General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EinSV]

There is already one at 18K in the spreadsheet. When I look at the VIN graph I see a stepwise change every week or so. Today I see a new step to 18K, 4 days after the step to 16K, and 7 days after the step to 15K. I interpret that as being at 3K/week and going up.

Seems promising -- this may suggest they are trending above 2000. (Not sure I'm ready to make the leap to 3000 yet though).

 

[EinSV]

Guys and girls. Stop for a moment. There is no need to speculate. We KNOW the production rate. Tesla TOLD US 4 days ago.

This is in official investor communications. That's as official as it gets.
You really want to argue that Tesla is intentionally lying in investor reports? Really? Have fun joining the bunch of shorts who claim exactly the same. It's stupid and it's nonsense.

The current rate, these 7 days, is 2000/week give or take a few dozen. Not 3000. Not 1500. Not anything else. 2000. Say it after me. 2000/week. Then afterwards feel free to argue why you think next week is going to be 3000/week. But don't claim this week is 3000.

I personally find it is useful to get different perspectives and data on where production may be heading. A few of the more optimistic folks on the forum were predicting 2000/week leading into the last report. They turned out to be right. Looking only at past VIN rates and fitting them to a line missed that:

So far the good news. Now for the less good news : the slope of the two trendlines is the number of VINS assigned per day (assuming there are no gaps in the VIN assignment!) For the blue series this slope is 75 cars/day or 525 per week. The red slope is 135 cars/day or 945 per week. This is clearly much less than everyone is currently hoping (between 1000 and 1500; I've seen some here mentioning close to 2000/week after the NHTSA disclosures). [from March 25]

 

[Yggdrasill]

The current rate, these 7 days, is 2000/wk give or take a few dozen. Not 3000. Not 1500. Not anything else. 2000. Say it after me. 2000/week. Then afterwards feel free to argue why you think next week is going to be 3000/week. But don't claim this week is 3000.

I agree with Reciprocity. It's not as simple as it being 2000/wk.

They did say that they expected to make 2000 this week, but that is not the same as being at a rate of 2000/wk. If they for instance had a two-day shutdown, the expected production could be something like:

Monday: 300
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday: 350
Friday: 450
Saturday: 450
Sunday: 450

This would mean a production of 2000, while they would exit the week at 3150/wk. And I'm not saying that something like this is the case - I'm just saying that we don't have the required data to say exactly how the ramp is going. Even with Teslas official information.

 

[NicoV]

Guys and girls. Stop for a moment. There is no need to speculate. We KNOW the production rate. Tesla TOLD US 4 days ago.



This is in official investor communications. That's as official as it gets.
You really want to argue that Tesla is intentionally lying in investor reports? Really? Have fun joining the bunch of shorts who claim exactly the same. It's stupid and it's nonsense.

The current rate, these 7 days, is 2000/week give or take a few dozen. Not 3000. Not 1500. Not anything else. 2000. Say it after me. 2000/week. Then afterwards feel free to argue why you think next week is going to be 3000/week. But don't claim this week is 3000.

Btw. Thanks @Zhelko Dimic for the kind words. I really appreciate it.

I’m not claiming they’re producing at 3000/week. They do seem to issue vins at a 3000/week rate. We’ll see whether this is sustainable, if they don’t have a matching production rate soon, we won’t see VINs issued at that rate anymore. For me everything indicates that we’re in the steep part of the production ramp. Doug Field indicated we were at 200/week on 23/3, 10 days later we get official confirmation of a much higher rate of 2020/week. One week later we see indications of a still higher ramp, that’s good enough for me.

 

[Starno]

I’m not claiming they’re producing at 3000/week. They do seem to issue vins at a 3000/week rate. We’ll see whether this is sustainable, if they don’t have a matching production rate soon, we won’t see VINs issued at that rate anymore. For me everything indicates that we’re in the steep part of the production ramp. Doug Field indicated we were at 200/week on 23/3, 10 days later we get official confirmation of a much higher rate of 2020/week. One week later we see indications of a still higher ramp, that’s good enough for me.

This or we're about to be disappointed, and for the next 10-15 days we will have 0 new VIN registered ...

 

[dc_h]

Not lying if they believed it to be true at the moment they published it. What you are saying is that Tesla would never purposely be ambiguous.. or that Tesla is finally being consecutive and accurate with estimations just because it's in an 8k. You could be right and wrong at the same time just based on the moments before and days after the release of the 8k. It could be as simple as a software update that fixed a speed bump on one of the manufacturing steps that slowed the entire process. They could have turned on the grohmamn machine and the shake down period ended the day after the 8k with on issues instead of the anticipation at the time of the 8k that it would take longer to have it start contributing. Days vs weeks could explain what appears to an escalation in VIN registrations, assignments and invites. It could all be smoke and mirrors. The only reason I could think that it would be subterfuge is if Tesla is trying to pump the stock for a capital raise. That would be something that the sec would frown on much more then under estimating production. Also, Tesla might already have issues with the sec over being to aggressive with estimates and not delivering.

I don't know why we all the sudden trust Tesla what the ramp is at 2000/w and not higher when it's clear we can't believe them when that say 2.5k/w and 5k/w and miss the first 3 quarters in a row. We will see about the second.

Going back less then a month, Tesla had registered about 18,000 vin's. I get that VIN registrations aren't a true measure of anything but that is at a pace of well North of 3000/w. We know they didn't hit 2000/w until the last week of last month and should have produced another 2k from the 1st to today. That leaves a huge excess of VINs and a every quickening pace of registrations. We can assume Tesla is gaming us at the risk of poking the sec that already has issues with Tesla's production promises, or we can assume Tesla anticipates a sizable step up in production very soon. More deliveries should help tell the final part of this story. It's going to be hard to miss 3k/w. Tesla is also going to run out is people who want first production cars in North America sooner then later.

Lastly there is also a theory thanks Tesla is trying to shift some is deliveries to outside the US for tax credit advantages. They will need AWD an potentially the smaller battery to accomplish this. We might even see the P version sooner then expected as they found them testing a model 3 with dual motor, air suspension and huge red breaker callipers at a race track.

If ever there were a time to under promise and over deliver.

Also mentioned earlier is batching. They may be adjusting batches and doing bigger batches and needing a bigger range to work with. They seemed to be doing a color a day, previously doing batches of 200, which was daily production. If they are up to 300 or 400, maybe they do bigger batches to optimize paint operations.

 

[Starno]

This EC is going to be interesting.

 

[ggr]

If ever there were a time to under promise and over deliver.

Also mentioned earlier is batching. They may be adjusting batches and doing bigger batches and needing a bigger range to work with. They seemed to be doing a color a day, previously doing batches of 200, which was daily production. If they are up to 300 or 400, maybe they do bigger batches to optimize paint operations.

There's only one digit of the VIN that reflects any production differences, and that's the motor (single/dual/performance variants). So I don't see batching needing more VINs.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I agree with Reciprocity. It's not as simple as it being 2000/wk.

They did say that they expected to make 2000 this week, but that is not the same as being at a rate of 2000/wk. If they for instance had a two-day shutdown, the expected production could be something like:

Monday: 300
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday: 350
Friday: 450
Saturday: 450
Sunday: 450

This would mean a production of 2000, while they would exit the week at 3150/wk. And I'm not saying that something like this is the case - I'm just saying that we don't have the required data to say exactly how the ramp is going. Even with Teslas official information.

Interesting idea about a shutdown, note the very low count of 2 VINs in Troy's sheet on 4/5. The other days this week 4/2-6 saw 43, 27, 26, 25 assigned VINs. Also this from the Q1 delivery report:

"We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment."​

We only know of the Feb shutdown, and the rumored Jan 1st week shutdown, what other were there that can qualify as several?

 

[Reciprocity]

Interesting idea about a shutdown, note the very low count of 2 VINs in Troy's sheet on 4/5. The other days this week 4/2-6 saw 43, 27, 26, 20 assigned VINs. Also this from the Q1 delivery report:

"We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment."​

We only know of the Feb shutdown, and the rumored Jan 1st week shutdown, what other were there that can qualify as several?

Couple=2, few=3 or more. Several.. Usually means more than a few.

Q: How many shutdowns did you have, a few?
A: More like several.

Either way, it's more than a couple.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I’m not claiming they’re producing at 3000/week. They do seem to issue vins at a 3000/week rate. We’ll see whether this is sustainable, if they don’t have a matching production rate soon, we won’t see VINs issued at that rate anymore. For me everything indicates that we’re in the steep part of the production ramp. Doug Field indicated we were at 200/week on 23/3, 10 days later we get official confirmation of a much higher rate of 2020/week. One week later we see indications of a still higher ramp, that’s good enough for me.

I think it's more important to be open minded than to be optimistic or conservative. As investors we need to be be aware of both upside and downside in order to make optimum decisions. Exchanging ideas on how to analyze Tesla production ramp is always helpful. I think when more data comes out, someone will be right and someone will be wrong, it doesn't mean that the "winner" gets to talk and "loser" has to shut up, we don't know whose idea will work better the next time. It's best to continue the discussion with open mind.

 

[landis]

There's only one digit of the VIN that reflects any production differences, and that's the motor (single/dual/performance variants). So I don't see batching needing more VINs.

Color isn't in VIN. Are you sure there is no vin on chassis prior to paint?

 

[Mrr82]

Couple=2, few=3 or more. Several.. Usually means more than a few.

Q: How many shutdowns did you have, a few?
A: More like several.

Either way, it's more than a couple.

Couple means 2 or 3 in that context.

 

[Zaxxon]

Small weekend update on Tesla's cash flow: I just placed my Model 3 order.

 

[Reciprocity]

Couple means 2 or 3 in that context.

Really.. since when. When you are a couple.. It's you and your girlfriend or boyfriend. I'm not going to judge. But if a couple is now defined as 3, I'm going to get a girlfriend to go with my wife and say that you said it was cool because we are a couple.

 

[Mrr82]

Really.. since when. When you are a couple.. It's you and your girlfriend or boyfriend. I'm not going to judge. But if a couple is now defined as 3, I'm going to get a girlfriend to go with my wife and say that you said it was cool because we are a couple.

Since forever. You’re using the term differently. A couple as in 2 people in a relationship and a couple of something are not the same thing. Almost every dictionary defines it as “An indefinite small number” which in other places is defined as 2 or 3. When you say a couple hundred, you don’t mean 200, otherwise you’d just write that.

 

[Reciprocity]

Since forever. You’re using the term differently. A couple as in 2 people in a relationship and a couple of something are not the same thing. Almost every dictionary defines it as “An indefinite small number” which in other places is defined as 2 or 3. When you say a couple hundred, you don’t mean 200, otherwise you’d just write that.

So your saying I can have a girlfriend?

Then what is a few.. and more importantly to this conversation, which is several.

 

[avoigt]

Discussion:

Reading the news there is a wide consensus in the media that Tesla will raise capital this year despite their very clear statement that they won‘t need to. This is repeated and repeated as the new or old FUD narrative.

I did read a couple of attempts to explain why but nothing I could call has substance.

Market Makets seems to have a different view otherwise we would not have seen that fast recovery last week.

However I am Interested in opinions for and against this case. Some of you have made calculations which may have been adjusted based on the last S3X numbers.

 

[Drumheller]

If Tesla does a capital raise in order to build out more gigafactories, more factories, and/or the Model Y, I think it will be fine for stock price.

If Tesla does a capital raise to support the Model 3 ramp again, that might not be received well.

/my opinion, thoughts.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Discussion:

Reading the news there is a wide consensus in the media that Tesla will raise capital this year despite their very clear statement that they won‘t need to.

They’re both right.

Tesla will not be required to raise capital. If the SP were to stay beaten down under $250, they could slow future expansion, continue ramping the Model 3, and eventually fund future expansion out of the positive cash flow that should come within the next year (hopefully, Q3).

But they will raise capital. The ramp will continue, the SP will rise, they will show positive cash flow, and they’ll raise capital under favorable conditions.