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We don't know who supplies what, including the IP. I expect negotiating the proprietary aspects of cell revisions is tricky. Panasonic obviously brings a lot of knowledge into cell formulation and isn't going to have its hand tied when seeking other business. Tesla wants to keep its trade secrets private.
The fact that no other major EV manufacturer is using cylinders is probably helpful in both parties preserving trade secrets.
We also don't know how well the Tesla part of the gigafactory is running. Tesla is going to capitalize pack making problems as R&D and only pass nice clean costs into the gross margin calculation of the model 3.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Nissan is back to make.. or atleast they are no longer selling their battery company.
I feel Elon Musk is going through a big change lately - a transition from overpromising to underpromising timelines.
I believe this is deliberate. As in, his actions to overpromise timelines were for the good for the company. But now, underpromising timelines will do more good for the company.
Historically, Tesla has always been optimistic of its timelines. I would argue that this has been one of the reasons to the success of Tesla. When trying to disrupt an industry with a ~100 year head start, this takes time. However, most people are impatient. If Tesla came out with a realistic timeline, far fewer people would have jumped on board the Tesla/electric car train. Even though what Tesla is promising is absolutely amazing, people will think it takes too long, they won't make it that long, lose interest, hope, etc etc. Tesla would have attracted far fewer fans had it not exaggerated on the timelines.
Therefore, in order to get traction, and the fervor of supporters, Tesla had to provide them with reasonable hope, and that is from optimistic deadlines. Tesla first reeled people in with an amazing product (the Roadster) and futuristic plan (the Master Plan). Then Tesla took advantage of the sunk cost fallacy that most humans have to keep the support going as it runs into delay after delay.
*It's only 6 months more, then the amazing Roadster will be released!* (repeated 5 times)
This is the hardest part, a new company with no previous product, and no previous history. Tesla had to pull this trick in order to prove itself. Now, having proven itself to have made an amazing car, the next huge hurdle is to prove that it isn't just a boutique carmaker and can make an amazing sedan. Again, Tesla needed to keep the supporters at the edge of their seats to get them over and grow their fanbase.
Now, the ultimate challenge for Tesla is to be able to make a low cost car, AND mass manufacture it. That is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY HARD, squared! But the expectation is that Tesla needs to do this fast, which is impossible. Therefore, it needed to use optimistic deadlines again to really grow the Tesla fanbase about the exciting possibilities of an "affordable" high performance electric car. Without that, they wouldn't have been able to get half a million preorders to buy a car unseen, and won't be delivered for 2 years. 2 years is already stretching it. If Tesla quoted the realistic timeline of 4 years, would there be anywhere near the number of preorders?
But now, they're faced with the daunting challenge of dramatically scaling production. This is extremely capital intensive. This constant failure to meet deadlines becomes a difficult sell when raising capital for factory expansions. Wall Street needs to see that Tesla can do what they claim. This is not only important for finances, but for B2B sales like the Tesla Semi. At this point, they have enough fanfare, but being optimistic and failing to hit targets will hurt the future growth of the company by reducing its ability to leverage and grow.
This is why we are seeing much more conservative timelines. Elon has achieved the 5k/week by Q2 2018 goal. He is being really serious in achieving profitability in Q3, which I fully expect to happen given the margins and production rate. In addition, 10k/week is moved from late 2018 to mid 2019. Shanghai factory will take 5 years to scale to 500k units.
The last point is worth noting. Does anyone really think a country known for its ability to build infrastructure extremely quickly (57 storey skyscraper in 19 days, 1500 engineers build train station in 9 hours) is gonna take 2-3 years to construct a factory? Or that they will learn nothing from Fremont and still take 2 years to ramp up to 500k units, the same amount of time it will take them to get their first factory to 500k?
This is Elon planning to beat the timeline, not a little, but by a LOT. Another reason could be speculated that Elon is trying to turn his constant lateness into an advantage: they will bluff competitors on how long Tesla will take to scale, which will ease their haste, leaving them in a much worse off position when Tesla completes the Shanghai factory in 2-3 years ahead of schedule. Tesla will be in an even stronger position with their competitors off guard, thinking Elon is still going on the old "Elon time", and will be late as always, while Elon is actually shifting the EV party start time earlier to make everyone else more and more late to the party.
I believe this is deliberate. As in, his actions to overpromise timelines were for the good for the company. But now, underpromising timelines will do more good for the company.
Historically, Tesla has always been optimistic of its timelines. I would argue that this has been one of the reasons to the success of Tesla. When trying to disrupt an industry with a ~100 year head start, this takes time. However, most people are impatient. If Tesla came out with a realistic timeline, far fewer people would have jumped on board the Tesla/electric car train. Even though what Tesla is promising is absolutely amazing, people will think it takes too long, they won't make it that long, lose interest, hope, etc etc. Tesla would have attracted far fewer fans had it not exaggerated on the timelines.
Therefore, in order to get traction, and the fervor of supporters, Tesla had to provide them with reasonable hope, and that is from optimistic deadlines. Tesla first reeled people in with an amazing product (the Roadster) and futuristic plan (the Master Plan). Then Tesla took advantage of the sunk cost fallacy that most humans have to keep the support going as it runs into delay after delay.
*It's only 6 months more, then the amazing Roadster will be released!* (repeated 5 times)
This is the hardest part, a new company with no previous product, and no previous history. Tesla had to pull this trick in order to prove itself. Now, having proven itself to have made an amazing car, the next huge hurdle is to prove that it isn't just a boutique carmaker and can make an amazing sedan. Again, Tesla needed to keep the supporters at the edge of their seats to get them over and grow their fanbase.
Now, the ultimate challenge for Tesla is to be able to make a low cost car, AND mass manufacture it. That is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY HARD, squared! But the expectation is that Tesla needs to do this fast, which is impossible. Therefore, it needed to use optimistic deadlines again to really grow the Tesla fanbase about the exciting possibilities of an "affordable" high performance electric car. Without that, they wouldn't have been able to get half a million preorders to buy a car unseen, and won't be delivered for 2 years. 2 years is already stretching it. If Tesla quoted the realistic timeline of 4 years, would there be anywhere near the number of preorders?
But now, they're faced with the daunting challenge of dramatically scaling production. This is extremely capital intensive. This constant failure to meet deadlines becomes a difficult sell when raising capital for factory expansions. Wall Street needs to see that Tesla can do what they claim. This is not only important for finances, but for B2B sales like the Tesla Semi. At this point, they have enough fanfare, but being optimistic and failing to hit targets will hurt the future growth of the company by reducing its ability to leverage and grow.
This is why we are seeing much more conservative timelines. Elon has achieved the 5k/week by Q2 2018 goal. He is being really serious in achieving profitability in Q3, which I fully expect to happen given the margins and production rate. In addition, 10k/week is moved from late 2018 to mid 2019. Shanghai factory will take 5 years to scale to 500k units.
The last point is worth noting. Does anyone really think a country known for its ability to build infrastructure extremely quickly (57 storey skyscraper in 19 days, 1500 engineers build train station in 9 hours) is gonna take 2-3 years to construct a factory? Or that they will learn nothing from Fremont and still take 2 years to ramp up to 500k units, the same amount of time it will take them to get their first factory to 500k?
This is Elon planning to beat the timeline, not a little, but by a LOT. Another reason could be speculated that Elon is trying to turn his constant lateness into an advantage: they will bluff competitors on how long Tesla will take to scale, which will ease their haste, leaving them in a much worse off position when Tesla completes the Shanghai factory in 2-3 years ahead of schedule. Tesla will be in an even stronger position with their competitors off guard, thinking Elon is still going on the old "Elon time", and will be late as always, while Elon is actually shifting the EV party start time earlier to make everyone else more and more late to the party.
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He really underpromised that 3 week short position explosion didn’t he.
Defining whether Tesla is make vs buy requires philosophical discussions on the nature of ... whatever. They "own the factory" and lease out sections to Panasonic, but Panasonic runs (and I believe owns) the equipment inside - which is the actual "factory" as far as individual cells are concerned. Though some of the machinery may have been designed in tandem with Tesla, so even the Panasonic run machinery may partially belong to Tesla - I'm not sure about this. The actual cells are arguably being built by Panasonic for Tesla so there's an argument to made that even though they "own the factory" they don't "own the factory" and are buying rather than making, but they did invest into the costs required to build the production facility and not just a contract to purchase, so they don't buy in the same sense that say, GM buys from LG, or really anyone else other than perhaps Nissan does.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
You don't charge at home ?
You live 2 miles outside Texas. You leave the house with a full charge. After driving 300 miles you stop for your first charge, drive 300 more and charge again. Then you exit Texas after driving 300 more.
Total miles driven 900!
Always be an optimist!
Except when reading the Shortsville Times. Then you can be a fatalist.
Tesla Model 3: Hat sich Elon Musk verkalkuliert?
web front article of one of Germany's biggest newspapers. Core statements:
web front article of one of Germany's biggest newspapers. Core statements:
- Those who reserved an M3 early now get it faster than previously announced
- If you order an M3 now, you can get it within 1-3 months
- it would take more than 1 year to actually work through the backlog of 400k reservations; but since the lead time is now so much lower, it follows that:
- much fewer of the 400k reservations have converted into actual orders than anticipated
- with every shipped M3, the spread between production capacity and demand increases.
Ran into this FUD piece Why Are All Those Tesla Cars Baking In The Sun? - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha (M Septic ). Shorts have a newly formed "Shorty Air Force" with logo and all.
However if you are blind you can't really see ...
Reciprocity
Active Member
If they want to hang their hats on two shipping logistics lots holding 3 days worth of production as an issue that so be it. Its not easy moving 7k vehicles per week when you only every moved 2500/w before the end of last month. The short thesis is all made up conjecture. The cars have no buyers and Tesla just built them to meet a production goal for untold reasons? To survive another month? Who knows. Or all the cars need rework, so lets ship them some place they cant be worked on. Makes even more sense. Or it just could be logistical lots for shipping to the rest of the country. Nah. Must be the other two.
oops <blush>
you are correct. I have done I-10 twice, and its a "go as fast as you can without getting a ticket" (got one once) Open letter to Tesla regarding the inventory crisis.
Dear Tesla,
I currently have room for a Model 3 in my garage. One that I have essentially prepurchased. If you could kindly move just one of your excess Model 3’s to my garage, that would be one more unwanted Model 3 that would be off the streets.
Together we can make a difference. I am waiting on a VIN and a phone call.
A concerned customer,
Dear Tesla,
I currently have room for a Model 3 in my garage. One that I have essentially prepurchased. If you could kindly move just one of your excess Model 3’s to my garage, that would be one more unwanted Model 3 that would be off the streets.
Together we can make a difference. I am waiting on a VIN and a phone call.
A concerned customer,
I quantified it a while ago, but I've totally forgotten. I'll try again.
The biggest S&P index fund is about $266 billion, and the others sum up to about the same amount; closet indexers may double that or may not, so let's assume not.
$266 billion * 2 / $23 trillion S&P market cap = 2.3% (maybe 4.6% if you include closet indexers)
S&P is market cap weighted, so the percentage of Tesla shares the funds have to buy is about that percentage of Tesla's market cap. So 2.3% - 4.6% of the shares. Less than the Tencent purchase, but significant.
The ownership advisors told me that Model 3 test drives must be scheduled in advance either by phone or through the website. When I spoke with them yesterday they said they were fully booked for that day and were accepting requests for the coming week. Test drives are scheduled in 30-minute blocks. Note that in Illinois auto dealers including Tesla are closed on Sundays.
When I test drove a Model S in Highland Park over two years ago, I just showed up. I imagine that will eventually be fine for the Model 3, but not right now.
Holy hell. Is Maureen Callahan - Mark Spiegel in a wig?
https://nypost.com/2018/07/21/elon-musk-is-a-total-fraud/
https://nypost.com/2018/07/21/elon-musk-is-a-total-fraud/
Mark Spiegel in a wig said:
Krugerrand
Meow
I’m not clicking the link for love nor money. Feel free to paraphrase her points that allow her to come to such a ridiculous and false conclusion.
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