pz1975
Active Member
I heard your wife has a boyfriend now though.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Finally. Makes it much cheaper in the divorce.
Ok. Here are the next steps:
1. Elon will hear of this video
2. Elon will watch this video
3. Elon will realize that of course the only way to exit the BFR on its maiden voyage is to bomb out of there in a Tesla vehicle.
4. Elon will make sure the Tesla truck is designed to be Mars-capable.
5. The Starman stunt will seem like amateur hour in terms of free TESLA advertising.
6. Stock price bumps 15% the next day, vesting the 300 billion dollar tier in his new package.
7. Well all get a little richer because we´re all obviously still holding TSLA.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Elon have a history of publicly stating that they don't need money, but went ahead and raised money a couple months later.
In the past, the exuse to raise has been funds for a new model or some new initiative. But in reality, god knows where those funds are spent. A bicycle manufacturer I know have raised money for a factory on the western part of China to lower labor cost, but is actually using it to hide a huge accounting hole of their factory #1. Stock soared and disaster averted. No one is the wiser.
So I would lean more towards the street and analysts on this one. But you know what? This forum jave been able to call the capital raiae more accurately than anyone. Almost as if Elon is listening....
sundaymorning
Active Member
With China/macros looming in the distant and on investor’s minds, it might be prudent to raise one at the end of the month anyway, or right after announcing 2,500/ week when the SP is up. We don’t need much, just a tiny one to give Tesla a comfortable pad. If things are much better than anticipated, then maybe wait till we’re at ATH. It’s up to Elon’s gut, he knows best.
Edit: in the past Elon has alluded that Tesla is working on many projects that we don’t know about, which explains why we needed to raise. No one saw the semi/Roadster, “D”, “ludicrous”, powerwall/pack, solar roof, acquisition of Grohmann coming. Explains why we needed to raise. R&D is expensive, that’s why we’re not just going to hand them over to China. I’d rather pay the 25\50% tariff initially, or until the market gets saturated then maybe enter. Look towards Europe, Elon. Dip your toes into a small factory producing 200,000-300,000 M3 is good enough. Then we’ll see what the Y can do.
The “hole” we’re trying to fill is R&D and aggressive expansion. We’re not making bicycles here (nothing offensive, just trying to flip your analogy towards another angle), IP items mentioned above are expensive as heck to develop. Additionally, Elon isn’t satisfied yet, his appetite for further domination of the EV market and enhancing user experience won’t stop for awhile. This is why so many legacy autos are putting off their EV future, they don’t want to research like Tesla, their shareholders will just sell and buy stocks here instead. Better for them to continue building ICE, it’s a safer move.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
sundaymorning
Active Member
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
We need to achieve 5k/week with Model 3 before adding complexity that would inhibit production ramp.
“So probably July” for AWD. This indicates to me that 5k/week appears to be a goal that is within reach, as far as being at least somewhere in July. Elon has stated during CC that if we give him 2 weeks, the ramp would look very different. So two weeks end of June would be mid July. Once they reach 5k/week, then AWD could be either be produce on the next line or the current one. I interpret this as pretty awesome news in regards to 5k/week. Yet another drop of a hint that things are moving along well.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I think I just heard ~25k Canadians deciding to delay their Model 3 order 3 months.
Remember, whenever Elon gives estimates:
"Probably 3 months, 6 months at the latest"
But if I were Elon I would be wanting to ramp up to AWD pretty fast because there's a LOT of people out there who have deferred waiting for that to happen.
"Probably 3 months, 6 months at the latest"
But if I were Elon I would be wanting to ramp up to AWD pretty fast because there's a LOT of people out there who have deferred waiting for that to happen.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
zmarty
Member
I dreaded the day I would watch "Who Killed the Electric Car?". That day was today and it made me very mad. GM and the other fossil companies can go screw themselves. I am proud to be a Tesla shareholder and I hope for my childrens' sake that they succeed. Once we get the Model 3 we will replace a Corolla and we will be a 100% EV household (we also have a Leaf).
If you have not watched this great documentary yet, you can view it for free here: Who Killed The Electric Car? (123) : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive
If you have not watched this great documentary yet, you can view it for free here: Who Killed The Electric Car? (123) : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive
I had an idea regarding the sudden increase in VIN registrations with NHTSA: What if they had removed all *known* bottlenecks in production (i.e. most prominently battery module integration) for now and want to prepare for the (unlikely) case that no other bottlenecks show up until much higher in the ramp?
How odd of Bloomberg My screen shot taken now shows 2313.
Is this updated in real time or just daily?
UK based so time change differentials ?
Tesla Model 3 Tracker
We built our own model to estimate weekly output of the car that could make or break Elon Musk's master plan.
14,029
Total cars
2,313
Per week
Latest Updates ↓
By Tom Randall and Dean Halford
Updated at: April 08, 2018
Tesla has accomplished something no other automaker can claim: It's made a relatively affordable electric car, the Model 3, that hundreds of thousands of people are lining up to buy. The only problem is that Elon Musk and company can’t produce enough of them.
Sluggish output since the Model 3 launch in July 2017 has frustrated fans and confounded Wall Street. That’s why Bloomberg built its own tool to estimate the number of Model 3s rolling out of the factory in Fremont, California. This projection relies on Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs), unique strings of digits displayed on every new car sold in the U.S.
Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 14,029 Model 3s so far, and is now building approximately 2,313 a week. Those figures, and the charts below, represent Bloomberg’s latest estimates and will automatically update to reflect changes in the data.
Total Model 3
Is this updated in real time or just daily?
UK based so time change differentials ?
Tesla Model 3 Tracker
We built our own model to estimate weekly output of the car that could make or break Elon Musk's master plan.
14,029
Total cars
2,313
Per week
Latest Updates ↓
By Tom Randall and Dean Halford
Updated at: April 08, 2018
Tesla has accomplished something no other automaker can claim: It's made a relatively affordable electric car, the Model 3, that hundreds of thousands of people are lining up to buy. The only problem is that Elon Musk and company can’t produce enough of them.
Sluggish output since the Model 3 launch in July 2017 has frustrated fans and confounded Wall Street. That’s why Bloomberg built its own tool to estimate the number of Model 3s rolling out of the factory in Fremont, California. This projection relies on Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs), unique strings of digits displayed on every new car sold in the U.S.
Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 14,029 Model 3s so far, and is now building approximately 2,313 a week. Those figures, and the charts below, represent Bloomberg’s latest estimates and will automatically update to reflect changes in the data.
Total Model 3
Yes, time zones change the numbers. Might be using local time for the groupings (days) instead of a fixed reference.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
....but wait! There is a sequel! by the same documentary Producer. It is an absolute must view for all TMCers.
Revenge of the Electrical Car:
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Words of HABIT
Active Member
Not me. I configured, and there are many thousands more like me in Canada.
I went to Yorkdale Mall, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, yesterday to see the only M3 in Ontario (and finally sit in one). Absolutely blown away, I like it much better than the MS and MX. Tesla has done a fantastic job making a small car feel big inside. It appears much roomier than the MS/MX (and my current ride: Honda Pilot). Love the minimalist architecture. The glass roof is awesome. The Jetsons spaceship, that's it. A lot of excitement and anticipation in the store by customers, like kids in a candy store. My friends are already begging me to take them on test drives and mine is still "6 to 8 weeks" away. Tesla will sell millions of these vehicles.
A potential customer asked one of the sales reps how long the wait is for an M3 without a current reservation. The sales rep replied 18 months. Glad the production ramp up has begun to satisfy this need.
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Got my invite yesterday too. Non Tesla owner waited in line on 3/31.
Wife trying to convince me to get x. Now confused. Are these upgrade conversations happening in other families as well?
One explanation is that Tesla started registering VINs at a much faster rate, so the time between VIN registration and first reported use increased.
Tesla's VIN registrations in that time period were:
March 20: 2042 new VINs (up to 15885) First report March 30 (10 days later)
March 23: 2655 new VINs (up to 18540) First report April 6 (14 days later)
The first report of the March 20 batch that I saw was March 30. This was in the middle of the week Tesla reported producing 2020 vehicles.
Since there were 2042 vehicles in that batch it would have taken Tesla 7 days to use up that range, but there was only a 3 day gap between registrations (March 20-23). This would leave an extra 4 days for the cars in that batch to be produced before Tesla needed the next batch of VINs -- 10+4=14, which is exactly the amount of time it took for the first report from that batch.
So one plausible explanation (not the only one -- it could be random variation or other things) is that before March 20 Tesla's production outpaced VIN registration, so the time from registration to first VIN assignment decreased. Since then, Tesla has increased production but increased VIN registration rate even more, so we are starting to see the time lag from VIN registration to production increase. Since about ~10K VINs have been registered in the two weeks since March 23 I would expect that trend to continue, unless Tesla changes the way it assigns VINs, which it could do at any time.
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