General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mrr82]

So your saying I can have a girlfriend?

Then what is a few.. and more importantly to this conversation, which is several.

No GF for you . That’s the formal usage of the noun.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla Powerwall is chosen for a virtual power plant in Lebanon, but Sunrun wants in

TE projects are popping up everywhere around the globe.

 

[AudubonB]

Weekend Moderator:

If a certain number of you keep punching each other, I'm going to take away the punch bowl.

 

[JRP3]

Reading the news there is a wide consensus in the media that Tesla will raise capital this year despite their very clear statement that they won‘t need to.

They don't need to but they might want to in order to speed things up.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

First report of a VIN in the 14xxx. VIN progression, registration algorithm & other VIN-related exchanges

It is a second hand report but there are also a bunch of 13xxx reported this morning so it seems credible. Be nice to see some more 14xxx and 15xxx to confirm.

This is from the March 20 batch of VIN registrations, so lag time between registration and first report continues to drop (from 15 days for March 2 batch to 11 days for March 10 batch to 10 days for March 20 batch). I don't think it can go down much from here.

In any case, another indication of a solid ramp.

Edit: I see @geneclean55 and @j0hn beat me to the punch!

Thoughts on why the declining trend you noted didn't hold up in the last batch?

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Powerwall is chosen for a virtual power plant in Lebanon, but Sunrun wants in

TE projects are popping up everywhere around the globe.

Maybe they should put Lebanon,New Hampshire in the headline.

 

[JRP3]

At least NH.

 

[ggr]

Color isn't in VIN. Are you sure there is no vin on chassis prior to paint?

Sorry, I don't understand your question. You're right, the color isn't in the VIN, that's pretty much what I was saying. I have no idea when the VIN gets assigned, but I believe it is well before it is painted, since it is also stamped on the frame.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Sorry, I don't understand your question. You're right, the color isn't in the VIN, that's pretty much what I was saying. I have no idea when the VIN gets assigned, but I believe it is well before it is painted, since it is also stamped on the frame.

I think the VIN is assigned for a car at the beginning of production, or at the latest when the VIN gets stamped onto the body. I suspect the factory will track parts going into each car using its VIN.

I think the car is assigned to a customer after production is complete, or nearly complete. At the earliest after the car has gone through the paint shop, so the VIN/color combination is finalized.

 

[sundaymorning]

This is pretty awesome! Watch the video, from a Musk fan.

Tesla fan makes 3D Elon Musk tribute video, and it's pretty darn awesome

 

[Waiting4M3]

Thoughts on why the declining trend you noted didn't hold up in the last batch?

14 days is not a big departure from 10-11 days. Not all VINs are reported on Troy's sheet. Could be just random fluctuation.

 

[dc_h]

I think the VIN is assigned for a car at the beginning of production, or at the latest when the VIN gets stamped onto the body. I suspect the factory will track parts going into each car using its VIN.

I think the car is assigned to a customer after production is complete, or nearly complete. At the earliest after the car has gone through the paint shop, so the VIN/color combination is finalized.

This started with me wondering if they would batch colors in bigger vin batches. The trend was 200 consecutive vin’s for each color. That coincided, approximately with daily production. I thought they might have bigger vin batches if they started doing batches of colors. May not be an issue, just a thought.

 

[Waiting4M3]

This started with me wondering if they would batch colors in bigger vin batches. The trend was 200 consecutive vin’s for each color. That coincided, approximately with daily production. I thought they might have bigger vin batches if they started doing batches of colors. May not be an issue, just a thought.

Interesting thought, same as most things related to Model 3 production, we will know in ~ 2 weeks as that seems to be the time it takes for VINs from registered to assigned to customers.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Time trend of NHTSA VIN registration vs highest VIN reported in Troy's sheet. It looks to me the Mar30 batch from ~18.5K to 20.5K is needed right around now, and probably wouldn't have lasted much past next week if at all. Even with this, the ~8K registration in the recent 2 days span still looks excessive.

Tesla trying to break VIN counting could be a possible hypothesis. Another possibility is that when Tesla receives parts they assign them to car VINs in order to track them in their automatic storage system. Maybe they just received a large shipment of parts.

 

[stef]

Time trend of NHTSA VIN registration vs highest VIN reported in Troy's sheet. It looks to me the Mar30 batch from ~18.5K to 20.5K is needed right around now, and probably wouldn't have lasted much past next week if at all. Even with this, the ~8K registration in the recent 2 days span still looks excessive.

Tesla trying to break VIN counting could be a possible hypothesis. Another possibility is that when Tesla receives parts they assign them to car VINs in order to track them in their automatic storage system. Maybe they just received a large shipment of parts.

View attachment 292493

I am not convinced they are trying to brake the counting, if the ramp is progressing well it will make little difference in the future. I mean, it would have made more sense to do it at the beginning of the ramp, going forward few thousands extra VINS will be essentially “noise” (2/3 weeks production?).
Unless they register say 30-50k VIN ...
I would guess they must need those VINS early in the process.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I am not convinced they are trying to brake the counting, if the ramp is progressing well it will make little difference in the future. I mean, it would have made more sense to do it at the beginning of the ramp, going forward few thousands extra VINS will be essentially “noise” (2/3 weeks production?).
Unless they register say 30-50k VIN ...
I would guess they must need those VINS early in the process.

That's what I'm leaning towards as well in my hypothesis #2: when Tesla receives parts they assign them to car VINs in order to track them in their automatic storage system. Maybe they just received a large shipment of parts.

 

[mongo]

Time trend of NHTSA VIN registration vs highest VIN reported in Troy's sheet. It looks to me the Mar30 batch from ~18.5K to 20.5K is needed right around now, and probably wouldn't have lasted much past next week if at all. Even with this, the ~8K registration in the recent 2 days span still looks excessive.

Tesla trying to break VIN counting could be a possible hypothesis. Another possibility is that when Tesla receives parts they assign them to car VINs in order to track them in their automatic storage system. Maybe they just received a large shipment of parts.

View attachment 292493

Nice graph!
Looks like they run about a 2 week delay from registration to assignment. Assignment to delivery is about 6-10 days (median). That is not much stock on hand if it is tied to part delivery. I'm guessing it may be tied to the dash subassembly process when the VIN tag gets riveted on.

Next week should see assignments in the 20k range if this pattern holds. If we/ they are really lucky, the week after would bump to 25k.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

This may be the week that Tesla makes 2500 cars. Right now, simple proportion from VIN assignments calculates to 2350 (135:116=x:2020), but the day is not done, and there is always delay of information. Of course you can't relay on VIN assignments for precise information, but knowing that 2500 is the goal, and seeing good numbers, isn't this something Elon may mention tomorrow, if they actually managed it? Just a theory, but wouldn't that be nice...
Elon did say:
“If things go as planned today, we will comfortably exceed that number(2000... sic) over a seven day period!” as per that email on March 31st.

More importantly though, pace didn't slow down first week in the new quarter, so I feel the worst is behind us

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Speaking of experts, I noticed you didn't respond to my comment on how lagging data entries can skew our opinion of VIN assignment data. Such as the 102 VINs assigned as of April1st, which lead you to believe at the time, that production would not surpass 2000 per week. And yet since your post we are now at 116 VIN assignments (and probably still rising) for that same week

I agree with you on the effect of data lagging, and I've commented elsewhere that I've taken that into factor.
Now, this forum is not my daily job, so I'm not sure if comment was made in the same post that you're referring to, and if my contribution makes sense being read in isolation, i.e. if EVERY comment has all disclaimers it needs .

But in the end, the reason I didn't comment is that I mostly agree, and it aligns with my thinking...I thought I liked your comment? Anyhow, I do throw an awful lots of 'may', 'might', 'theory' etc, so I'm guessing comment was safeguarded that way.
And I was expecting 1200-2000... Pleasantly surprised with 2020, but for all intents and purposes that is 2000.

 

[Reciprocity]

No GF for you . That’s the formal usage of the noun.

View attachment 292454

Shoot, I already asked a girl out thinking it was cool. Wth. You guys gotta be quicker with this stuff.