-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
bdy0627
Active Member
Someone forwarded me this info from a financial newsletter:
"The lithium-ion batteries used today to power Teslas and the high performance electric vehicles produced by BMW - contain 21 kilograms of cobalt. Earlier this month, before cobalt exploded by $4,500 to a new decade high of $79,750 per metric ton, Bloomberg published an article about how automakers are beginning to feel the cobalt crunch. When BMW first revealed in October 2016 that it was designing electric versions of its X3 SUV and Mini, its cobalt raw material costs per vehicle were only $600.
Their cobalt raw material costs had already reached $1.700 on January 11th when Bloomberg published this article - and today it is now up to $1,800! That's correct, the cost for Tesla and BMW to secure the cobalt raw materials needed for the lithium-ion batteries used in their electric vehicles have TRIPLED in 15 months to $1,800! In the low margin automobile manufacturing business, a $1,200 cost increase is a BIG deal!"
I'm sure it's probably skewed but could anyone who is knowledgable about cobalt explain what Tesla is doing regarding securing it. Is Tesla paying a lot more for cobalt now?
"The lithium-ion batteries used today to power Teslas and the high performance electric vehicles produced by BMW - contain 21 kilograms of cobalt. Earlier this month, before cobalt exploded by $4,500 to a new decade high of $79,750 per metric ton, Bloomberg published an article about how automakers are beginning to feel the cobalt crunch. When BMW first revealed in October 2016 that it was designing electric versions of its X3 SUV and Mini, its cobalt raw material costs per vehicle were only $600.
Their cobalt raw material costs had already reached $1.700 on January 11th when Bloomberg published this article - and today it is now up to $1,800! That's correct, the cost for Tesla and BMW to secure the cobalt raw materials needed for the lithium-ion batteries used in their electric vehicles have TRIPLED in 15 months to $1,800! In the low margin automobile manufacturing business, a $1,200 cost increase is a BIG deal!"
I'm sure it's probably skewed but could anyone who is knowledgable about cobalt explain what Tesla is doing regarding securing it. Is Tesla paying a lot more for cobalt now?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Since Tesla and BMW vehicles have battery packs of different sizes and different chemistries it should be obvious that this blanket statement can't be accurate. 21kg of cobalt is probably close to what a 100kWh pack uses but not the smaller packs. Here is a rough analysis I did a little while ago:
NCA Tesla/Panasonic cells are at least 260Wh/kg, probably higher but we'll use that. Model S/X 100kWh pack means 385kg at the cell level, 850lbs. Cobalt at the cell level, (not just the cathode level), is around 5% of the cell weight or 43lbs. The small Model 3 pack would be almost half of that so half the cost impact. Tesla's NCA chemistry probably uses the smallest percentage of cobalt/kWh of any current high density cell chemistry so BMW's cost per kWh would likely be higher.
bdy0627
Active Member
Thanks for the info. Do we know anything about Tesla's cobalt supply contracts?
Tesla relies on Panasonic for the cell raw materials. Panasonic sources the Co and other metals from SMMYY--check their chart.
Agreed. The entire article is written like a hit piece. Even the image they used of the gigafactory is - god knows how old - made to look as though the factory is in shambles / still only partially built, and furthermore is labeled under the heading ‘slapping bandoliers together’
Is there ever any investigation into journalist pieces that could possibly be tied to short-sellers manipulating the market? I, for one, don’t mind as I did add to my position, but the general principle of it pisses me off.
Posted in Model 3 discussion but I think I will probably get better answers from investors:
So I checked my Tesla account and saw that I could configure a Model 3 now for delivery in 4 weeks. Being a share holder, I'm trying to think about the implications of being able to take delivery at the time that I can.
I was a owner as of October 2016 so I think Tesla was just selling roughly 100K total cars at a time. Since owners before me have priority I am thinking *up to 100K* Model 3s would get delivered before I could get mine.
As months passed, the "100K" queue would drop for many reasons:
- No Dual Motor Model
- No P Model
- No $35k Model
From my understanding of highest VINS and production rate (approx 1000), I would be owner # 15,000 best case if I took delivery 4 weeks from now?
Now I myself am debating if I want to take delivery in 4 weeks as I would like a dual motor car.
My worries as a stock holder is it will not be long for Tesla for finish running through the queue for current owners.
If "adoption rate" remains fixed, we are looking at perhaps 30,000 first run Model 3s sold before the non owner public has access to them.
How much of the non-owner public would pay for the current first run $50K model 3? Hopefully a lot because they don't have a Tesla currently.
Napkin math seems to show Tesla will sell 30,000 first run Model 3 out of 200,000 possible to existing owners.
As an investor I am concerned about the following doomsday scenario:
Alternative configurations availability once first run demand configuration is done.
The obvious challenge facing TSLA has always been:
1 - What's production rate?
Now I am concerned about
2 - What happens to sales if production rate rockets but desired configurations are delayed?
Since I am likely keeping LR, PUP, adding in dual motor, that ends up raising ASP and margin to Tesla that is a good thing.
Two hundred thousand cars holding out for $35k base I would view as a negative.
Would love to know your thoughts and if I am missing something that will assuage my concerns.
So I checked my Tesla account and saw that I could configure a Model 3 now for delivery in 4 weeks. Being a share holder, I'm trying to think about the implications of being able to take delivery at the time that I can.
I was a owner as of October 2016 so I think Tesla was just selling roughly 100K total cars at a time. Since owners before me have priority I am thinking *up to 100K* Model 3s would get delivered before I could get mine.
As months passed, the "100K" queue would drop for many reasons:
- No Dual Motor Model
- No P Model
- No $35k Model
From my understanding of highest VINS and production rate (approx 1000), I would be owner # 15,000 best case if I took delivery 4 weeks from now?
Now I myself am debating if I want to take delivery in 4 weeks as I would like a dual motor car.
My worries as a stock holder is it will not be long for Tesla for finish running through the queue for current owners.
If "adoption rate" remains fixed, we are looking at perhaps 30,000 first run Model 3s sold before the non owner public has access to them.
How much of the non-owner public would pay for the current first run $50K model 3? Hopefully a lot because they don't have a Tesla currently.
Napkin math seems to show Tesla will sell 30,000 first run Model 3 out of 200,000 possible to existing owners.
As an investor I am concerned about the following doomsday scenario:
Alternative configurations availability once first run demand configuration is done.
The obvious challenge facing TSLA has always been:
1 - What's production rate?
Now I am concerned about
2 - What happens to sales if production rate rockets but desired configurations are delayed?
Since I am likely keeping LR, PUP, adding in dual motor, that ends up raising ASP and margin to Tesla that is a good thing.
Two hundred thousand cars holding out for $35k base I would view as a negative.
Would love to know your thoughts and if I am missing something that will assuage my concerns.
i'm a non-owner day 0 reservationist. i'll take whatever's available if the tax credit is still there, awd short-range non-pup otherwise. i don't think many will flat out cancel their reservation (a few will). I see the only real choices are between tax credit or cheaper version - $9k extra for more range is a tough one to justify.
Looks like Tesla is working on dual motors and base battery:
Tesla registers VINS for fleet of Model 3 vehicles with dual motor – hinting at imminent launch
Tesla updates Model 3 configurator in preparation for more options
Updating my analysis on history (in blue) of VIN registrations with NHTSA as per Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter:
- Oct 28: 494 new VINs, rounded to 21/day used assuming assigned in the following 24 days until...
- Nov 21: 1201 new VINs, rounded to 41/day used assuming assigned in the following 29 days until...
- Dec 20: 954 new VINs, rounded to 119/day used assuming assigned in the following 8 days until...
- Dec 28: 3568 new VINs, rounded to 127/day used assuming assigned in the following 28 days until...
- Jan 25: 1672 new VINs
(left out small blocks of 19 and 7 VINs for statistical reasons)
Rate of 127/day includes Christmas holidays, so run rate might be higher if there were a few days off. Do we have any reliable info on that?
- Oct 28: 494 new VINs, rounded to 21/day used assuming assigned in the following 24 days until...
- Nov 21: 1201 new VINs, rounded to 41/day used assuming assigned in the following 29 days until...
- Dec 20: 954 new VINs, rounded to 119/day used assuming assigned in the following 8 days until...
- Dec 28: 3568 new VINs, rounded to 127/day used assuming assigned in the following 28 days until...
- Jan 25: 1672 new VINs
(left out small blocks of 19 and 7 VINs for statistical reasons)
Rate of 127/day includes Christmas holidays, so run rate might be higher if there were a few days off. Do we have any reliable info on that?
sub
Active Member
Can we stop assuming that all model 3 buyers are poor?
I was planning to buy a model 3 but ended up buying an X. I wanted a 3 for various reasons, none of them being that I couldn't afford a model S/X.
I guarantee there are 10's of thousands of buyers waiting for model 3 that can afford a Model S/X.
I was planning to buy a model 3 but ended up buying an X. I wanted a 3 for various reasons, none of them being that I couldn't afford a model S/X.
I guarantee there are 10's of thousands of buyers waiting for model 3 that can afford a Model S/X.
Tesla wins 4th time in a row the reader award from the German "Auto, Motor und Sport" in the luxury class
Tesla Model S gewinnt zum vierten Mal in Folge den „Best Cars Award“ | Presse Augsburg | Nachrichten für Augsburg und Bayerisch Schwaben
Tesla Model S gewinnt zum vierten Mal in Folge den „Best Cars Award“ | Presse Augsburg | Nachrichten für Augsburg und Bayerisch Schwaben
RobStark
Well-Known Member
mutle
Member
Great video by Galileo Russell from Hyper Change on how Seeking Alpha is biased against Tesla and its other flaws:
Edit: Also a little fun fact: my previous employer was hosting Seeking Alpha‘s website and I had more than a few times fixed server issues and recovered the site from outages (this was more than 5 years ago).
Edit: Also a little fun fact: my previous employer was hosting Seeking Alpha‘s website and I had more than a few times fixed server issues and recovered the site from outages (this was more than 5 years ago).
But some put down a dp thinking $35k car.
(Or sold it to their SO that way)
Mentally subtract $7500...
$27,500 Tesla?
Sign me up.
*
AWD and P models coming soon pushes some back.
Brings some in, but worst bit will be the negative MSM spin
"Tesla's PROMISED 35k car, is now only 65k"
"Tesla will never/can't build a 35K car"
"Only rich will get tax breaks" etc.
Count on it.
Limited avail of the base car has to create some falling off from the original 400K. Tesla is unlikely to report this, of course.
In the end, it does not matter, demand far outstrips supply, to a ridiculous level.
So, nevermind.
Just count on more negative noise, no matter what...
..."tiny margins in 35K cars squeezes Tesla"
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
They've been saying that from day one. Fact is many who are stretching for the $35K car wouldn't qualify for the full rebate anyway.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Where do you get 65K car? I ordered car was 58k with every option but for 19 inch wheels including full future AP
sub
Active Member
Clearly you're confusing me with someone who cares about negative spin (as if Tesla performing to perfection would stop it) or entitled whiners. Tesla doesn't owe anyone anything.
And relatively low efficiency... looks like aero kills it.
Created some confusion with my meandering writing.
Sorry.
We are Old.
"My first house cost blah blah blah..."
Want to be clear that comment was not directed at you,
just general grousing.
*
People should be cheering for what Elon has accomplished
instead it seems they cheer for him to fail.
Sorry for the confusion.
Sorry.
No. Many will simply never spend 50k on a car.
We are Old.
"My first house cost blah blah blah..."
Projected number of the upcoming AWD and P models.
I took that in good humor. I agree about the noise btw.
Want to be clear that comment was not directed at you,
just general grousing.
*
People should be cheering for what Elon has accomplished
instead it seems they cheer for him to fail.
Sorry for the confusion.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Article
