General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sub]

You posted " The other apparent change with Tesla is the smaller performance differences between battery sizes than previous. X75D basically same as X100D for example. So, bigger battery is much more of a nice to have than a necessity."

The assertion was that there was some change Tesla made to account for smaller performance differences between battery sizes. I took this to mean some battery pack technical change. Difference between X75D and X100D is only .2 seconds, and I explained how that is almost certainly due to Tesla SW limits to incent purchases of more profitable P100D. Having a bigger battery is better on two counts.
Longer range AND higher performance. Higher performance either now or sometime later when Tesla decides to unlock a higher discharge rate to enable faster acceleration. This is exactly what they did only a month or two ago. With Model 3 for next year or two, my bet is they will limit current on the LR version somewhat, so when a P version is available, they can make it much faster than LR M3 and charge lots more for the P. There may be circumstances 2 or more years out that lead them to unlock the current limit and increase LR M3 performance significantly. IMO, if you pay an extra 9K to get the larger battery, you should get a 'twofer'. Longer range and all of the faster acceleration the extra cells can provide. That said, Tesla for now at least is going to fine tune this to benefit better revenue and profit and that is how it should be to permit continued 50% annual growth.

I think you misunderstood my post. I agree with everything you said here. My point was in response to @ValueAnalyst question regarding LR/SR sales ratio. I pointed to supercharger network maturity and less difference in 0-60 performance of newer (non P) Teslas vs the past (going off memory for prior model performance) that may skew the percentage more to the shorter range model now vs 2013. In basing this off of what Tesla lists capabilities on their website based on what car will currently do. The potential to unlock performance in the large trading battery models is there of course, but not guaranteed. New owners to Tesla most likely won't be aware it's been done in the past either.

 

[adiggs]

It may be a long way off, however for anyone wanting to make batteries at scale this must very appealing. The input cost will be tiny.

Total agreement on that. Instead of $$/lb, we switch to a material priced by the ton.

And you don't buy a ton or 2 at a time typically Drop that input cost by 3 or 4 orders of magnitude - that'll make a dent.

 

[dc_h]

Speaking of food and robots and Tesla:
Jack in the Box CEO talking about robots for fast food.

I would be surprised if Alexa or some similar bot is not taking drive through orders this year. Could be inside restaurants also, but at drive through seems least resistance.

 

[comanchepilot]

I would be surprised if Alexa or some similar bot is not taking drive through orders this year. Could be inside restaurants also, but at drive through seems least resistance.

Alexa works by learning your voice intonation - I have NEVER found a random voice activated bot EVER accomplish anything accurately first time - and by the third time most people get frustrated and give up. Kiosks are one thing - but voice activated is simply not ready for prime time -

It take the car an appreciable pause to understand what you are saying, then translate that into action today. And it learns as it goes.

 

[sundaymorning]

Lawsuit claims Ford rigged Super Duty pickups to beat emissions tests

 

[JRP3]

Alexa works by learning your voice intonation - I have NEVER found a random voice activated bot EVER accomplish anything accurately first time

Alexa on my Kindle Fire HD responded to a video on my laptop talking to their Alexa.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Alexa on my Kindle Fire HD responded to a video on my laptop talking to their Alexa.

It's not that hard to get devices talking to each other, forever :

 

[ggr]

It's not that hard to get devices talking to each other, forever :

That's not an infinite loop... it will stop at 6pm.

 

[RobStark]

Electric car manufacturer Tesla granted licenses to sell direct in R.I.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electric car manufacturer Tesla granted licenses to sell direct in R.I.

I replied to the article by writing it was nonsense for the dealers' spokesman to claim consumers get better car prices and warranty protection through franchised dealerships. Someone immediately flagged my comment as spam.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I think you misunderstood my post. I agree with everything you said here. My point was in response to @ValueAnalyst question regarding LR/SR sales ratio. I pointed to supercharger network maturity and less difference in 0-60 performance of newer (non P) Teslas vs the past (going off memory for prior model performance) that may skew the percentage more to the shorter range model now vs 2013. In basing this off of what Tesla lists capabilities on their website based on what car will currently do. The potential to unlock performance in the large trading battery models is there of course, but not guaranteed. New owners to Tesla most likely won't be aware it's been done in the past either.

Apologies if I misunderstood.

 

[generalenthu]

Some speculation from alleged inside sources on Reddit that the model 3 standard range release got pushed out to September and AWD release got advanced to May. SR buyers may never see the full 7.5K discount.

This should keep the ASP on the 3 pretty high, into Q3/Q4. I'd assume the performance version with AWD, Air suspension, with an optional Ludicrous mode would together be another ~20K more. i'd expect this to bump the model 3 ASP to around ~60K after release, in H2 2018. Tesla will likely prioritize shipping these over the standard LR once it is out.

Based on comments on this thread.

[Discussion] What is everyone doing in between cars if currently leasing and waiting for Model 3? • r/teslamotors

 

[schonelucht]

So, 2500 Model 3's delivered and Tesla made a significant change by switching the interior material. I don't have a particular issue with the new material as well, in that 90% of customers won't cars, 9% will grumble and maybe delay their purchase a bit and 1% will switch most of them to an S maybe. But.

1) It's once again infuriatingly bad communication from Tesla that people have to find this out through a forum post from someone who happened to notice it upon his delivery. (With the usual replies 'don't believe you', 'is a mistake', 'Tesla will make this right', ... until the pictures arrive)
2) More importantly, this is exactly the production pattern that creates or at least worsens the 'waiting for parts' issue where some repairs take weeks or months because of parts supply.

Not a good sign of things to come. Hopefully it's a one off.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I'm collecting some data points - the trend is down,

 

[Runarbt]

I'm collecting some data points - the trend is down,

View attachment 272476

you need to add in a graph with total value of short positions. my guess is its pretty close to a constant 10billio usd position.

 

[sweter]

If I set my expectations to match Jonas at 90k, then I can be pleasantly surprised if Tesla surpasses that. If they do hit 90k in 2018, it's 'only' a 5 to 10x increase to get in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 range in 2019.

At projected 90k this year it's highly doubtful that Model 3 will be delivered anywhere outside the US, especially not Europe. I imagine when the federal tax credit phase out starts many US buyers won't be happy seeing the cars built but delivered to Canadians & Europeans. Any car delivered internationally during the phase out means one US customer not getting their tax credit. At the same time it might be unfair to international customers if their deliveries are further delayed. I wonder what Tesla will do?

 

[Buddyroe]

So, 2500 Model 3's delivered and Tesla made a significant change by switching the interior material. I don't have a particular issue with the new material as well, in that 90% of customers won't cars, 9% will grumble and maybe delay their purchase a bit and 1% will switch most of them to an S maybe. But.

1) It's once again infuriatingly bad communication from Tesla that people have to find this out through a forum post from someone who happened to notice it upon his delivery. (With the usual replies 'don't believe you', 'is a mistake', 'Tesla will make this right', ... until the pictures arrive)
2) More importantly, this is exactly the production pattern that creates or at least worsens the 'waiting for parts' issue where some repairs take weeks or months because of parts supply.

Not a good sign of things to come. Hopefully it's a one off.

I'm not sure I understand this post. You're saying that Tesla changed an interior part to a different material? Like, it was aluminum and now it's plastic? What exactly got switched?

And is it possible that they switched it because the supplier of the original material/part was not able to fill orders? And the supplier of the new material/part could?

And further, what does, "Tesla will make this right" mean? Is the new material/part failing?

Tesla has only made around 3000 M3s. Most future buyers have never even seen one in person, so how would they have an expectation of what the interior material is? And what if the new material is an improvement?

Finally, do you have a source for this info? Or for the stats you provided?

I guess I don't quite understand this post.

 

[schonelucht]

I'm not sure I understand this post. You're saying that Tesla changed an interior part to a different material? Like, it was aluminum and now it's plastic? What exactly got switched?

The interior material on the pillar and the headliner was alcantara but is now a woven cloth.

And is it possible that they switched it because the supplier of the original material/part was not able to fill orders? And the supplier of the new material/part could?

Anything is possible.

And further, what does, "Tesla will make this right" mean? Is the new material/part failing?

That was referring to early posters who suggested this was a mistake and Tesla will make it right (a common response on forums). In this case, Tesla has made it clear the change is there to stay so there is no 'making right'.

Tesla has only made around 3000 M3s. Most future buyers have never even seen one in person, so how would they have an expectation of what the interior material is?

As I said, most will not care and those that care will get over it. That's not the point of my post in the investor section. It makes no sense to discuss the merits of this change with regards to quality of the car here. The car is good either way. It's what consequences this kind of operational changes have in the future on the business as a whole that I feel are negative.

Finally, do you have a source for this info? Or for the stats you provided?

It's all over the Model 3 section here, on reddit and the Tesla forum. Pretty hard to miss. Change from alcantara to cloth on PUP???

I guess I don't quite understand this post.

Let me try to explain it again. Tesla made a significant change after just 2500 cars to a very visible part of the interior without letting customers know that what was shown during the reveals, during the testrides and from the initial production was actually not what later customers were ordering. That's just poor communication. No? Maybe I am oldfashioned but if you are selling cars sight unseen, the least you owe your customers is being upfront with what exactly they are getting and pro-actively trying to avoid false expectations.

Secondly, switching parts like this makes maintenance and service harder. Technicians must be trained on both materials and service centers/bodyshops/Fremont need to stock both or face longer wait times for parts. We see this problem with the Model S and X as well. Now, if it was just the interior material, it's not a big deal. But it's not a good sign for what to come.

 

[ggies07]

Some speculation from alleged inside sources on Reddit that the model 3 standard range release got pushed out to September and AWD release got advanced to May. SR buyers may never see the full 7.5K discount.

No fing way....I will be very upset...sigh.....hopefully it's just speculation.....At this point, I don't care of the damn stock price, I care about getting off my ICE and making the world a better place and Tesla actually doing what it's mission statement says instead of producing cars at high margin.

 

[Reciprocity]

No fing way....I will be very upset...sigh.....hopefully it's just speculation.....At this point, I don't care of the damn stock price, I care about getting off my ICE and making the world a better place and Tesla actually doing what it's mission statement says instead of producing cars for profit.

How can Tesla save the world if they are in Bankruptcy? Dont kid yourself, Tesla is in business to make money. Now it wants to reinvest that money into a massive expansion which will eventually meet the goals of the mission statement, but it cannot do that making bad fiscal decisions. One way they are successful in meeting the missions overall goal is to survive long enough to accomplish those goals. I get that it sucks for those wanting to take advantage of the full tax credit, but there is another side to even that story. Many of those in the market for a $35k car will not have enough Tax due to take full advantage of the tax credit anyway. I have no clue what the split is, but you would need to have $7500 in tax due/paid throughout the Year. Just the Fed portion, not state and not SSI/Medicare. You basically need to have no kids and make about $80k. You cannot roll over the unused credit into the next year.

I dont know how much this might play into the idea of releasing the $35k car later, but there will still be $3850 for the next couple of quarters, which is still over 10% discount. Putting that into context, it will be about the same discount as the cheapest model S today on a percentage basis or on the most expensive model 3.

What I dont get is that the Dual motor version is going to be more complex to validate and to manufacture, I would think that it would be simpler to just do a smaller pack. Or even the same exact pack, only software locked. I know it seems crazy now, but we have no idea what the status of cell production is, maybe its higher then they can sell based on much slower auto ramp. I know the pack assembly was the bottleneck, but maybe they have been stockpiling cells all this time. The issue there, is that you probably dont want those sitting for to long without normal use.