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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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This is why I dont believe the original report, because the smaller battery is just a single part that probably has the exact same external connections and is the exact same form factor. The only difference would be less cells in the pack with some type of spacers filling the empty space. How is this handled in S/X today? So there would be no changes to the production line to do the SR. There would also be only minor changes to the pack line as everything but the final pack assembly would change since the packs are module based.

Is this certain? I know the model S & X have swappable battery packs, but do we know that the model 3's pack is one contiguous unit (and thus swappable)?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the SR had 2 modules, and LR has 3. If that's the case, the "pack" might not have the same dimensions or else you'll have balance issues (either front-back or left-right). If it is the same dimensions, then the filler space will be HUGE and need to offset in all four directions.

Maybe they're having trouble with the pack assembly line due to the completely different layout of the modules?

Since the space for a second motor was already allocated, I think it's possible that adding it might've been simpler than the new SR pack.
 
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Is this certain? I know the model S & X have swappable battery packs, but do we know that the model 3's pack is one contiguous unit (and thus swappable)?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the SR had 2 modules, and LR has 3. If that's the case, the "pack" might not have the same dimensions or else you'll have balance issues (either front-back or left-right). If it is the same dimensions, then the filler space will be HUGE and need to offset in all four directions.

Maybe they're having trouble with the pack assembly line due to the completely different layout of the modules?

Since the space for a second motor was already allocated, I think it's possible that adding it might've been simpler than the new SR pack.
From this Electrek article, it seems SR and LR have the same amount of modules, 4, but LR has more cells....
Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture

The standard 50 kWh Model 3 battery pack is made of 2,976 of those cells in groups of 31 cells per “brick”. The bricks go into 4 separate modules (2 modules of 23 bricks and 2 modules of 25 bricks).

That pack is going into production later this year. Currently, Tesla is producing a 74 kWh ‘long range’ battery pack, which consists of 4416 cells in groups of 46 cells per brick and the same brick distribution in the 4 modules. Here’s a diagram of the distribution of the cells in a Model 3 battery pack:

tesla-model-3-battery-pack-modules.jpg
 
If this is true, and knowing Tesla I think it’s fairly likely to be true, they should at least let those of us who took time out of our day to stand in line get a Long Range car that is software limited to short range for the promised $35k prior to rolling out the AWD. Otherwise that is really a slap in the face to those of us who stood in line. Actually it’s a slap in the face to all SR buyers obviously, but if you reserved online your “investment” is much smaller and therefore only a soft front-handed slap rather than full on back-handed slap.

You folks disagreeing with this are adding salt to the wound. It is what it is. I get it. But they said they would build base model first. Now reality requires a different approach. I understand that. But the least they could do is throw a bone to those who support the company enough to stand in line and reserve a car sight unseen.

It’s a relatively small number of cars so they could just mix it in as they go.

For what it’s worth (not much I presume), my estimated delivery for SR still says “early 2018”. Whatever that means.

I realize this is off topic, so I’ll stop mentioning it but I really appreciate all you guys support and comfort on Tesla coming short on their promise once again if they push SR reservations back. Least you could say is “yeah that sucks, but financially they got to do what they got to do”, rather than just hit the disagree button and rub it in.
 
You folks disagreeing with this are adding salt to the wound. It is what it is. I get it. But they said they would build base model first. Now reality requires a different approach. I understand that. But the least they could do is throw a bone to those who support the company enough to stand in line and reserve a car sight unseen.

It’s a relatively small number of cars so they could just mix it in as they go.

For what it’s worth (not much I presume), my estimated delivery for SR still says “early 2018”. Whatever that means.

I realize this is off topic, so I’ll stop mentioning it but I really appreciate all you guys support and comfort on Tesla coming short on their promise once again if they push SR reservations back. Least you could say is “yeah that sucks, but financially they got to do what they got to do”, rather than just hit the disagree button and rub it in.

Not saying you're wrong but can you provide link to Tesla saying they would build base model first? I stood in line day one and I don't remember hearing this.

By the way, I know it sucks, but financially Tesla has to do what they have to do. ;)
 
Not saying you're wrong but can you provide link to Tesla saying they would build base model first? I stood in line day one and I don't remember hearing this.

By the way, I know it sucks, but financially Tesla has to do what they have to do. ;)

I've been thinking about this, and now I remember it was during or after the initial reveal that they said that. I'll see if I can find the reference. May have been an Elon tweet. Regardless, it is true that when I was standing in line, I expected they would do high end models first like they have always done in the past. But then to say otherwise and get my hopes up, and then back pedal. Its still harsh...
 
I've been thinking about this, and now I remember it was during or after the initial reveal that they said that. I'll see if I can find the reference. May have been an Elon tweet. Regardless, it is true that when I was standing in line, I expected they would do high end models first like they have always done in the past. But then to say otherwise and get my hopes up, and then back pedal. Its still harsh...

I can't find a reference. I may have just inferred by the fact that they were not doing a signature model first that it meant orders would be processed based on priority discussed (employees, prior owners, region, etc) regardless of option selection... Whatever, I'm over it.
 
@schonelucht I had time to reflect on our earlier conversation. I know agree with you that there is no evidence to support pack-level $100/kWh earlier than 2020. My assumptions for gross margin now incorporate $125/kWh for 2018, $110/kWh for 2019, and $100/kWh for 2020. Thanks for taking the time to play devil's advocate.
Nicely played. Reminds me of this TED talk on loosing arguments. For argument's sake
 
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I've been thinking about this, and now I remember it was during or after the initial reveal that they said that. I'll see if I can find the reference. May have been an Elon tweet. Regardless, it is true that when I was standing in line, I expected they would do high end models first like they have always done in the past. But then to say otherwise and get my hopes up, and then back pedal. Its still harsh...

Not sure about building SR first, but damnit, for those thinking differently than us, listened to the emotion in Elon's voice on caring for those who waited without seeing what the car would look like(Starts at 12 min mark). I know things can change, but I'm just not sure it's the right thing to do if true....fingers crossed it's just speculation...

 
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What’s with first solar? Up more than 8% today

As of 11:30 NY time, the solar stocks I follow are having quite the morning. In order, and hoping the tabulation holds up:

Hanwha -0.23%
Renesol +2.33%
Jinko Solar +2.71%
Canadian Solar +3.01%
First Solar +8.82%
Sunpower +10.60%

But I've not seen anything specific yet for reasons.
Can't remember, is it today or tomorrow that Pres. T. is supposed to pen the exact terms for solar tariffs? Maybe he's been too busy tweeting, and I've been too busy to follow.

Could be some leak along those lines?
 
FWIW, Tesla assigned VIN 41xx today.
VIN Assignment

M3 Production Speculation
At the end of Q4 Tesla had produced 2450 M3 while the highest assigned VIN was around 28xx IIRC. From watching VINs over the past few months, it doesn't appear that Tesla is assigning VINs before they are produced. Rather the reason assigned VINs are higher than total production is because some VINs have been skipped or scrapped to the tune of about 400-500 cars.

So it appears that subtracting ~500 off the highest assigned VIN gives a rough idea of the total M3 produced thus far. With today's assigning of VIN 41xx, my guess is that Tesla has now produced about 3600 Model 3 cars - or additional 1150 cars since Q4. That puts them at about 100 cars/day (700/wk) for January thus far.

That's better than I was expecting, as I expected only a trickle in the first half of January as Tesla tweaks their line after the late December EoQ surge. So I see this as a positive, although it is a very rough estimate.
 
Not sure about building SR first, but damnit, for those thinking differently than us, listened to the emotion in Elon's voice on caring for those who waited without seeing what the car would look like(Starts at 12 min mark). I know things can change, but I'm just not sure it's the right thing to do if true....fingers crossed it's just speculation...

I've been waiting for a Tesla vehicle for over 10 years now, I plan on getting the SR Model 3, but I always expected higher priced models to be built first. I'll be disappointed if the SR models are pushed out of the tax credit period but I don't remember any promise from Tesla to the contrary.
 
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Anybody remember what % of cars are leased? I was thinking it was something like 30% but can't remember where I heard that. Reason I ask is accounting changes which went into effect Jan 1 "The adoption of the ASUs might accelerate the revenue recognition of certain vehicle sales to customers or leasing partners with a resale value guarantee, which may qualify to be accounted for as sales with a right of return as opposed to the current accounting as operating leases or collateralized lease borrowings" per 3Q 10K.
 
Wow strong selling pressure already?

Without fresh news, that's hedge fund manipulation. They want to quickly trigger stop-loss-limits of weak longs and encourage short sellers. The manipulators will cover their new shorts rather quickly and leave retail traders holding the bag. Many of the victims are day traders, who may be compelled to exit their positions before the market closes. Regular institutional investors trade in time intervals that are more measured so as not to upset the market. Papafox cleverly refers to similar manipulation as "whack the mole".
 
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Without fresh news, that's hedge fund manipulation. They want to quickly trigger stop-loss-limits of weak longs and encourage short sellers. The manipulators will cover their shorts rather quickly and leave retail traders holding the bag. Regular institutional investors trade in time intervals that are more measured so as not to upset the market. Papafox cleverly refers to this type of manipulation as "whack the mole".
I agree. This is totally manipulation. The index did not drop, neither did any other stock that's up more than 1%. Unless there's something we don't know of..
 
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