General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[30seconds]

Possible arrival of Grohmann line on March 7th (in Oakland) • r/teslamotors

I think AWD general production timing will be dependent on bringing this line up

 

[Waiting4M3]

Does anyone know approximately how many hours it takes to install a Powerwall?

My coworker was one of the earlier ones to get it in CA, last July, and took them 3 visits. The 1st 2 visits (both whole day) were the actual install. The 3rd visit was required because they had some bugs after the 1st 2 visits and couldn't not commission it. I hope it better now.

I agree. I don't expect Model 3 to reach 4k/w+ rate until May at the earliest, and VINs being registered this early doesn't align with other data.

Tesla delivered massive batch of 2,000 Powerwalls to Vermont electric utility, only ~10% installed

On the other hand, Powerwall is growing multiple times quicker than I had projected for 2018. This is not priced in the current stock price.

Does anyone know approximately how many hours it takes to install a Powerwall?



Agreed, as long as the buyer has a long-term time horizon (i.e. two years or more through the next recession).

VIN registration doesn't align with other data "yet". VIN registration is a leading indicator, and assignment and delivery are trailing indicators. You have to allow for 1-2 weeks of lag before you expect to see some of these new VIN showing up in assignment. I don't want to get too pumped for now but new VIN registration is always a good sign, better than no new VIN registration, right?

 

[elasalle]

My coworker was one of the earlier ones to get it in CA, last July, and took them 3 visits. The 1st 2 visits (both whole day) were the actual install. The 3rd visit was required because they had some bugs after the 1st 2 visits and couldn't not commission it. I hope it better now.

VIN registration doesn't align with other data "yet". VIN registration is a leading indicator, and assignment and delivery are trailing indicators. You have to allow for 1-2 weeks of lag before you expect to see some of these new VIN showing up in assignment. I don't want to get too pumped for now but new VIN registration is always a good sign, better than no new VIN registration, right?

M2c.
.Also, Assignment/delivery dependent on end destination. End of quarter when everything going to Cali, might be quicker. Beginning of quarter when deliveries are further out, they might be taking longer ..

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I don't want to get too pumped for now but new VIN registration is always a good sign, better than no new VIN registration, right?

Exactly, when we almost hit the top of the VIN limit it would've indicated a production slowdown or stop. Now we have a lot of headroom. As long as there's a lot of VINs out there we know there's a chance they're ramping up or will be soon.

 

[TradingInvest]

I spent some time thinking about the current trade dispute, I think there is less than 3% chance that this turn into a full blown trade war between China and US. China understands the situation. US also has internal pressure. In the end we will see a deal that's relatively fair for both sides. The end result should be very positive for Tesla's long term growth.

Edit:
Export is essential to Chinese economy. If China stops trading with US, 200 million of their workers probably will lose job.

For Tesla investors, in the long run, the only thing that matters is how many shares do you own. Don't be tricked by the shorts.

 

[sub]

I do find it entertaining that China and other countries are going after Trumps base in retaliation. I agree this will get negotiated and Trump will back down once his base loses their minds over this, plus he is a coward. Corporal bone spurs for the loss.

 

[sundaymorning]

Seeing green again when the broader market is red, vintage Tesla bullishness.

 

[TradingInvest]

Quick question, on average, after the VIN number is assigned, how long does it take to get the Model 3?

 

[RubberToe]

Quick question, on average, after the VIN number is assigned, how long does it take to get the Model 3?

 

[colettimj]

Invites are going out. Ask me how I know

 

[RobStark]

Smaller Subprime Auto Lenders Are Starting to Fold

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Very dependent on the existing electrical, and local permitting/ inspecting process. Actual work could be done in a couple hours or less (best case).

Let's say CA first. Tesla may be working with local/state governments to streamline the permitting/inspecting process - or wishful thinking?

I know this: the Powerwall segment is tracking multiple times quicker growth than I had included in my projections for this segment.

One year ahead of my earlier projection, which I will have to adjust this weekend.

 

[mongo]

Let's say CA first. Tesla may be working with local/state governments to streamline the permitting/inspecting process - or wishful thinking?

As areas get more used to PW installs, I can see them allowing on-line permit creation and asynchronous (contractor does not need to be there when inspector is) approvals. That would help a bunch.

 

[Dennisj00]

I just had the pleasure of attending the graduation of 13 Tesla Start service technicians. As I’ve posted before, our local community college, CPCC, was the first of 2 selected in the nation by Tesla -out of ~1400. A 12 week course to prepare T service technicians.

A very happy diverse group of 12 guys and 1 young lady, ready to start their jobs across the country.

Tesla and CPCC plan to scale the program to their other campuses.

No advice but continue to buy the dips!

 

[Waiting4M3]

Meanwhile in ICE land

Ford is recalling 350,000 trucks and SUVs that might move when gear shift is in 'park'

 

[Starno]

Looks like a new wave of invitations has begun (not for this sad line-waiter, though) • r/teslamotors

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yes. And if you do that (combined with the 8-K from Tesla) you will see that that no sensible time lag from VIN registration to the rest of the indicators merges. Which is why I make the conclusion that I make. But apparently no one agrees, yet no one has tried to reconcile the data.

Completely agree. I found your conclusions obvious, which made me think that other party was arguing semantics without actually looking at the data.
After all you created original tracker, right?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Your initial conclusion read (to me) that the VINs no longer have a tight correlation to production. This may or may not be the case. If the production did have a step change, the production rate may indeed match the VIN rate. It could also be that Tesla has another reason to pull so many VINs. At this point, I don't think we have the data needed to say which is the actual situation.

You haven't looked at the data, have you? Or are you new to it?
No point in arguing with an expert opinion without putting effort in to understand what is data telling you.
@schoneluch is the wrong person to argue with if you don't go and do some serious homework first. He comes with well formed and data based conclusions, doing his homework, so he isn't going to make a trivial mistake of overlooking simple explanations that you can correct without looking at details.

 

[elasalle]

You haven't looked at the data, have you? Or are you new to it?
I find it mildly annoying that people are arguing with an expert opinion without putting effort in to understand what is data telling them.
@schoneluch is the wrong person to argue with if you don't go and do some serious homework first.

Expert or not, here is what @schoneluch stated ..

Unfortunately it just means that VIN registration is running so much ahead of actual production that we can't use it anymore as an indicator of anything. I would not be surprised if this is a deliberate attempt by Tesla to reduce visibility on production rate.

With 18/20K Vins and just 10K M3's delivered it seems obvious that VIN registration front runs Production. But VIN registration itself can be because it is needed on a low level activity even prior to production - say just to print a label for various BINS, or add entries to some database based on the projected run-rate. So I don't think conclusion that it is kind of to mislead is correct. just MHO ( I don't claim to be an expert here, just thinking logically)

As stated elsewhere by me - Assignment/Delivery could be happening post vehicle production - and depending on delivery destination could be delayed as compared to when vehicle is actually produced.

 

[mongo]

You haven't looked at the data, have you? Or are you new to it?
No point in arguing with an expert opinion without putting effort in to understand what is data telling you.
@schoneluch is the wrong person to argue with if you don't go and do some serious homework first. He comes with well formed and data based conclusions, doing his homework, so he isn't going to make a trivial mistake of overlooking simple explanations that you can correct without looking at details.

I have no beef with @schonelucht or the interpretation of data. I was viewing their post as referencing the additional 2.9k of registrations specifically in the post they quoted. I see now that it could also have been in reference to the 29k total registration number which changes the meaning of the post entirely. That being the additional registrations/ registration count has lost useful significance given the highest VIN reported being half the highest registered VIN. (I personally think the registered VIN increase is meaningful, though possibly phase shifted).

I do disagree with the registration to hide production rate concept though. With everyone posting configured and in the wild VINs, the only gain would be by purposely skipping VIN to make things look faster than they are, which they have no need to do.