General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

I have no beef with @schonelucht or the interpretation of data. I was viewing their post as referencing the additional 2.9k of registrations specifically in the post they quoted. I see now that it could also have been in reference to the 29k total registration number which changes the meaning of the post entirely. That being the additional registrations/ registration count has lost useful significance given the highest VIN reported being half the highest registered VIN. (I personally think the registered VIN increase is meaningful, though possibly phase shifted).

I do disagree with the registration to hide production rate concept though. With everyone posting configured and in the wild VINs, the only gain would be by purposely skipping VIN to make things look faster than they are, which they have no need to do.

I agree that the new batches of registrations this last 2 days should not be taken too seriously without invitation/assignment/delivery data to corroborate. I also think we shouldn't immediately suspect nefarious motive in these registration, just because the registered VINs seem surprisingly high, for exactly the same reason, there is no other data to suggest one way or the other yet.

 

[Curt Renz]

Fox Business Network - today:

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I do disagree with the registration to hide production rate concept though. With everyone posting configured and in the wild VINs, the only gain would be by purposely skipping VIN to make things look faster than they are, which they have no need to do.

Disagree here. Tesla isn't gaming the VINS to inflate the delivery numbers. They're doing it to discourage VIN counting. Something that caused quite a few headaches with the model S, and I'm sure will cause issues with the model 3 in two years. But if they make VIN randomization a regular part of business, then we're no worse off than with no VIN's.

 

[geneclean55]

You haven't looked at the data, have you? Or are you new to it?
No point in arguing with an expert opinion without putting effort in to understand what is data telling you.
@schoneluch is the wrong person to argue with if you don't go and do some serious homework first. He comes with well formed and data based conclusions, doing his homework, so he isn't going to make a trivial mistake of overlooking simple explanations that you can correct without looking at details.

Speaking of experts, I noticed you didn't respond to my comment on how lagging data entries can skew our opinion of VIN assignment data. Such as the 102 VINs assigned as of April1st, which lead you to believe at the time, that production would not surpass 2000 per week. And yet since your post we are now at 116 VIN assignments (and probably still rising) for that same week

 

[generalenthu]

I agree that the new batches of registrations this last 2 days should not be taken too seriously without invitation/assignment/delivery data to corroborate. I also think we shouldn't immediately suspect nefarious motive in these registration, just because the registered VINs seem surprisingly high, for exactly the same reason, there is no other data to suggest one way or the other yet.

I got my invite in the last one hour. First day line waiter in Virginia.

 

[ls7corvete]

I got my invite in the last one hour. First day line waiter in Virginia.

Got mine today, First day in store, Florida.

This does not feel like a coincidence.

 

[HG Wells]

VIN assigned today. 176**


Non owner line waiter 3/31
Invited on 2/22
Ordered on 3/24
VIN assigned 4/6
MSM LR PUP EAP 19" sport wheels
CA

Assigned VIN in the mid 17000's !!!!!
YEA

 

[Reciprocity]

Assigned VIN in the mid 17000's !!!!!
YEA

Last week we saw the first 15xxx, so it makes sense that we would see the first 17xxx the week. Maybe the first 20xxx next week? One can dream.

 

[Starno]

Last week we saw the first 15xxx, so it makes sense that we would see the first 17xxx the week. Maybe the first 20xxx next week? One can dream.

Btw this is a reported. Most don't report. I think there's some chance someone out there already got an 18XXX.

 

[madodel]

Got mine today, First day in store, Florida.

This does not feel like a coincidence.

As did I today but I received a message asking me to order 3 months ago but I elected then to wait for AWD. Did the same again. AWD is now showing as Mid 2018 so it is getting close.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla Semi secures large order of 50 electric trucks from a truck renting and leasing company

 

[MacRocket]

Does anyone know or can we find out if any of the recent VIN registrations are for AWD.
Thank you in advance

 

[sundaymorning]

Why I traded my Chevy Bolt EV for a Tesla: one reader's story

We’ll likely get more of these stories as M3 ramps up.

 

[sundaymorning]

Looks like more large scale potential TE projects:

Armenia looks to Tesla battery while Italy’s grid operator talks up collaboration

Armenia negotiates with Elon Musk’s Tesla for energy storage battery project

 

[MP3Mike]

Does anyone know or can we find out if any of the recent VIN registrations are for AWD.
Thank you in advance

From the guy tracking the VINs: Model 3 VINs on Twitter

Model 3 VINs‏ @Model3VINs 8h8 hours ago
I checked every 50th VIN in this batch (as I always do after a new set of VINs) and didn't find any dual-motors. This does not guarantee that they aren’t sprinkled throughout in small numbers, but it gives us confidence that we're not missing a large chunk of them.

 

[bambam4171]

There is potentially another twist to the additional VIN's. As we all know Tesla produces in batches. For example they produce 1000 Black M3 with Aero wheels, then 1000 Black M3 with the bigger rims, then 1000 red M3 with ... you get the picture.

What if they are ready to produce something different now. Say non PUP, or SR, or Metal roof. You name it, just some new option they did not produce so far. Then they of course would need new VINs even if they are still producing at the same pace, just because they have more options.

 

[Intl Professor]

OT but the Space X thread appears moribund since 2013.

Some here may be interested in a recent piece by Cringely which has a good background summary and survey of competition.

The space race is over and SpaceX won - I, Cringely

Best.

 

[NicoV]

Btw this is a reported. Most don't report. I think there's some chance someone out there already got an 18XXX.

There is already one at 18K in the spreadsheet. When I look at the VIN graph I see a stepwise change every week or so. Today I see a new step to 18K, 4 days after the step to 16K, and 7 days after the step to 15K. I interpret that as being at 3K/week and going up.

 

[schonelucht]

There is already one at 18K in the spreadsheet. When I look at the VIN graph I see a stepwise change every week or so. Today I see a new step to 18K, 4 days after the step to 16K, and 7 days after the step to 15K. I interpret that as being at 3K/week and going up.

Guys and girls. Stop for a moment. There is no need to speculate. We KNOW the production rate. Tesla TOLD US 4 days ago.

In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles

This is in official investor communications. That's as official as it gets.
You really want to argue that Tesla is intentionally lying in investor reports? Really? Have fun joining the bunch of shorts who claim exactly the same. It's stupid and it's nonsense.

The current rate, these 7 days, is 2000/week give or take a few dozen. Not 3000. Not 1500. Not anything else. 2000. Say it after me. 2000/week. Then afterwards feel free to argue why you think next week is going to be 3000/week. But don't claim this week is 3000.

Btw. Thanks @Zhelko Dimic for the kind words. I really appreciate it.

 

[Reciprocity]

Guys and girls. Stop for a moment. There is no need to speculate. We KNOW the production rate. Tesla TOLD US 4 days ago.



This is in official investor communications. That's as official as it gets.
You really want to argue that Tesla is intentionally lying in investor reports? Really? Have fun joining the bunch of shorts who claim exactly the same. It's stupid and it's nonsense.

The current rate, these 7 days, is 2000/week give or take a few dozen. Not 3000. Not 1500. Not anything else. 2000. Say it after me. 2000/week. Then afterwards feel free to argue why you think next week is going to be 3000/week. But don't claim this week is 3000.

Btw. Thanks @Zhelko Dimic for the kind words. I really appreciate it.

Not lying if they believed it to be true at the moment they published it. What you are saying is that Tesla would never purposely be ambiguous.. or that Tesla is finally being consecutive and accurate with estimations just because it's in an 8k. You could be right and wrong at the same time just based on the moments before and days after the release of the 8k. It could be as simple as a software update that fixed a speed bump on one of the manufacturing steps that slowed the entire process. They could have turned on the grohmamn machine and the shake down period ended the day after the 8k with on issues instead of the anticipation at the time of the 8k that it would take longer to have it start contributing. Days vs weeks could explain what appears to an escalation in VIN registrations, assignments and invites. It could all be smoke and mirrors. The only reason I could think that it would be subterfuge is if Tesla is trying to pump the stock for a capital raise. That would be something that the sec would frown on much more then under estimating production. Also, Tesla might already have issues with the sec over being to aggressive with estimates and not delivering.

I don't know why we all the sudden trust Tesla what the ramp is at 2000/w and not higher when it's clear we can't believe them when that say 2.5k/w and 5k/w and miss the first 3 quarters in a row. We will see about the second.

Going back less then a month, Tesla had registered about 18,000 vin's. I get that VIN registrations aren't a true measure of anything but that is at a pace of well North of 3000/w. We know they didn't hit 2000/w until the last week of last month and should have produced another 2k from the 1st to today. That leaves a huge excess of VINs and a every quickening pace of registrations. We can assume Tesla is gaming us at the risk of poking the sec that already has issues with Tesla's production promises, or we can assume Tesla anticipates a sizable step up in production very soon. More deliveries should help tell the final part of this story. It's going to be hard to miss 3k/w. Tesla is also going to run out is people who want first production cars in North America sooner then later.

Lastly there is also a theory thanks Tesla is trying to shift some is deliveries to outside the US for tax credit advantages. They will need AWD an potentially the smaller battery to accomplish this. We might even see the P version sooner then expected as they found them testing a model 3 with dual motor, air suspension and huge red breaker callipers at a race track.