General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

You hope for both of us, because I'm out of it, especially considering @Waiting4M3's daily VIN assignment updates ended abruptly.

The data is publicly available, March VIN assignment continues progressing at >2X of Jan-Feb rate.

Dec: 70VIN
Jan: 141 VIN, avg 4.5/day
Feb: 109 VIN, avg 3.9/day, or if you count 4 day shutdown, 4.5/day
Mar: 242 VIN, avg 11.5/day, averaging last 2 wks starting 3/7, we have 14.2/day

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The reason for the VIN chart not moving is because the VINS are assigned from a larger spread. Some of the new higher VINs we see are balanced by continued fill ins from lower VINs. Also, each point is just as influencial on the graph. Since it only has four degrees of freedom, that means many more points are needed to overcome inertia from the initial slow allocations. Tesla confirmed they will start inviting Canadians this week. Let's hope a bigger bunch of them.

With Tesla, any projection based on hope, will be proven too optimistic.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The data is publicly available, March VIN assignment continues progressing at >2X of Jan-Feb rate.

Dec: 70VIN
Jan: 141 VIN, avg 4.5/day
Feb: 109 VIN, avg 3.9/day, or if you count 4 day shutdown, 4.5/day
Mar: 242 VIN, avg 11.5/day, averaging last 2 wks starting 3/7, we have 14.2/day

View attachment 288331

According to InsideEV, Jan/Feb averaged 500 to 700/wk, so twice that is less than 1,500/wk, right? Just trying to help out the hopeful folks.

 

[Waiting4M3]

According to InsideEV, Jan/Feb averaged 500 to 700/wk, so twice that is less than 1,500/wk, right? Just trying to help out the hopeful folks.

Scaling by assuming 600/wk production and 4.5 invites/day for Jan-Feb, then the 11.5 invites avg in March scales to 1533/wk, the higher 14.2 invites avg in the last 2 weeks scales to 1893/wk

Simple math

 

[jimmyjohn]

Will we be able to test this 'simple math' (and other projections) - for any kind of predictability / effectiveness - in early April?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Will we be able to test this 'simple math' (and other projections) - for any kind of predictability / effectiveness - in early April?

Yes, around 4/2-3 I imagine

 

[Compton]

Good thing I have invested in the long term so that I don't need to obsess over the short-term production rate.

 

[Waiting4M3]

BTW Elon was at GF yesterday, in Fremont today. I guess the pay package is already working.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Scaling by assuming 600/wk production and 4.5 invites/day for Jan-Feb, then the 11.5 invites avg in March scales to 1533/wk, the higher 14.2 invites avg in the last 2 weeks scales to 1893/wk

Simple math

You should always list the major assumptions your "simple math" includes like extrapolating from an extremely small subset, with changing geographical mix, different demographic (previous owner vs. non-owner), etc., etc., and so on, but sure, let's title it "simple math" and hope for the best! Elon never disappoints...

 

[Waiting4M3]

You should always list the major assumptions your "simple math" includes like extrapolating from an extremely small subset, with changing geographical mix, different demographic (previous owner vs. non-owner), etc., etc., and so on, but sure, let's title it "simple math" and hope for the best! Elon never disappoints...

Nah, I prefer you post some research/analysis, and let me pick it apart. It's more fun that way, for me

 

[Reciprocity]

You should always list the major assumptions your "simple math" includes like extrapolating from an extremely small subset, with changing geographical mix, different demographic (previous owner vs. non-owner), etc., etc., and so on, but sure, let's title it "simple math" and hope for the best! Elon never disappoints...

I would also like to point out that at some point, Elon eventually far exceeds what we thought was possible as well. When he said that they hoped to build up to 20,000 model S per year for example. When people like Bob Lutz stated that the Model X was not manufacturerable (made up word) in any real quantities. At some point, Elon will be right. I dont know that this is that point. But at some point, we will see that steep part of the S curve. My point is that hitting the vertical on the S curve should be more noticeable then what we have seen to date. The best hope extrapolation is 1893/w by @Waiting4M3 as you point out the math is not so simple. I content that a real ramp will be more obvious and not require such hard math.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Something to go with the math:

Dallas reporting 20 M3 deliveries per day

Fremont doing 100 MS/X/3 deliveries a day
Assume that M3 deliveries in the US is about the same rate as MS+MX at this point, about 10K/Q, this means that 100 deliveries at Fremont could mean 50 M3/day.

Marina Del Ray is almost booked solid through 3-31
Marina Del Ray is a new and large delivery facility, and I expect them to deliver at least as many as Dallas.

They just opened a new San Diego delivery center that can do 200 deliveries per day. I also see San Diego reservations seem to get a lot more invites, on the M3 invites sheet I saw a 1st day online non-owner with an Apr-Jun window from San Diego, who got a VIN assigned yesterday. Assuming SD is as busy as Marina Del Ray now, then they should also deliver 20 M3/day

So just at these 4 sites, which covers mostly California and Texas, Tesla could be delivering 110 M3/day, 770/wk. Does it prove that we're at 1500/wk or more? I don't know, but looking pretty good.

 

[SteveG3]

Trump’s trade announcement, live now, first example where he thinks trade is unfair with China- autos (repeats numbers Elon tweeted, 25% vs 2.5%). Says negotiations are ongoing with Chinese (this was a general statement, not auto specific).

Currently, of course, Chinese auto imports are nil to the US.

 

[Mkorpal]

Something to go with the math:

Dallas reporting 20 M3 deliveries per day
Marina Del Ray is almost booked solid through 3-31
Fremont doing 100 MS/X/3 deliveries a day

Assume that M3 deliveries in the US is about the same rate as MS+MX at this point, about 10K/Q, this means that 100 deliveries at Fremont could mean 50 M3/day.

Marina Del Ray is a new and large delivery facility, and I expect them to deliver at least as many as Dallas.

They just opened a new San Diego delivery center that can do 200 deliveries per day. I also see San Diego reservations seem to get a lot more invites, on the M3 invites sheet I saw a 1st day online non-owner with an Apr-Jun window from San Diego, who got a VIN assigned yesterday. Assuming SD is as busy as Marina Del Ray now, then they should also deliver 20 M3/day

So just at these 4 sites, which covers mostly California and Texas, Tesla could be delivering 110 M3/day, 770/wk. Does it prove that we're at 1500/wk or more? I don't know, but looking pretty good.

That is assuming that delivery specialists aren't stretching the truth a bit.

 

[HG Wells]

Trump’s trade announcement, live now, first example where he thinks trade is unfair with China- autos (repeats numbers Elon tweeted, 25% vs 2.5%). Says negotiations are ongoing with Chinese (this was a general statement, not auto specific).

Currently, of course, Chinese auto imports are nil to the US.

They wont be nil for long. Expect lowend EV's in a year or two.

 

[Curt Renz]

Trump’s trade announcement, live now, first example where he thinks trade is unfair with China- autos (repeats numbers Elon tweeted, 25% vs 2.5%). Says negotiations are ongoing with Chinese (this was a general statement, not auto specific).

Currently, of course, Chinese auto imports are nil to the US.

Bloomberg has been carrying the entire tariff announcement live from the White House. CNBC seems to think wall-to-wall coverage of Facebook is more vital.

 

[DurandalAI]

Trump’s trade announcement, live now, first example where he thinks trade is unfair with China- autos (repeats numbers Elon tweeted, 25% vs 2.5%). Says negotiations are ongoing with Chinese (this was a general statement, not auto specific).

Currently, of course, Chinese auto imports are nil to the US.

Except for all those auto parts that are imported. Would they be included?

Edit: Many domestically assembled vehicles in the US have high percentages of parts made in China.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Am I the only one who noticed ValueAnalyst's new footnote to his posts: "@SteveG3 disagrees with this post." Funny. Let's see if we can share the same sandbox. I favour having different opinions. That is what makes the TMC Forum special. Agree to disagree is ok in my book.

 

[SteveG3]

They wont be nil for long. Expect lowend EV's in a year or two.

Yup, big hole being left open for Chinese automakers. Not sure about a year or two, but, would be quite surprising if they don’t come.

 

[Reciprocity]

They wont be nil for long. Expect lowend EV's in a year or two.

Each one with $7500 tax payer funded discount. When China starts dumping EVs like they did Solar, you can probably get a Corolla sized EV for free for a while in certain states that have incentives on top of Fed incentives.