General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[winfield100]

Tesla does own a battery factory. Just because they have a partner doesn't mean they don't own anything.

You basically made my point. Chemistry is not a moat and even GM can design their own. But no one can supply enough cells at a cost to make it profitable.. hence the moat created by the scale of the gigafactory. Not the battery chemistry.

The battery chemistry is nice and will change over time, the moat for now is their factory (scale and automation).

i realize i'm preaching to the choir, but,
i think it may bear emphasizing, the Model 3 has 4,416, 2170 formfactor batteries.
at 5,000 vehicles _per week_ that's
4,416 * 5,000 = 22,080,000 or -->>22 MILLION batteries every week or ->574,000,000 batteries by end of year.
5,000 * 75kW * 26 weeks = around 10 gigawatts just for model 3 in just ->1/2 year
Tesla Model 3 battery details revealed in partial teardown and analysis
(I really want my powerwall here in SW Florida so my refrig doesnt go down, again and spoil $500-$800 worth of food)(and my PV)

 

[elasalle]

Behind The Wheel of the Tesla Model 3 Performance Vehicle .. Dan Neil (video) interview ..not sure if posted here , so just cross posting .. more gems here in addition to the article ...

 

[electracity]

Tesla does own a battery factory. Just because they have a partner doesn't mean they don't own anything.

You basically made my point. Chemistry is not a moat and even GM can design their own. But no one can supply enough cells at a cost to make it profitable.. hence the moat created by the scale of the gigafactory. Not the battery chemistry.

The battery chemistry is nice and will change over time, the moat for now is there factory (scale and automation).

Cells are just another supply chain item. Tesla had to jump through hoops to derisk Panasonic enough to obtain the volume their production plans required. Tesla, BYD, and possibly Nissan have production plans to build EVs at the rate of hundreds of thousands so they have arranged their supply chain accordingly. Most other have organized their supply chain to produce EVs at the rate of tens of thousands.

For everything in a car, including cells, make vs buy is a supply chain decision. Tesla decided to buy. BYD decided to make. Nissan has switched from make to buy.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So is no one going to discuss Tesla raised base prices for Gen II vehicles today?

Lots of premium package features now standard.

Base price Model S in USA is now $77k and Model X $83k.

Many have argued to cut base price and expand production over 100k units per year.

I argued raise prices and features and move Gen II up market.

On this one it seems Elon agrees with me. Not always the case.

BTW JP Morgan,Merrill Lynch et al are probably correct. When demand is softening you raise prices.

I just checked what my Model S 100D would cost now. Back in December, 2017 it was $114,500. Now it's $110,800! Of course they've added this yearly subscription thing on the downside. But they've got a faster MCU on the upside. In any case, I think Tesla continues to heading toward better for less money.

 

[winfield100]

Cells are just another supply chain item. Tesla had to jump through hoops to derisk Panasonic enough to obtain the volume their production plans required. Tesla, BYD, and possibly Nissan have production plans to build EVs at the rate of hundreds of thousands so they have arranged their supply chain accordingly. Most other have organized their supply chain to produce EVs at the rate of tens of thousands.

For everything in a car, including cells, make vs buy is a supply chain decision. Tesla decided to buy. BYD decided to make. Nissan has switched from make to buy.

seriously, are you saying Tesla is buying the 22,000,000, 2170 batteries for the Model 3 needed per week? ??what are they making at the gigafactory???
IF you call internal accounting perhaps, where one part of the company "buys" from another part of the company, unless you are "splitting hares"

 

[MartinAustin]

Marchionne has left FCA.

Hopefully this will trigger BEV-ification for them since Marchionne was such a stick in the mud.
Phil LeBeau on Twitter

 

[22522]

Behind The Wheel of the Tesla Model 3 Performance Vehicle .. Dan Neil (video) interview ..not sure if posted here , so just cross posting .. more gems here in addition to the article ...

This is a good find I had not seen before. Thank you.

I must be mis calibrated on the tires... The stock tires are great for street tires.
https://www.tirerack.com/tires/tests/chartDisplay.jsp?ttid=223

 

[Krugerrand]

Cells are just another supply chain item. Tesla had to jump through hoops to derisk Panasonic enough to obtain the volume their production plans required. Tesla, BYD, and possibly Nissan have production plans to build EVs at the rate of hundreds of thousands so they have arranged their supply chain accordingly. Most other have organized their supply chain to produce EVs at the rate of tens of thousands.

Can you explain what you mean by Tesla had to jump through hoops to derisk Panasonic enough to obtain the volume their production plans required?

 

[EVMeister]

I just checked what my Model S 100D would cost now. Back in December, 2017 it was $114,500. Now it's $110,800! Of course they've added this yearly subscription thing on the downside. But they've got a faster MCU on the upside. In any case, I think Tesla continues to heading toward better for less money.

Interestingly enough I track Model S (and X) prices in the UK every now and then. Back in late April - early May the Model S 75D cost £70,250 here. It now costs £67,500 and you get the Premium package included!

 

[elasalle]

Marchionne has left FCA.

Hopefully this will trigger BEV-ification for them since Marchionne was such a stick in the mud.
Phil LeBeau on Twitter

Locked Out is better than Locked Up

 

[Curt Renz]

Ownership advisors at both the Westmont and Highland Park, Illinois (suburban Chicago) Tesla stores inform me that beginning today they are providing Model 3 test drives. Those cars have the original configuration with the larger battery pack, rear wheel drive and premium upgrade.

 

[AlMc]

Ownership advisors at both the Westmont and Highland Park, Illinois (suburban Chicago) Tesla stores inform me that beginning today they are providing Model 3 test drives. Those cars have the original configuration with the larger battery pack, rear wheel drive and premium upgrade.

Just got the same notification minutes ago from the Devon, PA. location. But...I am waiting until they get a P3D

 

[N5329K]

Behind The Wheel of the Tesla Model 3 Performance Vehicle .. Dan Neil (video) interview ..not sure if posted here , so just cross posting .. more gems here in addition to the article ...

Great video. Thanks!
Robin

 

[22522]

Do folks have the option of free electricity at night in non-Texas locations (8PM to 6AM). All other times I think 13 to 14 cents per kWh?

All showers, dishwashing and clothes washing (and importantly drying) happens in the evening with plenty of time for the hot water tank to get back to temp before 6AM.

My biggest bills are electric heat in January, so it should work out well for me.

Charging the Tesla will be free.

 

[bdy0627]

It's really hard to believe how the shorts and even analysts are barking up the demand tree at this point. There are lots of things to criticize Tesla over, but demand? Seriously? I think this article gets it right. Tesla is likely to sell all that they can produce for the foreseeable future. Say 2022? They have to figure out the optimal mix of the different versions, and just produce , produce , produce.

Tesla Model 3 Performance test drive: For many, this will be the best car at any price

 

[winfield100]

Do folks have the option of free electricity at night in non-Texas locations (8PM to 6AM). All other times I think 13 to 14 cents per kWh?
View attachment 318760
All showers, dishwashing and clothes washing (and importantly drying) happens in the evening with plenty of time for the hot water tank to get back to temp before 6AM.
My biggest bills are electric heat in January, so it should work out well for me.
Charging the Tesla will be free.

10,800 giant wind turbines in just Texas! We drove thru there and 30-40 miles (50-65kM) along interstate 40 in just 1 cluster, making free energy!
how can anyone dislike free electricity?, other than we a re slowing down the rotation of the planet thru friction and "thing-a-ma-bobblies"

 

[Wnuk]

Just got the same notification minutes ago from the Devon, PA. location. But...I am waiting until they get a P3D

I have been waiting on a call from King of Prusia. May just call Devon instead. Thanks for the notice.

 

[MP3Mike]

seriously, are you saying Tesla is buying the 22,000,000, 2170 batteries for the Model 3 needed per week?

Well they are. They buy the cells from Panasonic. Tesla employees aren't even allowed in some sections of the Panasonic portion of the Gigafactory.

The cells may be really cheap since I think Tesla procures most of the raw materials and supplies them to Panasonic. Essentially Panasonic is just a contract manufacturer using Tesla formulation and supplies.

 

[winfield100]

Well they are. They buy the cells from Panasonic. Tesla employees aren't even allowed in some sections of the Panasonic portion of the Gigafactory.

The cells may be really cheap since I think Tesla procures most of the raw materials and supplies them to Panasonic. Essentially Panasonic is just a contract manufacturer using Tesla formulation and supplies.

fair enough quibble. "hey joe across the hall, they need another 1 million batteries downstairs!!"

 

[dc_h]

VW's profits show they can easily afford to crush those cars and replace with BEV's to compete with Tesla...

And money left over to post bail.