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Waiting4M3
Active Member
My point is I'm pretty happy with where TSLA is at looking back at 2012. If you're not, that's fine with me.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Adam Jonas actually publishing something positive
Does this seem like a reasonable analysis?
Tesla: A Classic Case of Building Economies of Scale to Achieve Profitability
Tesla: A Classic Case of Building Economies of Scale to Achieve Profitability
From the headline alone I can already say yes.
..and reading it... Yes. The only thing which stands out is describing this as a "special situation that doesn't present itself very often" which shows how distorted the rest of the stock market has gotten. This was the normal situation for any 19th century stock corporation.
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Both I and Pepperidge Farms remember those days. About 2/3rds of my TSLA holdings are represented here (date, quantity, cost per share at time of purchase):
11/07/13, 4, $141.86
3/14/14, 4, $233.08
5/14/14, 67, $189.51
1/25/16, 35, $200.80
Etna
Member
Wait, the fine print suggests this chart simply shows a common 1.16 deaths per 100 mm miles for all brands and then multiplied by the forecast market share in 2020?Adam Jonas actually publishing something positive
This is a totally meaningless chart, unless I am missing something.
Adam Jonas actually publishing something positive
oh cmon, this is so ridiculous, tesla has more fatalities than this last week
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Right! Exactly!
It's like Wall Street has forgotten what the point of "capital" was in "capitalism." You take capital from investors, plow it in infrastructure to accelerate growth, look for a rate of return higher than sitting in treasuries, and rinse and repeat as more opportunities to accelerate growth show up.
When did they stop teaching this at B school??
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I agree with you that I would not take anything Adam Jonas says about 2020 with much credence. Both the forecast market share and assumptions on 2020 vehicle safety level are pretty much wild guesses.
Etna made a much better point. Yous is just cherry-picking using a single week that has no statistical significance.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
The chart is for a weekly estimated fatality rate
I totally understand your frustration. But if looked closely, there are big problems with every single company.
Take Apple, to put it bluntly, they simply don't know how to build large scale software. In many of their acquisitions, key people take the money and left. There are no proper software engineering practice in their internet and services departments. They spent zillions of dollars on data centers and leave the computers run cold, at the same time spend sugar load of money buying cloud storage service from Microsoft before and Google nowadays. It's leaky abstractions and spaghetti code everywhere. That widely praised "walled garden" ecosystem, there is no clearly defined interfaces and protocols, everything is adhoc. And that's the real reason for the "walled" garden cause they can not easily integrate with third party without severely compromise security. They heavily rely on an army of functional test team to ensure the thing works before release, and that's the reason for the delay of home pod. Without clearly separated components, it is difficult to locate problems early. This leads to delivery crunch time, sleepless nights for the engineers and tester, and of course, burn outs.
Yet, Apple is still Apple, it still provides a smooth experience, ahead of everyone else.
And while I agree with you on almost every aspect, shouldn't we see a nice change this time that no more next big break-though promised anymore, they refused to talk about model-y or the semi or the new roadster, all hands on deck to get to profitability. Isn't that a good sign?
I think what our complaints are about always reduce to timing and the understandable gap between Tesla's promise with Elon's occasional articulation of his hopes, on the one hand, and actual performance on the other. In short, timing is everything for the impatient. I tried arbitrage over time with a few shares when the stock reached what I considered SP over $200 nose bleed high. Then it went up even more, and I bought back at $240 or so, and then it cratered. Result: lost 7 shares in that Roth at around $200 value. Mind you being stupid as well as uninformedI did not use options or anything more than a finger in the air to determine the direction of the wind of fate. Conclusion: I remain what I was, forever long.
Two things have saved me. I started investing in Tesla in 2010 and I have little income so bought only pittances at $340 and $311 recently and am now trying to save as much cash as possible for a pending M3 purchase. If you are long the payoff is potentially limitless. The damn company is increasing sales nearly 50% every year.
It is understandable to be upset as you and many others are. Hang on. At nearly 82 I have much more patience than earlier, though time remaining is limited. Tesla will not disappoint in my lifetime. Yours?
I think it is the monetization of everything which started in politics with Reagan if not earlier. Correlates as well with the decline in our middle class which Aristotle warned us about a bit earlier. Also, there were warning signs as early as 1980 from Harvard B school which are quite relevant today.
Managing Our Way to Economic Decline
Anstandswauwau
Member
It is. Kinda. Hope dies last, after all. At least it appears like EM is now listening to the advice of the board.
Anyway.
In hindsight, the Roadster reveal was a bit of wasted gun powder – wish they would have waited another year or so to counter the Mission E production start / preorder / release with that. Don't get me wrong, it created quite a bit of buzz in the car enthusiasm scene, but not so much in the mainstream media, were it was mere sidenote in the Semi coverage.
The communication concerning MY, so far, worries me a bit, due to the repeated backpedaling:
- Platform: Going from an original chassis to M3 platform (which I really welcome, but, uh, why wasn't this the plan in the first place?)
- Production line: Going from full alien dreadnought to, what sounds like M3 1.5 with a shorter cable harness. (Sidenote: I'm still a bit shocked how complex the M3 turned out to be. I was secretly hoping for way smaller part-count. Battery is a thing of a beauty but also quite overengineered, according lad who did the teardown.)
- Production location: Going from "we know where we want to build it" to "we're still figuring out where to build it" 17 month prior planned production start. This is not exactly a signal you want to send. Hope he's bluffing on this one.
Anstandswauwau
Member
Hard so say – I could die tomorrow in the deathtrap that is my 20yo ICE car
But anyway, thanks for your kind and wise words, Intl Professor. Really appreciate it
Just needed to vent a bit after a tough day at work. Again, I'm sorry.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The lad doesn't understand or does not put a high value on safety.
He said there were panels he found and had no idea why they were there.
Tesla spokesman specifically cited safety as the top concern when engineering the platform.
Hint: Those panels were there for reinforcement to increase passenger safety.
We regularly hear about how a legacy automaker compromised safety to save a few pennies or a few dollars on a part. Tesla does not do that. In the long run that is good for Tesla's bottom line.
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