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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Full speed with a Model 3 on a German Autobahn. Interesting video with some good take aways

  • Distance about 152 km
  • Driven as fast as possible often above 200 km/h up to 225 km/h (140 m/h)
  • Average consumption 35 kWh/100k
  • Quite often acceleration kick downs like from 80 km/h to 200 km/h, I counted more than 15
  • 2 Times he reported that the car for a very short moment did not react on acceleration. Did look like for a second or two
  • Outside Temp 18 Degree, light rain
Conclusion: pretty good. Thats a normal German Autobahn situation with light traffic where you want to go fast from A to B. Consumption with just 120 km/h in average is half, 18 kWh/100km.

So in short that car is absolutely usable on high speed with lots of kick downs and no regulation of the top speed could be recorded. It will be interesting to see how the P3D compares.

 
Full speed with a Model 3 on a German Autobahn. Interesting video with some good take aways

  • Distance about 152 km
  • Driven as fast as possible often above 200 km/h up to 225 km/h (140 m/h)
  • Average consumption 35 kWh/100k
  • Quite often acceleration kick downs like from 80 km/h to 200 km/h, I counted more than 15
  • 2 Times he reported that the car for a very short moment did not react on acceleration. Did look like for a second or two
  • Outside Temp 18 Degree, light rain
Conclusion: pretty good. Thats a normal German Autobahn situation with light traffic where you want to go fast from A to B. Consumption with just 120 km/h in average is half, 18 kWh/100km.

I just refreshed my physics knowledge. Air resistant is a function of speed per square.
If i didn't make any mistake the average speed should be 167.33km/h.
 
Pretty steep price in terms of kWh for 40% faster.

True but expected. He accelerated full speed uphill from 100 km/h to +200 km/h a few time. Thats expensive in an ICE too.

If you say price you may refer to energy consumption and he was not fully charged and had range left too when he arrived so this is not the entire distance you can do on one charge but definitely twice energy consumption. The per square math works in both directions so if you go just 40 km/h you likely drive 1,000 km distance.

If you refer to price as cost for charging than the math is different. I assume about +2/3 lower cost per charge compared to my actual car and charging costs depending on SC or public charing so even with double as high consumption you will be lower in cost per mile versus an ICE.
 
True but expected. He accelerated full speed uphill from 100 km/h to +200 km/h a few time. Thats expensive in an ICE too.

If you say price you may refer to energy consumption and he was not fully charged and had range left too when he arrived so this is not the entire distance you can do on one charge but definitely twice energy consumption. The per square math works in both directions so if you go just 40 km/h you likely drive 1,000 km distance.

If you refer to price as cost for charging than the math is different. I assume about +2/3 lower cost per charge compared to my actual car and charging costs depending on SC or public charing so even with double as high consumption you will be lower in cost per mile versus an ICE.

1,000 km on a charge confirmed by German car rental firm Nextmove, running on autopilot.
 
True but expected. He accelerated full speed uphill from 100 km/h to +200 km/h a few time. Thats expensive in an ICE too.

If you say price you may refer to energy consumption and he was not fully charged and had range left too when he arrived so this is not the entire distance you can do on one charge but definitely twice energy consumption. The per square math works in both directions so if you go just 40 km/h you likely drive 1,000 km distance.

If you refer to price as cost for charging than the math is different. I assume about +2/3 lower cost per charge compared to my actual car and charging costs depending on SC or public charing so even with double as high consumption you will be lower in cost per mile versus an ICE.
Exactly. Google found 9.5 kWh for 1 liter of gasoline... my car has a 55 L tank so that would be like having a 522 kWh battery pack. Just as wasteful but much less noticeable with that kind of reserve.
 
The very best passenger car ICEs are in the ballpark of 45% efficiency at their most optimum point, and then you have transmission efficiency (95% at best, sometimes under 80% for some transmission and driveline designs in some operating regimes).

Basically, the ICE manufacturers' transmissions and differentials (especially in longitudinal mount applications, like most of the luxury competition for the Model 3 (whether RWD like BMW and Mercedes, FWD like some of the entry-level Audi longitudinal products, or AWD)) waste as much energy as Tesla's whole powertrain including the motor... and then the luxury automakers' gasoline engines are probably around 35-36% efficient at best (moderately high load, moderately low RPM).

(Transverse mount saves energy, single-speed saves energy by simplifying the transmission path, no torque converter saves energy.)

And there's no regenerative braking, either, unless you have a hybrid. (Which, hybrids also try to keep the ICE closer to its efficiency peak.)
 
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Exactly. Google found 9.5 kWh for 1 liter of gasoline... my car has a 55 L tank so that would be like having a 522 kWh battery pack. Just as wasteful but much less noticeable with that kind of reserve.
Since ICE drivetrains are typically 20% efficient vs. 90% efficient for Teslas, it's more equivalent to a 116 kWh battery pack. But yeah, still a lot of reserve.
 
Tesla is ending the free unlimited Supercharging era today – what does it mean?

Sorry for being lazy. Are there projections on potential and actual positive impact for the bottom line due to paid supercharging by tens of thousands new Teslas?
I don't have any projections, but here is what I'd like to see. I would like the Supercharger network to grow on a FCF neutral basis. This means that there is sufficient cash from charging to cover operating and maintenance, plus what is left over can be put to capex needed expand the network to keep pace with the growing fleet of cars using it. Hit this FCF neutral level the pricing needs to be sufficiently high on a network that already has a certain base to grow from. So I do believe that a self-funding network is now possible.

In the early stages, self-funding was not possible. It was necessary to have a high ratio of stations per cars just to cover expansive geography. Drivers needed to be able to go from point A to point B requiring a station at mid points even though the fleet was not yet large enough to deliver all the cash needed to support those chargers. And capex was the big challenge. So getting $2000 upfront at the sale of a new Model S was key to getting the funding for capex. But as the fleet grows in a region, utilization increases at each station and the challenge is more around having a sufficient number of stalls in an area than in having mere geographical connectivity. That is, the network gets geographically dense so that your only worry as a user is whether you'll need to wait for someone else to get off a charger so you can charge. At this level of density and high utilization, it becomes possible for per kWh or per minute revenue to cover all expenses and continued expansion.

So I believe it is a very positive sign that Tesla is now ending unlimited charging. That was an inducement for paying a lot upfront for a low density network. Now we pay less on a pay as you go basis for a higher density network. This is a much better deal for Tesla drivers. As shareholders, we own a high value asset that is now able to self fund. It does not place any capital burden on equity to continue the expansion of this network. While I do not see this as generating substantial positive FCF, that is not so important. The value accrues on the balance sheet and gives Tesla as huge and durable value differentiator among EV consumers. Consumers will be willing to pay a premium for Tesla vehicles because the network is a much better deal than what any other EV make is able to muster.

Network value is clearly illustrated in the wireless market. The preferred wireless carriers are ones with the best coverage. There are very few dead zones where using your phone becomes more costly or impossible to use. Just as Verizon has been able to make this a marketing campaign for decades now, so Tesla will be able to feature the Supercharger Network for decades. So the value of this network both to drivers and investors grows as the network grows. Others will try to catch up, but that will require much more capital than an already large and self-funding network. Share of market in this space is absolutely critical, and Tesla is locking in that share about a decade or half before the rest of the industry recognizes just how critical network value will be to the EV industry.
 
As a generic note I can testify that we have some positive new in the German media.

This has partly to do with electrons report about the production numbers that has been picked up and created an echo with other German media.

Focus for instance has been in the past notoriously negative but calculates now a run rate of 427k vehicles for Tesla. Pretty optimistic I would say. Almost from one extrem to the other....

Hiobsbotschaft für deutsche Autobauer: Tesla scheint die Model-3-Produktion in den Griff zu kriegen

Also there is a interesting report from Porsche that they decided not to go for an approached to produce EVs and ICEs in parallel or go for Hybrids beside ICE but switch from ICE over to EV in one step. They plan to accelerate their move to EVs. In 27 all models except the 911 supposed to be fully electric. Obviously not really fast in my view because thats in 8 years.

Porsche: Fast alle Modelle werden Elektroautos, Angriff auf Tesla - manager magazin

This is just to say some positive articles appeared but the vast majority of reports are still negative.
 
actually, the overall relationship of speed and energy is cubic (^3) above ca. 60kph in the real world
@gora321
You're both correct (and referring to two different things)

Air resistance (force) is proportional to the square of speed, energy used is force * distance, and distance traveled is linear to speed. So energy vs time is proportional to the cube of speed and energy vs distance is proportional to the square of speed.
 
As a generic note I can testify that we have some positive new in the German media.

This has partly to do with electrons report about the production numbers that has been picked up and created an echo with other German media.

Focus for instance has been in the past notoriously negative but calculates now a run rate of 427k vehicles for Tesla. Pretty optimistic I would say. Almost from one extrem to the other....

Hiobsbotschaft für deutsche Autobauer: Tesla scheint die Model-3-Produktion in den Griff zu kriegen

Also there is a interesting report from Porsche that they decided not to go for an approached to produce EVs and ICEs in parallel or go for Hybrids beside ICE but switch from ICE over to EV in one step. They plan to accelerate their move to EVs. In 27 all models except the 911 supposed to be fully electric. Obviously not really fast in my view because thats in 8 years.

Porsche: Fast alle Modelle werden Elektroautos, Angriff auf Tesla - manager magazin

This is just to say some positive articles appeared but the vast majority of reports are still negative.
The latter seems to be a big news I guess. Are there any official statements, quotes to back the claim?
 
The latter seems to be a big news I guess. Are there any official statements, quotes to back the claim?

In the article they did not include direct Quotes but it sounds like first hand information. They talk a lot about what the CEO Blume said. Sounds credible and yes indeed that is big new. Still late but a start....

I like that they do it on a new platform and don't dilute with ICEs. Still 8 years is a bid far away but they may be ahead against other German Automakers who just put a toe in the water.

Just imagine where Tesla will be 2027....

Porsche setzt voll auf Elektro: Der Plan von Oliver Blume
 
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