General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Just saw my first model 3 live and in person at the highland Park service center in Chicago. Couldn't get any shots cuz it drove past me into the building, probably to be detailed and delivered. Gonna try to do some Ninja stuff and find the VIN. Wish me luck and someone bail me out if it comes to that.. Ok?

Edit: so close to talking the guy into waking me back into the delivery area, then one of the many lovely ladies of highland Park stopped him. There are two here for delivery to non employees is all the info I could get. Grey with 18" wheels and a blue one I couldn't see.

 

[Runarbt]

Just saw my first model 3 live and in person at the highland Park service center in Chicago. Couldn't get any shots cuz it drove past me into the building, probably to be detailed and delivered. Gonna try to do some Ninja stuff and find the VIN. Wish me luck and someone bail me out if it comes to that.. Ok?

we got ur back!

 

[Richgoogol]

we got ur back!

Under the condition that you come back with the VIN, otherwise....

 

[Gerardf]

I think the shorts are feeling bolder than ever. TSLA is approaching 350 again, and all the major automakers are announcing huge investments into EVs with lots of models in the future.
<snap>

And look at the result :
Ford announced 11B EV investment promissing to develop many EV’s with that money. Ford stock down 7% today.

Other than the shareholders Tesla has, Ford shareholders do not seem to like long term investments in EV technology, the want quick return, dividents etc. Now they see these investments hit the 2018 earnings forcast.

I guess these shareholders also understand very well that these EV’s will initially mainly compete with Fords own (higher margin) ICE products, and that (unlike Tesla’s investments) this 11B will not bring additional market share or profits.

What ICE company will be next to see this effecton their share price ? BMW ? GM ?

 

[bdy0627]

Yes IIRC Jonas said that TSLA can hit $400 on M3 in 1H'18, then as 2H'18 CapEx looms, it could drop back down to $200. That scenario doesn't seem to jive with his estimate of 8k in Q1, at least to me. If on 4/3, Tesla says they only produced 8k in Q1, especially after Tesla already delaying the 5k/wk target twice, I think the PPS will be depressed throughout Q2'18, and won't recover until at least July, so I don't see when TSLA could hit that $400 Jonas target in 1H'18, if the M3 delivery hits his Q1 8k target.

Yeah, it's a good point. I don't see how his production numbers correlate very well with his stock price guesses. We would certainly expect his Q1 number, if accurate, to result in a drop in the share price for sure. His Q2 estimate is 24,000, so maybe he is guessing that the stock would rebound hard on the improved ramp in Q2? Or, maybe he has changed his numbers so much even he can't keep them straight. Tesla may be guilty of that too.

 

[bdy0627]

Just saw my first model 3 live and in person at the highland Park service center in Chicago. Couldn't get any shots cuz it drove past me into the building, probably to be detailed and delivered. Gonna try to do some Ninja stuff and find the VIN. Wish me luck and someone bail me out if it comes to that.. Ok?

Edit: so close to talking the guy into waking me back into the delivery area, then one of the many lovely ladies of highland Park stopped him. There are two here for delivery to non employees is all the info I could get. Grey with 18" wheels and a blue one I couldn't see.

Ninja, eh? Sure, I could bail you out since I'm just a few hours north of there.

 

[bdy0627]

Just saw my first model 3 live and in person at the highland Park service center in Chicago. Couldn't get any shots cuz it drove past me into the building, probably to be detailed and delivered. Gonna try to do some Ninja stuff and find the VIN. Wish me luck and someone bail me out if it comes to that.. Ok?

Edit: so close to talking the guy into waking me back into the delivery area, then one of the many lovely ladies of highland Park stopped him. There are two here for delivery to non employees is all the info I could get. Grey with 18" wheels and a blue one I couldn't see.

Glad to know they have hit the midwest finally!

 

[Curt Renz]

Ninja, eh? Sure, I could bail you out since I'm just a few hours north of there.

I was in the queue at that Highland Park, Illinois store on 2016 MAR 31. The two people on either side of me were both from Wisconsin, where there are no Tesla stores due to state law. You might want to use your influence to get that situation fixed.

 

[elasalle]

Just saw my first model 3 live and in person at the highland Park service center in Chicago. Couldn't get any shots cuz it drove past me into the building, probably to be detailed and delivered. Gonna try to do some Ninja stuff and find the VIN. Wish me luck and someone bail me out if it comes to that.. Ok?

Edit: so close to talking the guy into waking me back into the delivery area, then one of the many lovely ladies of highland Park stopped him. There are two here for delivery to non employees is all the info I could get. Grey with 18" wheels and a blue one I couldn't see.

Please be sure to immediately post the VINs... not sure how long it takes to set your bail
Good Luck

 

[Menifeer]

...
Is the Chevy Bolt having trouble keeping up with demand?

Last summer the three dealers near me had many of them on their lots. None today.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Model 3s have been trickling to Atlanta up until now. Today apparently 4 were being delivered and another 6 showed up on a truck. Several people there expecting delivery soon have VINs in the 4xxx range.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Just saw a M3 parked in a driveway within 1/2 mile of me, I guess my hope of being the "1st on the block" is now dashed. BTW it's an older blue-collar neighborhood, where <5% of cars are foreign luxury brand.

I also dropped off my 2004 Prius at a local repair shop that work with Farmers, Geico, etc. The driver that drove me home said that he used to work at Tesla, and this repair shop is working on getting certified with Tesla.

It's all happening!!!

 

[DragonWatch]

I'm seeing 18 S and no X on the Tesla site and about 90+ on the consolidator sites.

Damned net neutrality rules I did not search beyond the Tesla site, but just checked again for new and used inventory and only get the click to order a model. Now they may pop one up like you are ordering, but they used to have lines of three times several rows:-( and I am not seeing that setup now.

Probably my new iPad, and the net neutrality rules If only Tesla made iPads the world would be a better place

 

[aubreymcfato]

Didn't see this post here yet:
Tesla loses one of its most senior engineers and director of manufacturing

 

[Ugliest1]

I believe you, but it's not a particularly good supporting argument for an EV. I have the option to stop and rest for as long as I want while traveling in an ICE, but I also have the option to get back on the road after a very short refuel. This issue will be resolved over time as faster charging becomes available, but recharging is a disadvantage in today's world.

I look at 'arriving refreshed' as a side benefit, not a primary supporting argument for using an EV a Tesla (Tesla being distinct for road trips because of supercharging, unavailable to any other make as yet). All the driving benefits are the primary supporting arguments, and trying to describe the feeling driving an EV is like trying to describe what it's like to have kids to someone who doesn't . Instant torque at any speed, plenty of pure smooth acceleration with no shift delays, regenerative braking aka one-pedal driving, no engine vibration or noise... either free fuel or fuel at 20-25% the cost of gasoline -- these may not seem like great benefits but believe me, put them all together and what you get is JOY.

Analytically, the current initial financial outlay (and charging "delays" on a trip) may not seem the best on paper, but the pure joy of driving cannot be matched by any normal ICE. You may be able to have the option of an actual rest stop in an ICE, but how often do you actually do it? I'll absolutely take the advantages of pure driving joy and arriving refreshed over getting there an hour earlier at the end of a day. YMMV -- however I will be interested to hear your comments after you've had the Model 3 for a few months. And yes, there are some use cases where an ICE would "win" hands down.

 

[SteveG3]

from a post in the Model 3 forum,

Tesla Stock Options Traders Target Key Level Ahead of Expiration

“... TESLA STOCK JUMPS ON MODEL 3 PRODUCTION BUZZ
Tesla stock was trading near its highest levels since late October earlier -- topping out at $349 -- after JPM reported on the company's private investor meeting at the Detroit Auto Show. The brokerage firm said TSLA's head of investment relations indicated Model 3 production will reach 1,000 cars per week this month -- an increase from fourth-quarter numbers, with the recent bottleneck issues resolved....”


a little more detail from Reuters,

“...
** JPM note on meeting cites Tesla head of investment relations Aaron Chew as saying Model 3 production will reach 1,000 per week in January, up from Q4.

** Chew also promises main production bottleneck has been solved and says Tesla has cash to see it through launch as long as Model 3 hits 5,000 units a week by end of Q2.

** Reuters has not heard or seen a copy of the presentation which was given at a private meeting with investors organized by Deutsche Bank...”

 

[Crowded Mind]

Sounds like Tesla just opened up Model 3 configurations to some more people. Limited reports so far and not sure if an email has gone out, so check your MyTesla page.

 

[SteveG3]

Sounds like Tesla just opened up Model 3 configurations to some more people. Limited reports so far and not sure if an email has gone out, so check your MyTesla page.

I can give first hand confirmation new invitations have gone out : ) !!!

 

[bobinfla]

I can give first hand confirmation new invitations have gone out : ) !!!

I can second that! Woo Hoo!

 

[Crowded Mind]

I can give first hand confirmation new invitations have gone out : ) !!!

I can second that! Woo Hoo!

Did you get emails or just check on MyTesla?