General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SarahsDad]

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/

Not super encouraging on the margins front. Detailed breakdown shows relatively high component costs on the model 3.

Tesla has responded to the Munro M3 teardown criticisms regarding the frame being "too heavy' here (at end of article): Tesla Model 3 Teardown: Deconstructed 3 - Motor Trend

"The safety of our customers is more important than any... metric.”

Touche'

 

[K_Dizzle]

Ford Beats Expectations And Slashes U.S. Car Lineup To Just Two Models

Well the model 3 has a few less competitors in North America.

 

[dc_h]

One of the few bears I'll feel badly for Bear dead after colliding with Tesla electric car on I-5 in Oregon

Lets hope theirs a few thousand more by the end of q2.

 

[dc_h]

Okay, I went back and reviewed my bills for maintenance of my fossil cars, and I guess the Model X isn't that much more expensive. It's pretty much comparable. But those were out-of-warranty cars that needed something done every year. Roughly 1000 USD/year for Tesla to do some minor maintenance on the Model X seems like quite poor value for money. I know service on other EVs costs like a third.

Looking at the service plans - I see changing the oil on the drive units has been removed - when did that happen? But the price is unchanged. Now the first service is *really* poor value for money. They charge 830 USD for two key fob batteries, windshield wipers, checking the wheel alignment and an inspection...

I can bring change your batteries and wipers for 800, can’t do the alignment. I’ll fly in from Chicago for no charge. Fee only applies June through September in Norway.

 

[RobStark]

looking closely at that cover, it seems like they are only reporting on their Model 3 "first drive," not releasing their road test or overall score for the car in this issue. is that correct?

I misremembered. They gave it a significantly above average owner satisfaction but no road test score. Their survey results come in the fall so I don't know how the measured owner satisfaction.

 

[dc_h]

I can't stomach the articles so I would imagine listening would be that much worse. You deserve an award!

I’m holding out for mp4. Got to see who the mystery man really is.

 

[Reciprocity]

/snark on
Apparently he missed the part where they eliminated the instrument cluster, 90+% of the switches and their associated wire harnesses plus knocked the body control modules count down and eliminated the standard fuse box. Must also be making some interesting assumptions regarding the cost of the pack and motor (plus PCB costs). Also glossing over the fact that the 35k version has less cells and a reduced content interior.

Also, what did they use for battery pack costs? It's not like they could know that aside from estimating based on materials and and some pretty big assumptions about how they are made. My guess is that they over estimate the pack cost and that's the most expensive part of the car. As much as Sandy appears to hate robots, I'm sure they are over estimating the labor portion. Lastly, Tesla is more verticaly integrated than other manufactures, so they must be making a lot of assumptions about parts made in house and what those would cost of they were out sourced.

 

[JRP3]

You are a better man. I didn’t make it 9 minutes until I could no longer stand the God complex.

I downloaded it and sped it up I probably missed some subtle gem by doing so

 

[JRP3]

Lets hope theirs a few thousand more by the end of q2.

Not that type of bear

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

He did a good job of presenting the bear thesis. A lot of what he said deserves thoughtful consideration.

Such as? I was listening for meaningful details & found very little. I hope you can help. Also, do you find bears to be less fervent than bulls? I think there’s too much fervor on each side, but there seems to be more of it among bears. But maybe I’m biased...

 

[sdtslafan]

So what does it mean that we keep hitting 277-278 on the low side and 285-286 on the high side and bounce back and forth? Is there some technical significance to all this or are we just going nowhere fast? Any idea which way we are likely to break through or do we have to wait for earnings to decide?

I predict we go down because that's just how things have been going for me/

 

[RobStark]

IMHO, his most significant point was that the bulls have an almost religious fervor (he must be reading this board...).

The Jihadist said to the Crusader.

 

[Waiting4M3]

So what does it mean that we keep hitting 277-278 on the low side and 285-286 on the high side and bounce back and forth? Is there some technical significance to all this or are we just going nowhere fast? Any idea which way we are likely to break through or do we have to wait for earnings to decide?

I predict we go down because that's just how things have been going for me/

Option_Sniper on Twitter
"$tsla only one level you need to keep in mind - that's $284. why? that's 50% retrace on monthly chart. that's also cloud bottom on weekly chart. it's therefore THE line of defense this week (and next Monday when April officially concludes)"

 

[JRP3]

The Jihadist said to the Crusader.

Indeed. Though some here get carried away with enthusiasm on occasion it is nothing compared to the rabid religious fervor constantly expressed by the bears on SA and Twitter. They have elevated Elon to the status of Lucifer and longs as his deluded minions.

 

[sdtslafan]

FB up 7% post earnings.

 

[Menifeer]

Such as? I was listening for meaningful details & found very little. I hope you can help. Also, do you find bears to be less fervent than bulls? I think there’s too much fervor on each side, but there seems to be more of it among bears. But maybe I’m biased...

For a couple examples, the finances and Model 3 margins.

Margins were supposed to be high due to "machines building the machine". Elon has now backed away from that prediction and is hiring more people to do the work (the way the rest of the auto industry works). The resulting reduced margins may not provide the cash needed to pay debts and build GigaFactories, MY/Semi/Roadster production facilities, SuperChargers & Service Centers. People who have dismantled the car don't see a way to make a $35k version at a profit. That also means the loaded-up versions won't be as profitable as originally thought.

I doubt that even the most ardent bull believes the current valuation is realistic. It's based on what is expected for the future, and that future now looks less rosy.

BTW, I'm not a bear. I have lots of 2020 Call LEAPS that I hope will be fruitful (but I'm hedging my bet by selling short-term calls against those positions).

Yes, it works both ways - the bears are also very fervent (maybe moreso).

 

[22522]

For a couple examples, the finances and Model 3 margins.

Margins were supposed to be high due to "machines building the machine". Elon has now backed away from that prediction and is hiring more people to do the work (the way the rest of the auto industry works). The resulting reduced margins may not provide the cash needed to pay debts and build GigaFactories, MY/Semi/Roadster production facilities, SuperChargers & Service Centers. People who have dismantled the car don't see a way to make a $35k version at a profit. That also means the loaded-up versions won't be as profitable as originally thought.

I doubt that even the most ardent bull believes the current valuation is realistic. It's based on what is expected for the future, and that future now looks less rosy.

BTW, I'm not a bear. I have lots of 2020 Call LEAPS that I hope will be fruitful (but I'm hedging my bet by selling short-term calls against those positions).

Yes, it works both ways - the bears are also very fervent (maybe moreso).

Migration to machines will still happen.

 

[Waiting4M3]

...
Margins were supposed to be high due to "machines building the machine". Elon has now backed away from that prediction and is hiring more people to do the work (the way the rest of the auto industry works). The resulting reduced margins may not provide the cash needed .....

I doubt that even the most ardent bull believes the current valuation is realistic. It's based on what is expected for the future, and that future now looks less rosy.
...

How much less rosy? My back of the envelope math shows that hiring 400 people/wk * several wks = 3000 people @ $100k/yr = ~2.5% of gross margin on M3 in the worst case scenario. And this is assuming that all of these 3000 people are unplanned hire due to difficulty in automating the parts conveyor. I personally think that most of them are hired because battery module supply is finally high enough for them to justify this additional shift. It's always been planned. Also if the cash won't be enough, why would Elon say in the same letter that they will be profitable in Q3/Q4? I'm not going to take shorts words on this over Elon's, never in a million years.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I doubt that even the most ardent bull believes the current valuation is realistic.

Agreed, current valuation is not realistic. It is too low.

 

[SPadival]

I’m holding out for mp4. Got to see who the mystery man really is.

Nothing mysterious about him. I outed Hannah Montana septic ages ago. See the guy in the reflection - on the "Chase Private Client" sign.

PS: It was disappointing to have my mental image of a rugged and rustic Montana cowboy destroyed by this image of HMS carrying a man bag.