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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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How do self-driving costs compare to conventional mass transit (including infrastructure for both - self-driving needs roadways, although some forms of conventional mass transit use them as well), though? How do they compare to cycling and other lower-speed methods of personal transport (which are crowded out by high-speed personal transport in many cases)?

Some estimates by ARK Invest:



“SAV” stands for shared autonomous vehicle. 5 cents of that 35 cents per mile figure is human remote operators monitoring SAVs and taking over if necessary. That expense could be eliminated, and the cost of SAV transport could be brought down in other ways — cheaper EVs, more durable EVs with less need for maintenance, cheaper electricity, and so on. Autonomous electric buses could of course also be cheaper than today’s buses.

With regard to traffic, it isn’t just geometry. It’s also behaviour:


We can optimize self-driving car behaviour to reduce traffic. Self-driving cars can drive much more efficiently than humans, thereby delivering more passenger miles with less congestion. There can be fewer cars on the road overall, and there is a greatly reduced need for parking.

Induced demand may still lead to increased congestion, so it’s a good thing people are working on the Boring Company and flying cars — making traffic go 3D.
 
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June 2018 YTD California Market Share

Mercedes.....3.9%
BMW............3.4%
Jeep.............3.4%
Lexus...........2.9%
VW Brand....2.3%
Tesla...........2.2%
Audi.............2.1%
Dodge..........1.8%
Acura............1.1%
Infiniti............1.0%
Land Rover....0.9%
Chrysler........0.8%
Porsche........0.7%
Volvo.............0.6%
Cadillac........0.5%
Buick............0.4%
Alfa Romeo...0.3%
Jaguar..........0.3%
Lincoln..........0.3%
Genesis........0.2%
Maserati........0.1%

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Covering-2Q-2018.pdf
Someone should make a revenue share or revenue $ graph by different sedans, accord, camry, 3 series, C class, etc. I am sure model 3 will top it in the US for july / August. @ZachShahan are you up for it?
 
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Someone should make a revenue share or revenue $ graph by different sedans, accord, camry, 3 series, C class, etc. I am sure model 3 will top it in the US for july / August. @ZachShahan are you up for it?

IhJ88Rb.jpg


Source: Brett Winton on Twitter.
 
Clear case of the economy going too well. If those young folks would be more desperate about their life situation they would stick in the job of lying, cheating and harassing at the local stealership much longer... /s
Sebastian, for the record Tesla has the same problem. Not one person at my local sales office was there last year as far as I can tell. Each time I call or visit I ask for someone whose card I was given and they are gone. I think for most it is the pay structure from what I read. Many trades are suffering as well: Plumbers, carpenters, etc. My contractor has been having a hard time just getting people to shop up on time or at all. The work ethic is shifting. Many young people I meet are not interested in long-term careers. They like bouncing around between jobs. Unemployment is so low if they get fired today they will have another job by Monday.
 
Thought I'd hear what a hot new Tesla competitor Rivian had to say:

Terms of Service Violation

Laughable interview. To sum up their ideas (and my immediate thoughts):

"With other car models, you have to choose between fuel economy, performance, capability, utility, ... What we (Rivian) are doing is bringing all those different functions together." - Hmm, so they'll beat physics, nice work.

"In our vehicle you'll be able to put your pets, kids, gear ..., but it is still fun to drive and of course very efficient." - Uhuh, like the Model X then?

"Range per charge is better than all current Tesla models, because you need to be able to drive long distances (ski trip for example)." - So way more over 400 miles then? And better than Roadster 2 and semi?

The following are literal quotes:
-Range will be significant
-performance will be exciting
- 0-60 quite quickly
-very capable of on-road and off-road
- utility like something in a minivan or pickup truck


And he finishes with saying how this car will be something unlike anything on the market, and that they will launch a subscription based 'purchase' of the car. People will not purchase vehicles anymore, Rivian says, they will share it with others and only use it when needed.

So basically they copied everything Tesla has already been saying and doing for years, but they are calling it revolutionary because they don't release photos or specs and just state for the record that their cars will be better in every way.

How the media gives credibility to these types of companies without questioning them or mentioning that Tesla has done all of this before, sickens me.

I will check out their reveal in November and laugh at their specs, I already know it.
 
Thought I'd hear what a hot new Tesla competitor Rivian had to say:




The following are literal quotes:
-Range will be significant
-performance will be exciting
- 0-60 quite quickly
-very capable of on-road and off-road
- utility like something in a minivan or pickup truck

5 Passenger Crew Cab Pickup then 7 Passenger SUV
Range up to 450 Miles. (in 2020 Teslas should have up to 620 miles of range)
0-60 3 seconds
Cost $50k-$100K
Production 50k units first year

Something like this

2018-gmc-sierra%201500-front-angle3_12192_089_480x360.jpg


Followed by a 7 Passenger SUV

2018_gmc_yukon_preview_overview-pic-2572682764802789227-640x480.jpeg



These vehicles offer more utility and is unlike what Tesla has ever produced. They are catering to the North American market. Not a global vehicle that must satisfy global taste and various government standards.

BTW At some point Tesla will introduce a full size pickup. Probably not by 2020, Model Y is a higher priority.
 
5 Passenger Crew Cab Pickup then 7 Passenger SUV
Range up to 450 Miles. (in 2020 Teslas should have up to 620 miles of range)
0-60 3 seconds
Cost $50k-$100K
Production 50k units first year

Something like this

2018-gmc-sierra%201500-front-angle3_12192_089_480x360.jpg


Followed by a 7 Passenger SUV

2018_gmc_yukon_preview_overview-pic-2572682764802789227-640x480.jpeg



These vehicles offer more utility and is unlike what Tesla has ever produced. They are catering to the North American market. Not a global vehicle that must satisfy global taste and various government standards.

BTW At some point Tesla will introduce a full size pickup. Probably not by 2020, Model Y is a higher priority.

It is still a concept, so those stats are to be taken with a grain of salt. Also I highly doubt a release in 2020.

If this car will be as promised, it will indeed be very popular in the US. But their statement that - unlike Tesla vehicles - they don't make trade offs in design between range/performance/utility/etc, is where they lost me completely.
 
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TSLA is the only car coming doing it right.

Car salesmen are useless in today's internet world.

Currently before you buy a car:
* Research it - info is everywhere.
* Get price - price you should pay is everywhere.
* Test drive barely necessary as most cars are the same.
* Want to buy it, ok can do like everything else online at this point.
* Pick up, ok just give me the keys.

Dealers have been skimming off society for years and years and continue to do so, providing no value beyond what money they can grab.

Trying to buy a car from a dealer is a horrible experience, because no matter what they say, they demanding money from you for absolutely nothing in return.

And don't get me started on "service"

The next generations know car dealers are a useless scam in the internet world. An outgoing fossil.

The only thing that protects them are the local laws they write.

Old car companies seem to not get it.

I want to buy a car from Ford, GM, Audi... not some local guy ripping off his neighbors.

It may be that their dealer network holding the old auto guys hostage is what will eventually just bring them all down. It just doesn't work anymore and makes the customer pay higher prices just to allow the local car dealer live in the best neighborhood.

That is why Tesla direct to customers is the only model that will work now.

TSLA long - it's obvious.
 
* Test drive barely necessary as most cars are the same.

I agree with your post except with the statement above. For most people buying a (brand new) car amounts to a big percentage of their net worth, so you may want to compare some brands/models to see if you'll like the car.

Just with Tesla, people will mostly get their test drives from friends/family. Problem solved.
 
Yep the car before my Tesla was a Chevy Volt. I did my research and walked into my local stealer...oops dealer... and the experience could not have been worse.

The whole thing stunk as did the follow up emails. This place tried to make me feel guilty for not buying "local" They tried to sell me nitrogen in the tires window etching,scotchgard on the seat's.

They said my salesman was a good christian man (I'm an atheist)

No wonder people hate going to those places.
 
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