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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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About the competition, prices:

Audi e-tron: 80,000 €
Porsche: 95,000 €
VW: assumed 60 - 80,000 €

At this price points I do fear that they won't create enough demand to make the cars profitable.

Deutsche Arroganz: Die Tesla-Killer werden zu teuer
What VW is that? Not the ID Neo, surely.

(Did you mean to write Daimler? The EQC, which looks like a Model Y competitor?)
 
What VW is that? Not the ID Neo, surely.

(Did you mean to write Damiler? The EQC, which looks like a Model Y competiotor?)

No. Its the assumed pricing of the new VW EVs from Auto Bild. They are not yet released.

Given that a large cost factor is the battery and all competitiors buy the batteries from suppliers who don't have economy of scale like Panasonic we can assume that the costs for Daimler, VW, Porsche and BMW are higher and the specs are likely lower. Not to mention the higher energy density of Tesla Batteries and the profit other batterie producers want to make.

For that reason it makes sense that their cars will have a higher price point for the same range.

Daimler should be in the same range or they accept a loss per car - something I don't expect to happen.
 
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Once M3 enters china market, it would compete directly with BYD too ? But yes EV team competes with ICE team as well.
They very well could offer similar cars but it doesn't necessarily mean they compete with each other. As long as each EV makers are making cars that are better than their ICE competition, and their EV sales are supply constrained, not demand constrained, then there is no real competition among them. The more EVs each one makes, the faster they both combine to choke off the money train for the ICE car makers.
 
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No. Its the assumed pricing of the new VW EVs from Auto Bild. They are not yet released.

Given that a large cost factor is the battery and all competitiors buy the batteries from suppliers who don't have economy of scale like Panasonic we can assume that the costs for Daimler, VW, Porsche and BMW are higher and the specs are likely lower. Not to mention the higher energy density of Tesla Batteries and the profit other batterie producers want to make.

For that reason it makes sense that their cars will have a higher price point for the same range.

Daimler should be in the same range or they accept a loss per car - something I don't expect to happen.
I can't find anything in the article referencing a VW EV at €60-80k, only the EQC. But my German isn't great.

I really can't imagine VW bringing out an EV in that price range any time soon. The ID range looks like it won't compete with Tesla to any meaningful degree, and the cars look like they will be a lot cheaper than €60-80k.
 
I can't find anything in the article referencing a VW EV at €60-80k, only the EQC. But my German isn't great.

I really can't imagine VW bringing out an EV in that price range any time soon. The ID range looks like it won't compete with Tesla to any meaningful degree, and the cars look like they will be a lot cheaper than €60-80k.

You are right, the article talks about Daimler in respect of €60 - 80k. My apologize.
 

We do not know if Elon referred to anything specific like an announcement but the risk of rising SP for shorts is definitely rising every day.
In all probability the big number he was talking about was the short interest. I don't think Tesla is going to announce anything massive in the near future, except profitability and positive cash flow.

Is that enough to set off a short squeeze? I don't know.
 
No. It’s correlated but has to do with China IMO!!
Go back to his twitter feed and see what other event happened on the same day he tweeted “place your bets”.

During a recent auto show in China - why do you think tencent introduced tesla at the show?


Posit: Elon Musk is Tesla’s single largest shareholder. What if he has been lending out his shares for others to short and he decides to recall ALL AT ONCE?!? Is this even feasible?
 
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No. It’s correlated but has to do with China!!
Go back to his twitter feed and see what other event happened on the same day he tweeted “place your bets”.

During a recent auto show in China - why do you think tencent introduced tesla at the show?
 
I think Tesla needs to change it’s manufacturing approach radically at some point in future, say when Tsla is start producing 10 K/ week at some point , at that time all learning is done , then they should approach someone like Foxconn and say here is all technology, produce 50k/ week car for us, Apple does it ,so why not Tsla.
But why? Tesla is building its own factories now (GF1) and its people have the know how. Utilization will be 100%, so the only reason to add a middle entity would be to trade off investment now for profits later.
 
Thoughts I had while tilling the field, not sure if they mean more together than apart:

The 3 is being built on the first set of tooling.
Tesla already has two semi tractors made.
Roadster has two prototypes made.
Prototype tooling would be an R&D expense.
Lower volume products do not fit well with high CapEx production lines.
 
But why? Tesla is building its own factories now (GF1) and its people have the know how. Utilization will be 100%, so the only reason to add a middle entity would be to trade off investment now for profits later.
There is limitation on what Tesla alone could do it to meet demand, they don’t have apple kind of money and Wall Street obsession with short term profitability doesn’t make it any easier. But If Tesla announce something with China it would be great news, China execute things at speed of light, if you recall Elon tweet about China in regards to building train station in like 24 hours.
 
In yesterday’s event, Buffett said he did understand some of those companies, but thought they could have been leap-frogged by competition, which did not happen.

This is easily proven impossible in Tesla’s case. Competition is non-existent for many years. This is why I had expected Buffett to take a position, it this has not happened.

thoroughly agree. that is why I tweeted Buffett about Tesla, as it happens literally the day before the stock price started exploding in 2013- because I thought if Buffett looked at Tesla for 15 minutes, he'd feel compelled to look for hours, and after that longer look he would be buying Tesla as furiously as the strings around Berkshire Hathaway would allow (of course, I didn't think there was much of any chance he'd actually read my tweet, but, I did it for the spirit of the whole thing). I thought all of this as much as anything because the method of valuing a business that had me supersize bullish about Tesla, like no other company before, was more than anything the extent to which I'd learned Buffett's manner of valuing a business. To me Tesla has always been the ultimate "Buffett stock", and still is. I know not everyone will agree with that, but, I see Buffett as all about buying future forecasted earnings at a cheap price, and Tesla measures extremely well on that scale.

(ps- I'm too focused on facts to be a good story teller... a couple of year's later, someone showed me that my "tweet to Buffett" had actually been to a phony Buffett account : (
 
I've been thinking about Elon's tweet about the massive numbers or whatever he said. You know, even 5k M3s a week at ASP of $50k (which may hold longer as gas prices rise and people compete for buying a Model 3 before tax credit expiration) is $250 million revenue per week! That is a lot of money! Makes it seem like raising capital really is totally unnecessary if can happen soon.

But maybe he has something else up his sleeve. Who knows. I'd be happy with just focussing on M3 ramp for now.
 
I am smelling some radical changes are coming at Tesla , it has to be more then making m3 at 5k/ week, they mention restructuring of company in conference call, strong refusal for future need for raising capital, warning to short sellers.All this point to something bigly coming soon.

The restructuring Elon referenced was getting rid of the barnacles, or contractors who are not productive. It’ll save Tesla a ton of money. He likely saw some of this first hand when he was at the GF.
 
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