
Toyota.................$211B
Honda..................$61B
Nissan..................$41B
Total......................$651B.
For Elon to fully max out his compensation package Tesla needs market cap of $650B.
As of yesterday's close Market Caps in US Dollars.
General Motors $53B
Ford...................$44B
FCAU.................$32.5B
VW Group..........$80B
Daimler Benz......$72.5B
BMW....................$56B
Toyota.................$211B
Honda..................$61B
Nissan..................$41B
Total......................$651B.
For Elon to fully max out his compensation package Tesla needs market cap of $650B.
schonelucht’s comment was about the start of 2018, which is when Tesla reset best case goals to 2.5K by end of Q1, 5K by end of Q2 (as schonelucht correctly referenced). the comments you quoted are from 11/2/17.
I get that you are still feeling frustration, but, I don’t see how misremembering events as if there was a larger gap between ideal and reality than there actually was will help you (or anyone else feeling frustration) work through their reactions to these events.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I pointed out actual management commentary from November 2, and did not “misremember events.” Please stop trying portray every single one of my posts in a negative light.
the misremembering was referring to the quote from Tesla management from November 2017 as a correction to schonelucht's description of early 2018 guidance. he/she referenced early 2018 guidance correctly.
That is not an accurate statement.
Nice! That really puts in perspective just how big a lift we are talking about. Elon's ambition is
following his red Roadster out to Ceres!
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Commentary from November 2, which I identified correctly, related to @schonelucht ’s time frame.
It’s scary that you disagree with a fact, a copy/paste from earnings transcript, which is what I only posted, precisely because I knew you would attack it.
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