General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Bobfitz1]

OMG your beginning to think like me ~ watch yourself
I think in your thinking above, and based on all the pictures of pilled up cars waiting for delivery ~ come Sunday or beginning Sunday 1 July 2018 the delivered numbers will be off the charts due to the placement in staging areas (military term) and the increased capability of the assembly line (tent city), surge (another military term).
Bottom line, may I suggest you (me) get the hell out of the way an let the convoy through, otherwise be prepared to be run over by the bus. @Bobfitz1 I really like your thinking!

Thank you for the positive feedback @DragonWatch. Especially from someone whose postings are interesting and well thought out. I posted because for some time I've seen folks reference various future dates when Tesla may ramp to 10K, but they often seemed too conservative to me. Like end of 2019. Sure the problems which have slowed the hoped for M3 ramp curve have also pushed 10K out greatly. But it doesn't make sense to assume going from 5 to 10K is going to be plagued with as many problems as 0 to 5K. Anyone following Elon for some years knows that once M3 production has at last made Tesla profitable, he is going to stomp the accelerator again and surprise the skeptics by reaching 1 M volume faster than imagined by most.

 

[RobStark]

Why not use portions of the already permitted expansions for additional M3 assembly lines and eventually MY production?

Greater Reno has a limit on resources like water,education,housing,and workers.

GF2 should be producing at least 300 GWh of battery cells plus 700k MY per year.

 

[NicoV]

Link in Dutch, but it contains lots of data and graphs on how Belgium is making the (sudden) switch from diesel to gasoline (‘benzine’): Privacy settings

Some juicy numbers:
- 60% of the second hand buyers want gasoline, but only 20% of the second hand cars on sale are gasoline
- in 2015 a second hand diesel car was sold on average after 47 days, now this is 54 days
- so far the surplus of diesel cars could be sold in eastern europe, but that market gets saturated

Fyi, the first graph in the article of the distribution of registrations (new + second hand)
, the second is about new cars since 1991, the third about the instaaled base since 1996


The data shows a seismic shift from diesel to gasoline, which must have giant consequences for the traditional car vendors in terms of production capacity and maybe stranded production assets, while the second hand market shift may cause concerns whether the lease companies can sell their end-of-lease cars at the expected price (which may already have caused lease price increases for which I have already mentioned anecdotal evidence). Even without considering the sudden demand shifts caused by EVs, the diesel to gasoline shift in it’s own is already proving to be a big issue for the traditional car vendors.
Btw: the title of the article is ‘you can’t get rid of your diesel anymore, the second hand market doesn’t want it anymore’.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this afternoon: Tesla next-gen Roadster test driver: ‘Elon’s specs are conservative, it’s going to be a proper weapon’

 

[lklundin]

It would be fun to list all who have ended up at that cemetery so far.

Luckily, (self-proclaimed) automotive expert Anton Wahlman has prepared an extensive list to monitor for exactly that purpose:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4110738-tesla-100-percent-ev-market-share-0-percent-100-easy-steps

I think he did it with a different idea in mind but no one seems to care...

 

[lklundin]

Part to part variation in the main switching devices (20% nominal to max saturation voltage variation for comparable IGBT) leads to small variations in overall efficiency (electronics are pretty efficient to begin with), but large variations in heat generation in the motor drive circuitry (which then causes more losses due to parameter shift vs temperature). Motor variation (due to magnet variation, and other tolerances) is also an effect.

Can you maybe shed some light on how such testing on a motor with moving parts (as opposed to a purely semi-conductor product) can be non-destructive?

Thanks either way.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Greater Reno has a limit on resources like water,education,housing,and workers.
GF2 should be producing at least 300 GWh of battery cells plus 700k MY per year.

GF2 is Tesla's PV plant near Buffalo N.Y. I have not seen information to date about them also producing battery cells and cars there, nor how many per year. Can you post link(s) to your source? Thanks.

 

[DragonWatch]

Folks, I am trying to fight through the FUD as we all are either to encourage it or disprove it. When I first joined the army as Private Jeep, sergeants would impress us with their perspective clamming they were a private when "Jesus was a corporal." Before you attack me, that is the quote from the Vietnam era military. I would modify that to "I am older than dirt" today. Also, in basic our name tags where white instead of olive drab (OD) like real soldiers ~ with our heads shaved so bright, we were called maggots. My thoughts and stories are based on sixty-eight years of crap called life and I would say your best off not judging a book by its cover.

As a newly commissioned officer, butter bar, my wife called me a "broomstick cowboy." Please note that in our relationship, it is not what she calls me that you should worry about ~ trust me

While I have seen immediate growth of my large investments in and since 2013 ~ only one third in Tesla back then; I have seen my grown double and then receded to less than half of that investment. Today, well I am looking at working on the second double and figure or am aiming to live another thirty years. My wife's two grandmothers lived to 98 and 103, so I assume she will be around awhile. My father died within a week or so following his ninetieth birthday, whereupon opening his birthday card after three years of dementia exclaimed "I have never been that old before."

From another comment elsewhere, please wrap you head around this comment of mine. First, I am very excited as a very, very, very Long Tesla believer. And, if you are anywhere close to being like me, I am fully charged as we end 2Q18. But, keep in mind that as is frequently the case, there will be a pause in action following the 3 July 2018 production announcement (unless there is another date I am aware of ~ I have been known to be clueless). Go beyond the delay/pause of 4 July, it takes awhile to figure out the data, this especially applies to the days following the second quarter financial results. Between the hype, the staging (pics), and added tent city (assembly line) things could go through the roof. But, as a word of caution it will be like smoke and mirrors. If the buildup or staging was in fact to prolong the tax incentive, and the second Model 3 assembly line is producing as many as the first, we will not know the real clear picture until the end of 3Q18. So, be prepared, just sayin'

Please, to keep sanity in your life do not base your financial or other decisions on my thoughts ~ you life may depend on it

 

[Waiting4M3]

Benzinga - today: How EVs Are Forcing A Relationship Change Between OEMs, Energy Suppliers, Governments

The article seems to be misleading about plug compatibility

"In the EV world, Tesla’s vehicles are only compatible with Tesla plugs"

 

[mongo]

Can you maybe shed some light on how such testing on a motor with moving parts (as opposed to a purely semi-conductor product) can be non-destructive?

Thanks either way.

Connect drive unit to mechanical load (ideally a set of generators for efficiency), cooling system, and power supply (or instrumented pack). Start out at normal power level and measure electrical input power vs mechanical output power. Based on performance and internal temps, bump up power level, continue until efficiency/ power limit is reached. Could be done with a characterization step followed by (for high performers) a 2x burn in while monitoring for internal changes/ infant mortality.

The mechanical side can handle the high power level, the sorting is for electronics efficiency and build variance. Unless a switching part/ solder joint fails entirely, the DU will still function as a normal RWD/AWD type.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Creating thousands of extra unneeded drive unit per day is not happening. What may be true is that department is running well and is capable of that level of production. A fair assumption would be that current production planning is at about 7000 M3/week. That would put Fremont at about 450,000 cars per year, which seems about right for a plant that size. Of course Tesla plans to go past 450K in Fremont, but 450K is a good guess at normal full capacity which is a major milestone.

Some DUs may fail testing just due to defect, but I suspect not many. However, those potentially destined for Performance models may have a higher failure rate again beyond the basic testing for non-P models, perhaps even not just failing to be good enough for P but actually burning out during testing and being scrapped for parts/materials or sent to be rebuilt and set aside for repair parts.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Thank you for the positive feedback @DragonWatch. Especially from someone whose postings are interesting and well thought out. I posted because for some time I've seen folks reference various future dates when Tesla may ramp to 10K, but they often seemed too conservative to me. Like end of 2019. Sure the problems which have slowed the hoped for M3 ramp curve have also pushed 10K out greatly. But it doesn't make sense to assume going from 5 to 10K is going to be plagued with as many problems as 0 to 5K. Anyone following Elon for some years knows that once M3 production has at last made Tesla profitable, he is going to stomp the accelerator again and surprise the skeptics by reaching 1 M volume faster than imagined by most.

IMO a few factors will contribute to the a slower push to 10k/wk M3 target:

• shifting focus from break-neck debt-funded growth to slower but organic growth, starting in Elon's "no-capital-raise" statement in April and clarified in May conf call's update of lower CapEx for remaining 2018
• China GF looks like a go, which will lock up some CapEx, leaving a lower available CapEx for other projects
• MY unveil in March 2019 and production ramp, targeting to start in late 2019, I think bringing up My production will be a higher priority than ramping M3 to 10k, because
  • MY will likely address an even larger market than M3
  • SUVs are more popular in China so Tesla may target the synergy between China GF build-out and simultaneous MY ramp in China
    
  • spread out eggs in more basket (models) so Tesla can adjust more easily if demand landscape shift, for example, Tesla can maintain a M3 backlog and steer more buyers towards higher ASP M3

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Some DUs may fail testing just due to defect, but I suspect not many. However, those potentially destined for Performance models may have a higher failure rate again beyond the basic testing for non-P models, perhaps even not just failing to be good enough for P but actually burning out during testing and being scrapped for parts/materials or sent to be rebuilt and set aside for repair parts.

Destructive testing is for batch validation of materials like concrete and steel. That's not how you test for binning. In binning, you'll test for characteristics, like resistance, or inductance, or vibration levels at specific RPM's. It's more of a "failure to qualify for P3D duty" type of testing. Testing til damage is a poor method of testing production parts.

 

[avoigt]

Some more details about the e-tron launch postponement

“The e-tron will have its market launch at the end of the year. Nothing has changed,” a spokeswoman for Audi told Automotive News Europe.

Audi is already taking orders for the e-tron in some western European markets, and said in May that it had received around 5,500 advance orders from customers in Norway and the Netherlands. The price of the e-tron starts at US$93,400 (80,000 euro) in Germany.

Audi Cancels Europe Launch Of Tesla Rival | OilPrice.com

 

[kbM3]

A related question for production growth past 10K is this: The Nevada GF1 is already producing motors and battery packs for the M3. Tesla has said it will continue to grow larger for the next 3 - 4 years. Why not use portions of the already permitted expansions for additional M3 assembly lines and eventually MY production? Yes, that would require greatly increasing material transport from San Francisco to Tahoe Reno Industrial Center. That is 230 miles and once the initial run of Semi is available, they will be able to demonstrate multiple Semi convoys. The biggest obstacle I can think of would be procuring a new set of sheet metal stampers. I would expect they have either signed to purchase those from a closed U.S. auto factory, or ordered a new set one or two years ago. No doubt there will be other challenges, but Tesla's core strength is overcoming challenges creatively and fast.

Tesla wants to determine which sub lines can be sped up vs. which ones need to be duplicated so that they can be the most capital efficient.

Basically, optimize the lines fully before expansion.

 

[NicoV]

The article seems to be misleading about plug compatibility

"In the EV world, Tesla’s vehicles are only compatible with Tesla plugs"

Even if it was true, it wouldn’t mean anything. Just look at Apple.

 

[Earlian]

Well, while the Tesla Charging network is the best and most reliable, why should a Tesla owner care about the plug compatibility?

 

[riverFox]

Seems to be a uptick in VIN assignments and 'Edit Buttons' disappearing this afternoon. The floodgates may be opening...

 

[Todd Burch]

Did I miss discussion of this Elon Tweet from a day ago? I don’t remember anyone mentioning it:

 

[ggies07]

I just signed in again and now I'm able to select the performance version, but my "late '18" for SR version is gone and now it says "6-9 months"......are you ****ing kidding me!?!

Technically I could still be in the 'late 18' group as the '6th month', but man, they are really pushing it by changing it with that much wiggle room.....I'm starting to become depressed and disillusioned......we shall see.....