General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Here’s a tent ready-made just for Audi executives, courtesy of Sheriff Joe

:

 

[Sparky]

As stated before I am not worried about GA3 and 4; with four lines, they'll be well over 5000/week quickly. The only bottlenecks which worry me are the paint shop and the other one Musk mentioned, getting the body line to sustain 5000/week reliably.

I agree but pretty sure it's just 3 lines, with GA1 dedicated to S/X. Based on EM's tweet, GA3 is doing well. On GA4, shifts happen. Still unsure what the integrand will be but sure seems derivative is increasing.

 

[30seconds]

Here’s a tent ready-made just for Audi executives, courtesy of Sheriff JoeView attachment 312450 :

And he can show them how to get convicted while he is at it

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The story of Tesla's Tent reminds me of another story I actually heard when I was at the Museum of Flight. If you ever visit Seattle, it's a really fun place to visit for a day. Anyways, the story of the Boeing 737 and the start of production is fascinating.

Boeing: Historical Snapshot: 737 Commercial Transport

The first 737 was the last new airplane to be built at Plant 2 on Boeing Field in Seattle, with a production run that included the legendary B-17 Flying Fortress, B-52 Stratofortress and the world’s first large swept-wing jet — the XB-47 Stratojet. While the old assembly building at Plant 2 seemed cavernous, it still wasn’t tall enough for the 737’s tail, which was attached using a crane in the parking lot. The plane was then rolled down to a nearby plant known as the Thompson Site, where Boeing had set up the first production line for the 737.

The 737 has gone on to become the most successful commercial jetliner in the world with over 10,000 produced. There are so many 737 in service today that at any given moment, about 1,250 737's are in the air flying somewhere and every 5 seconds 2 of these planes take off or land. We can all hope that the Model 3 will one day be remembered the same way, as the first ubiquitous and most successful electric car.

 

[Lessmog]

And he can show them how to get convicted while he is at it

"Pardon?"

 

[wnorris]

It sounds as though Solar Roof installs may be starting up in larger numbers...

Got a message today about the Solar Roof but is it worth it?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Long-term Model 3 demand

Large sample size: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[SPadival]

A Clown Named Don (Mattingly) on Twitter

Drive unit has been sustaining 6.5k to 7k per week (source). Paint and final assy are last hurdle. No doubt within company that they’ll hit 5k and perhaps not stop there.

It will be good if we can get a second source to confirm this (unlike “journalists” like Lora and Dana who use a single source to bash Tesla)

 

[MacRocket]

Well folks. One of our TMC members has become famous on twitter. If you are long Tesla and haven’t seen Jims video then hop over to the “Elon Needs Our Help” thread for the link and details.
If the share price for TSLA goes up this week we all owe Jim a beer.

 

[electracity]

A Clown Named Don (Mattingly) on Twitter
It will be good if we can get a second source to confirm this (unlike “journalists” like Lora and Dana who use a single source to bash Tesla)

Creating thousands of extra unneeded drive unit per day is not happening. What may be true is that department is running well and is capable of that level of production. A fair assumption would be that current production planning is at about 7000 M3/week. That would put Fremont at about 450,000 cars per year, which seems about right for a plant that size. Of course Tesla plans to go past 450K in Fremont, but 450K is a good guess at normal full capacity which is a major milestone.

 

[pyromatter]

However you also need a steady supply to create a buffer at Fremont to account for any downtime at Giga. Also how many drive units fail during testing? You don't want to run short of 5K run rate.

 

[mongo]

Creating thousands of extra unneeded drive unit per day is not happening. What may be true is that department is running well and is capable of that level of production. A fair assumption would be that current production planning is at about 7000 M3/week. That would put Fremont at about 450,000 cars per year, which seems about right for a plant that size. Of course Tesla plans to go past 450K in Fremont, but 450K is a good guess at normal full capacity which is a major milestone.

Depending on how they are counting, some cars need two drive units. 7k drive units could indicate 3k RWD and 2k P/D vehicle production.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Everybody, please give a warm welcome to the newest member of the #TeslaKillerCemetery!!

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[avoigt]

However you also need a steady supply to create a buffer at Fremont to account for any downtime at Giga. Also how many drive units fail during testing? You don't want to run short of 5K run rate.

The overall beauty of a high automation factory and supply chain is that the elements are in synchronization and delivery goes just in time.

Why just in time? The material flow needs to be like a river going into another river without interruption.

If you have disruptions and buffer because parts are missing you end up with a large mess and complexity that is almost impossible to handle and manage in a high units environment. Cost explode and you need to store and pick once the engine starts again and than phase out from store and in from ordinary supply.

All automakers have managed in the last decades to build and establish JIT production even with an entire Tier 1 and Tier 2 network supplying. If one cannot deliver and you don't have a working backup you better stop the entire machine and restart later. Even storing almost finished products and adding missing parts at the very assembly end has been tried and created more issues in QC and costs than most people can imagine.

The costs and production benefits of this seamless production flows are superior above all the attempts to organize serial production.

If we believe that the produce a certain amount today in GA say 6k or more a week than we should assume that all other previous parts are on the same tact rate. Some small buffers may exist but they are more a part of a problem than a part of a solution.

 

[avoigt]

Everybody, please give a warm welcome to the newest member of the #TeslaKillerCemetery!!

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

It would be fun to list all who have ended up at that cemetery so far.

 

[avoigt]

This is incredible. I cannot imagine that they have to cancel that important release without even setting a new one with claim of organizational challenges. That does sound something did go severely wrong! It looks like they indicate this has to do with the new CEO which does not make a lot of sense to me.

"Audi, Volkswagen’s most profitable unit, said late on Monday that the Audi Summit, set for August 30 in Brussels where the e-tron will be built, has been cancelled. Instead, the summit will take place at an undetermined time and location in the United States.

(...)

Hours before Audi’s notice, Mercedes issued a press release saying it would officially launch its new all-electric brand, EQ, on September 4. Its first vehicle will be the EQC, a SUV to rival the Audi e-tron. (...)

Mr Stadler acknowledged that Tesla, despite its production problems, has captured the imagination of a new generation of drivers, robbing German carmakers of their reputation for having an innovative edge.

“First of all we have to be honest: Tesla knocked on the door and shook up the industry,” he said. “It was a wake-up call.

Mr Stadler made it clear that he saw BMW and Mercedes as the competition, rather than Tesla. In part because of Tesla’s low production volumes, but more so because the US electric carmaker has not made an annual profit since it was founded in 2003. (...)"

This has been confirmed by Audi today:

• The event is postponed
• No comment on if the production start is on time

My take: they would have all reasons to announce that production is still on time despite the event date is later given the CEO turmoil. With that confirmation I believe we can count for at least some delay on the e-tron production start.

Also I doubt that all of this has anything to do with Stadler waiting in prison for his first date in the court room.

My assumption is that they hit some major road block(s) for instance in development or pre production or battery supply or capacity building and need more time to keep their promises. The CEO comment sounds more like an excuse to me.

Audi sagt "e-tron"-Premiere ab

 

[mongo]

Everybody, please give a warm welcome to the newest member of the #TeslaKillerCemetery!!

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

To be fair, the entire Audi Summit was cancelled, not just a car reveal. They may really have just delayed the meeting/ presentation due to the CEO issue.
If the September event in San Francisco is also canceled, well that's a corpse of a different color...

 

[electracity]

Depending on how they are counting, some cars need two drive units. 7k drive units could indicate 3k RWD and 2k P/D vehicle production.

Good point. Maybe there is heavy AWD interest from people who have been invited to configure yet have not done so. But the motor building suggests thousands of AWD M3 per week soon. That doesn't feel right.

 

[electracity]

Also how many drive units fail during testing? You don't want to run short of 5K run rate.

If they lack confidence in consistent build quality of the motors the last thing they would want to do is to have thousands of units of inventory.

 

[HG Wells]

Good point. Maybe there is heavy AWD interest from people who have been invited to configure yet have not done so. But the motor building suggests thousands of AWD M3 per week soon. That doesn't feel right.

If I have the capacity and orders to build AWD vs RWD guess which one I am going to build first ?