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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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** JPM note on meeting cites Tesla head of investment relations Aaron Chew as saying Model 3 production will reach 1,000 per week in January, up from Q4.

** Chew also promises main production bottleneck has been solved and says Tesla has cash to see it through launch as long as Model 3 hits 5,000 units a week by end of Q2.

This matches with my prior calculations that Tesla had enough cash to get through to the end of June even with insignificant Model 3 production -- so this is good confirmation. In practice they will be producing 2500 before they produce 5000, and they bought themselves a little wiggle room with the semi & Roadster reservation money, so I think they would actually not run out of cash even if was delayed a little past end of Q2. Of course, it will hopefully happen long before then.
 
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CBS Los Angeles runs segment on Falcon Wing Door problemes. One X owner says in for repairs 4x. He says he has had the the car for 5 days while Tesla Service Center has had it for 30. Ask local CBS consumer advocate for help.

2 On Your Side: Some Owners Say Tesla Model X Needs Too Many Repairs For Six-Figure Price


I really hope they skip FWD for Model Y.
I thought California had some lemon buy back law that would have applied at 4 services for the same issue?

Edit: If they can fix the FWD issues, I would love it on my Model Y. If they can’t, then I agree. How pervasive are the issues with FWD?
 
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This is completely idiotic on the part of the California decision-makers at Tesla, who apparently can't read a map. More and more Long Island locations and nothing upstate?

Also there's no cap on service center locations, only on sales locations.

Tesla does not need any change in state law to build service centers upstate. And it's idiotic to have five locations downstate and nothing upstate.
Not as many Beach houses on lake Ontario in Webster NY, nor reality TV shows. Just reality of snow drifts that come up to the garage height... Much like the lorax, I speak for the snow...
 
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This is completely idiotic on the part of the California decision-makers at Tesla, who apparently can't read a map. More and more Long Island locations and nothing upstate?

Also there's no cap on service center locations, only on sales locations.

Tesla does not need any change in state law to build service centers upstate. And it's idiotic to have five locations downstate and nothing upstate.

I have to disagree. Need to put service centers where sales are. If unable to market because State limits the sales model, then the state legislature is the issue. I went to school at Cornell, great area. Always thought it funny that any area 10 miles north of New York City (or as New York residents say “the city”) is called upstate. Haven’t lived in New York for 35 years but back then ask any New Yorker how many pro football teams in New York and they would say 2 ignoring buffalo bills.
 
No issues with our FWD in the first month of ownership, not even a false sensor read. I don't however expect them to be flawless indefinitely, will be the first car I spend money on extended warranty.

Edit: correction, I forgot info have a seal that needs adjusting that is allowing water to spill into back seat when raining on opening. Easy fix.
 
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No issues with our FWD in the first month of ownership, not even a false sensor read. I don't however expect them to be flawless indefinitely, will be the first car I spend money on extended warranty.

Edit: correction, I forgot info have a seal that needs adjusting that is allowing water to spill into back seat when raining on opening. Easy fix.

No issues in over a year with fwd. Odd that issues seemed to get much better then just recently, based on the CBS article, there has been a rash of issues. I think fwd are cool as hell but not worth the risk if they aren't confident they can be reliable. The problem is, they won't know for many years how durable and how reliable they are long term.
 
Anybody know where publications might get this info :

“ For the year through December 2016, Tesla's inventory turnover period was 139 days. “
Tesla production delays raise doubts on its finances - Nikkei Asian Review

Are they just making this up ? Are they counting cars used for service and demos ?

I have a hard time believing this is correct, no source mentioned and picked up (and spread immidiatly by the usuall Tesla haters. ( like the two B.S.-ers, namely Mark B. S. and B. Schmitt)
 
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I wondered about the Tesla inventory turnover too - they quote it as though Tesla is trailing the competition on this! it seem ridiculous, unless they are only considering Tesla inventory vehicles (i.e. completely ignoring custom order vehicles), which would make it meaningless comparison to competitors.
 
I thought California had some lemon buy back law that would have applied at 4 services for the same issue?

Edit: If they can fix the FWD issues, I would love it on my Model Y. If they can’t, then I agree. How pervasive are the issues with FWD?

"Dealers" have 3 chances to fix a problem before Manufacture can be compelled to buy back the car or replace the car. Obviously, owner likes the car and just wants it to work.

I think most middle class folks are going to be worried about fixing FWD on Model Y AFTER warranty. 5,10,15 years down the line. We won't have that data for 15 years. Much rather have standard doors and not worry about it.
 
If they can fix the FWD issues, I would love it on my Model Y. If they can’t, then I agree. How pervasive are the issues with FWD?

No issue for us. They got aligned a bit in a service enter visit when we picked it up in May 2016, but have been great and I would not want anything less than the FWD as they are. We put 37k miles on the car so far.
 
Anybody know where publications might get this info :

“ For the year through December 2016, Tesla's inventory turnover period was 139 days. “
Tesla production delays raise doubts on its finances - Nikkei Asian Review

Are they just making this up ? Are they counting cars used for service and demos ?

I have a hard time believing this is correct, no source mentioned and picked up (and spread immidiatly by the usuall Tesla haters. ( like the two B.S.-ers, namely Mark B. S. and B. Schmitt)
I wondered about the Tesla inventory turnover too - they quote it as though Tesla is trailing the competition on this! it seem ridiculous, unless they are only considering Tesla inventory vehicles (i.e. completely ignoring custom order vehicles), which would make it meaningless comparison to competitors.

Indeed, it is total nonsense when the article's author compares such a meaningless Tesla inventory turnover period to supposedly much lesser times for cars made by other manufacturers. The author appears totally unfamiliar with the Tesla sales process, yet he writes for a worldwide audience as a supposed authority. I suspect that some FUDsters fed him "information", and he published it uncritically.

The crux of the article's financial argument appeared to be the average number of days for a car to remain in inventory. Unlike with other automakers, the vast majority of Tesla cars are made to order for individual consumers and don't sit in inventory. Tesla's "inventory" cars are mainly service loaners, test ride cars and display cars. Eventually they are sold. The article's comparison of that time spent in inventory to that of cars made by other manufacturers sitting in the lots of franchised dealerships while waiting for consumers to buy is ludicrous. What should be considered for the average time in inventory is the negligible number of days that a Tesla car ordered by a consumer spends from factory to home. Meanwhile, over a half million people are waiting for the ability to order and configure the Model 3's they have reserved with $1000 deposits.

A link to the Benzinga headline notice of the article initially appeared in the Tesla news section of my TD Ameritrade account. At Benzinga I added the comment seen in the paragraph above. Someone at TD Ameritrade may have seen my comment, as the silly headline was soon removed from their news items.

I'm aghast at the state of financial reporting since I retired from the business.
 
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I have to disagree. Need to put service centers where sales are. If unable to market because State limits the sales model, then the state legislature is the issue. I went to school at Cornell, great area. Always thought it funny that any area 10 miles north of New York City (or as New York residents say “the city”) is called upstate. Haven’t lived in New York for 35 years but back then ask any New Yorker how many pro football teams in New York and they would say 2 ignoring buffalo bills.

Yes, put service centers "where" sales are. But if all your stores are in one area, and people in the rest of the state buy/test drive/etc cars there because they have no other options, then "where" your sales are is not the same as "where" you stores are. It's one thing to put up with a trip to go buy a car (many do this already with traditional OEMs, simply because they're cross shopping multiple dealerships looking for the best deal), another to do so for service. And yes, these people could simply order online, and maybe they aren't ordering online anywhere but Long Island so that's the only place getting new locations, but this may be a chicken and egg issue - if sales are lower where there are no service centers, perhaps they need to build some so that prospective buyers will actually purchase, as ease of servicing is a legitimate concern when buying a vehicle.
 
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US News reporting on Navigant Research study finding Tesla last of 19 companies looked at re developing autonomous driving (previously reported elsewhere).

https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/articles/2018-01-18/tesla-inc-tsla-stock

Looks like a new narrative that will be repeated. We may see an analyst come out with a rebuttal. If this narrative does get replayed considerably, I wouldn’t be surprised if Elon has some (entertaining) words to say about it on the next earnings call in 3 weeks.

Haven’t seen the study, but ranking Tesla last of 19 companies raises more than a little suspicion re the nature/purpose of this study.

Who knows re this study, but, another research group, CNW Marketing Research, famously found that a Hummer is more efficient on a lifetime cost per mile than a Prius.

Described in “controversy” section below

CNW Marketing Research - Wikipedia
 
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Yes, put service centers "where" sales are. But if all your stores are in one area, and people in the rest of the state buy/test drive/etc cars there because they have no other options, then "where" your sales are is not the same as "where" you stores are. It's one thing to put up with a trip to go buy a car (many do this already with traditional OEMs, simply because they're cross shopping multiple dealerships looking for the best deal), another to do so for service. And yes, these people could simply order online, and maybe they aren't ordering online anywhere but Long Island so that's the only place getting new locations, but this may be a chicken and egg issue - if sales are lower where there are no service centers, perhaps they need to build some so that prospective buyers will actually purchase, as ease of servicing is a legitimate concern when buying a vehicle.
The lack of Service Centers will bite Tesla in the butt when competitors offer EVs and sell/support them through the dealer networks. Building all the needed Centers will be a very expensive proposition (that I don't see mentioned when people talk of profitability).
 
The lack of Service Centers will bite Tesla in the butt when competitors offer EVs and sell/support them through the dealer networks. Building all the needed Centers will be a very expensive proposition (that I don't see mentioned when people talk of profitability).

Tesla's plan is to use Mobile Service (Rangers) for all things that do not require a lift.
Details here
 
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