General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Big Earl]

Replacing the brake fluid every two years seems obscene to me when EVs use the brakes a lot less. My last ICE car recommended changing the brake fluid every 7 years.

I didn't realize the battery coolant needed changing this often.

There isn't an independent Tesla Autohaus in Oslo yet?

Brake usage has little to due with brake fluid life and more to do with the design of the system.

Brake fluid is hydroscopic and will absorb moisture from the air. That moisture contamination must be dealt with via regular fluid changes. Some vehicles have (mostly) sealed fluid reservoirs will others have vented reservoirs that can allow moisture to get in.

Two years is a common interval on modern cars, although many people ignore it.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Replacing the brake fluid every two years seems obscene to me when EVs use the brakes a lot less. My last ICE car recommended changing the brake fluid every 7 years.*

I didn't realize the battery coolant needed changing this often.

There isn't an independent Tesla Autohaus in Oslo yet?

* Brakes are supplied by Brembo. Anybody can replace the brake fluid.

I may investigate other options for the second service. There's no rush, in any case. I won't be needing the next service until around Q4.

 

[RobStark]

Brake usage has little to due with brake fluid life and more to do with the design of the system.

Brake fluid is hydroscopic and will absorb moisture from the air. That moisture contamination must be dealt with via regular fluid changes. Some vehicles have (mostly) sealed fluid reservoirs will others have vented reservoirs that can allow moisture to get in.

Two years is a common interval on modern cars, although many people ignore it.

Then we should have extremely common brake failures.

Doesn't seem to be an epidemic. I don't know anybody who changes their brake fluid every two years, although some may have it changed at the dealer without them knowing.

Maybe because Los Angeles has a dry climate?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Then we should have extremely common brake failures.

Doesn't seem to be an epidemic. I don't know anybody who changes their brake fluid every two years, although some may have it changed at the dealer without them knowing.

Maybe because Los Angeles has a dry climate?

I heard from a guy at work who used to work at a dealership that it's common to simply check the brake fluid quality and if it's still good, not change it. So, I'm sure it's not like it's definitely bad after two years.

 

[dandurston]

I don't know anybody who changes their brake fluid every two years, although some may have it changed at the dealer without them knowing.

I've never changed the brake fluid ever, in any of my cars, over 18 years of driving. Did it on the mountain bike once.

 

[schonelucht]

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/

Not super encouraging on the margins front. Detailed breakdown shows relatively high component costs on the model 3.

As we go to press, Munro’s final cost analysis is still a few weeks away, but preliminary analysis suggests the high-content variants being pushed now might indeed break even or make a slim profit. But the standard-battery model starts at $36,000. Can enough money be saved on base models to make them profitable? “There’s nothing here that says ‘save money,’” Munro says. “I think $36,000 Model 3s will be rare as hen’s teeth. I don’t see how they could make money at $36,000.”

 

[j0hn]

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/

Not super encouraging on the margins front. Detailed breakdown shows relatively high component costs on the model 3.

but are they accounting for (software) options like autopilot and FSD ?

 

[mongo]

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/

Not super encouraging on the margins front. Detailed breakdown shows relatively high component costs on the model 3.

/snark on
Apparently he missed the part where they eliminated the instrument cluster, 90+% of the switches and their associated wire harnesses plus knocked the body control modules count down and eliminated the standard fuse box. Must also be making some interesting assumptions regarding the cost of the pack and motor (plus PCB costs). Also glossing over the fact that the 35k version has less cells and a reduced content interior.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

BP confesses ‘mistake’ in forecasting renewable energy growth

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

A deep dive into the mind of a bear, Montana Skeptic speaks: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com/mf/web/4kdds5/qtr_23.mp3

I made it through about 50 minutes before the BS was unbearable.

I can't stomach the articles so I would imagine listening would be that much worse. You deserve an award!

 

[Krugerrand]

I made it through about 50 minutes before the BS was unbearable.

You are a better man. I didn’t make it 9 minutes until I could no longer stand the God complex.

 

[dhrivnak]

Two years is a common interval on modern cars, although many people ignore it.

I have owned 9 cars and have always put over 100,000 miles on them and owned for at least 8 years one now for 17 years. Never have I changed brake fluid or ever had a brake problem other than a pad replacement. And it was not listed under suggested maintenance.

 

[Dennisj00]

I watched the video of Mr. Munro and three other guys (not sure why they were there other to ask questions that generally weren’t answered). I got the impression that because the 3 wasn’t designed like he would have 30 years ago, it can’t be better and has to cost too much.

And he was blown away by the battery module and CPU - Which of course is several years (decades?) ahead of anything he’d seen!

Our M3 (3/28) has no ‘fit and finish’ problems - along with several others I’ve seen.

I hope he sells lots of his analysis for $70k!

 

[22522]

I have owned 9 cars and have always put over 100,000 miles on them and owned for at least 8 years one now for 17 years. Never have I changed brake fluid or ever had a brake problem other than a pad replacement. And it was not listed under suggested maintenance.

My cars, Honda and BMW, call for it every two or three years and I change it. I have experienced a brake line failure in a 1968 vintage car before this brake fluid change policy was followed to the letter.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

A deep dive into the mind of a bear, Montana Skeptic speaks: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com/mf/web/4kdds5/qtr_23.mp3

Wow, that was fascinating. He sounds very intelligent, but completely driven by his emotions— with his intelligence used in service of rationalizing his beliefs, rather than testing them. Of course, he looks like a very stable genius compared to Mark Spiegel, but there’s a whole lotta hubris, confirmation bias (even when he’s discussing confirmation bias), and conspiratorial thinking.

One thing: I wish the flaws in my own thinking were as clear to me as the flaws in his thinking are. We’re all human (except for the trolls), and we’re all subject to the same cognitive biases and shortcomings.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

You're unlikely to have any kind of sudden failure due to not changing the brake fluid.

What will usually happen is they slowly get less responsive (needing more pressure to stop the vehicle) and/or when used heavily (not a single hard stop but lots of hard stops / braking actions, for example going down a twisty road, or racing, or just overly aggressive driving in stop and go traffic) they will experience "fade" where they go from serviceable to less responsive and possibly to practically useless.

Of course the latter problem can happen normally under heavy usage, but brake fluid that has absorbed a lot of moisture will run into this problem faster as the water in the lines boils and creates bubbles in the hydraulic system.

For most drivers, they can go years and not notice an issue - in part because its a very slow, graceful degradation of performance.

But I can tell you from experience changing the fluid can make a big difference in braking performance, for aggressive / fun driving.

Tesla could probably engineer a solution with a longer time period for changing the fluid, but chose to go with a shorter interval for various reasons such as cost trade offs or ensuring the life of the braking components (since unlike most manufacturers, they want their vehicles to last well beyond the warranty period).

 

[ls7corvete]

I watched the video of Mr. Munro and three other guys (not sure why they were there other to ask questions that generally weren’t answered). I got the impression that because the 3 wasn’t designed like he would have 30 years ago, it can’t be better and has to cost too much.

And he was blown away by the battery module and CPU - Which of course is several years (decades?) ahead of anything he’d seen!

Our M3 (3/28) has no ‘fit and finish’ problems - along with several others I’ve seen.

I hope he sells lots of his analysis for $70k!

Lots of good information in that video and I am sure Munroe can provide good insight for body construction....But how can we put much weight in a man who does not even know the manufacturer of the control board. His advice sounded decades old regarding electronics, robotics, etc. The biggest area to reduce cost on the M3 is the electronics.

 

[SPadival]

I made it through about 50 minutes before the BS was unbearable.

He put in the disclaimer or what he terms "caution" early at around 7:20 minutes. That is a good tell that what follows will be BS.

 

[Menifeer]

Wow, that was fascinating. He sounds very intelligent, but completely driven by his emotions— with his intelligence used in service of rationalizing his beliefs, rather than testing them. Of course, he looks like a very stable genius compared to Mark Spiegel, but there’s a whole lotta hubris, confirmation bias (even when he’s discussing confirmation bias), and conspiratorial thinking.

One thing: I wish the flaws in my own thinking were as clear to me as the flaws in his thinking are. We’re all human (except for the trolls), and we’re all subject to the same cognitive biases and shortcomings.

He did a good job of presenting the bear thesis. A lot of what he said deserves thoughtful consideration. It all falls on deaf ears here, though - "Our minds are made up, don't confuse us with facts!"

IMHO, his most significant point was that the bulls have an almost religious fervor (he must be reading this board...).

 

[EinSV]

IMHO, his most significant point was that the bulls have an almost religious fervor (he must be reading this board...).

Oh ye of little faith.

Each time hordes of shorts have tried to storm the TSLA castle walls en masse, driving the SP down, the fortitude of Tesla longs who held firm has been richly rewarded.

Each time, the shorts have slunk off, bloodied, battered and utterly defeated.

This time it's different, you say? John Templeton - Wikiquote