General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bhzmark]

Full speed with a Model 3 on a German Autobahn. Interesting video with some good take aways

• Distance about 152 km
• Driven as fast as possible often above 200 km/h up to 225 km/h (140 m/h)
• Average consumption 35 kWh/100k
• Quite often acceleration kick downs like from 80 km/h to 200 km/h, I counted more than 15
• 2 Times he reported that the car for a very short moment did not react on acceleration. Did look like for a second or two
• Outside Temp 18 Degree, light rain

Conclusion: pretty good. Thats a normal German Autobahn situation with light traffic where you want to go fast from A to B. Consumption with just 120 km/h in average is half, 18 kWh/100km.

So in short that car is absolutely usable on high speed with lots of kick downs and no regulation of the top speed could be recorded. It will be interesting to see how the P3D compares.

I'm so jealous that people get out of the left lane so promptly.

 

[Krugerrand]

Apologies if this has been posted before.

I opened the YouTube app this morning and saw the Audi Etron ad promoted at the top. They seem to be going for Apple’s think different theme with a spin that the 1st company in the market isnt the best (I think it just makes viewers think of Tesla when they see the ad):

My first thought was that Audi misses the whole point. Compare their commercial to the ones made by Tesla fans. Audi talks about how great they and their product are. Tesla fan commercials talk about how they are inspired about what the future can be.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I'm so jealous that people get out of the left lane so promptly.

You just need some orange lights on the front of the car.

His car is an invisible black lozenge, just a dark place that reflects the tunnel of franchise signs-the loglo. A row of orange lights burbles and chums across the front, where the grille would be if this were an air-breathing car. The orange light looks like a gasoline fire. It comes in through people's rear windows, bounces off their rearview mirrors, projects a fiery mask across their eyes, reaches into their subconscious, and unearths terrible fears of being pinned, fully conscious, under a detonating gas tank, makes them want to pull over and let the Deliverator overtake them in his black chariot of pepperoni fire.

 

[mongo]

You just need some orange lights on the front of the car.

If that doesn't work, everyone listens to Reason...

 

[MikeC]

I don't have any projections, but here is what I'd like to see. I would like the Supercharger network to grow on a FCF neutral basis. This means that there is sufficient cash from charging to cover operating and maintenance, plus what is left over can be put to capex needed expand the network to keep pace with the growing fleet of cars using it. Hit this FCF neutral level the pricing needs to be sufficiently high on a network that already has a certain base to grow from. So I do believe that a self-funding network is now possible.

In the early stages, self-funding was not possible. It was necessary to have a high ratio of stations per cars just to cover expansive geography. Drivers needed to be able to go from point A to point B requiring a station at mid points even though the fleet was not yet large enough to deliver all the cash needed to support those chargers. And capex was the big challenge. So getting $2000 upfront at the sale of a new Model S was key to getting the funding for capex. But as the fleet grows in a region, utilization increases at each station and the challenge is more around having a sufficient number of stalls in an area than in having mere geographical connectivity. That is, the network gets geographically dense so that your only worry as a user is whether you'll need to wait for someone else to get off a charger so you can charge. At this level of density and high utilization, it becomes possible for per kWh or per minute revenue to cover all expenses and continued expansion.

So I believe it is a very positive sign that Tesla is now ending unlimited charging. That was an inducement for paying a lot upfront for a low density network. Now we pay less on a pay as you go basis for a higher density network. This is a much better deal for Tesla drivers. As shareholders, we own a high value asset that is now able to self fund. It does not place any capital burden on equity to continue the expansion of this network. While I do not see this as generating substantial positive FCF, that is not so important. The value accrues on the balance sheet and gives Tesla as huge and durable value differentiator among EV consumers. Consumers will be willing to pay a premium for Tesla vehicles because the network is a much better deal than what any other EV make is able to muster.

Network value is clearly illustrated in the wireless market. The preferred wireless carriers are ones with the best coverage. There are very few dead zones where using your phone becomes more costly or impossible to use. Just as Verizon has been able to make this a marketing campaign for decades now, so Tesla will be able to feature the Supercharger Network for decades. So the value of this network both to drivers and investors grows as the network grows. Others will try to catch up, but that will require much more capital than an already large and self-funding network. Share of market in this space is absolutely critical, and Tesla is locking in that share about a decade or half before the rest of the industry recognizes just how critical network value will be to the EV industry.

Also, idle fees: Tesla increases Supercharger idle fees to decrease wait times

They got me for $8 the other month, that's 100% margin and more than the cost of the electricity I got. Just like with parking tickets this can be a steady revenue stream because there will always be some number of people who will come back late sometimes.

 

[jhm]

The Power Within!

 

[hobbes]

Insideevs seems bullish on Model 3 sales:

InsideEVs on Twitter

 

[hobbes]

The new Model 3 keyfob seems interesting:

This Key fob is used for user that don’t want to use phone nor NFC card to unlock their car.
It contains three bottoms that able to unlock the frunk, door and trunk.

First thought that was a mistake on Fred´s side, but it is actually in the manual .
Tesla Model 3 is finally getting a key fob – first images

 

[NicoV]

I'm so jealous that people get out of the left lane so promptly.

In Europe it is mandatory to go to the rghtmost lane as soon as possible.

 

[neroden]

The new Model 3 keyfob seems interesting:





First thought that was a mistake on Fred´s side, but it is actually in the manual .
Tesla Model 3 is finally getting a key fob – first images

Hopefully Tesla will get a native English speaker to rewrite that before its actual release. Seriously.

 

[mongo]

Hopefully Tesla will get a native English speaker to rewrite that before its actual release. Seriously.

@hobbes
Like the volume that goes to 11, this could be more Spinal Tap references.
Three bottoms
Three bottoms
Three bottoms, my fob's got em


And for those with the DVD, how much more black could it be?

(Seriously, watch the DVD with commenatary turned on... they are in character the whole time)

 

[winfield100]

You just need some orange lights on the front of the car.

which ends up in an unmarked swimming pool, 30 minute delivery or free

 

[mongo]

which ends up in an unmarked swimming pool, 30 minute delivery or free

Was it unmarked? I thought Hiro went through the wrong yard...

 

[winfield100]

Was it unmarked? I thought Hiro went through the wrong yard...

from reading book ages ago, pizza delivery person, somebody had "illegal" swimming pool that was not on the maps so he drove thru yard, ecept got surprised by pool. (where's my neural lace, it takes 10 years to grow and i need it now!)

 

[mongo]

from reading book ages ago, pizza delivery person, somebody had "illegal" swimming pool that was not on the maps so he drove thru yard, ecept got surprised by pool. (where's my neural lace, it takes 10 years to grow and i need it now!)

Per neural lace 0.1
Neal Stephenson – Snow Crash - Chapter One | Genius
He was in the wrong yard due to being distracted by the Kourier...

Spoiler: Snow Crash Excerpt

This is it -- got to pay more attention to the road -- he swings into the side street, no warning, hoping maybe to whipsaw the Kourier into the street sign on the corner. Doesn't work. The smart ones watch your front tires, they see when you're turning, can ' t surprise them. Down Strawbridge Place! It seems so long, longer than he remembered -- natural when you're in a hurry. Sees the glint of cars up ahead, cars parked sideways to the road -- these must be parked in the circle. And there's the house. Light blue vinyl clapboard two-story with one-story garage to the side. He makes that driveway the center of his universe, puts the Kourier out of his mind, tries not to think about Uncle Enzo, what he's doing right now -- in the bath, maybe, or taking a crap, or making Iove to some actress, or teaching Sicilian songs to one of his twenty-six granddaughters .

The slope of the driveway slams his front suspension halfway up into the engine compartment, but that ' s what suspensions are for. He evades the car in the driveway -- must have visitors tonight, didn't remember that these people drove a Lexus -- cuts through the hedge, into the side yard, looks for that shed, that shed he absolutely must not run into it's not there, they took it down next
problem, the picnic table in the next yard hang on, there's a fence, when did they put up a fence?

This is no time to put on the brakes. Got to build up some speed, knock it down without blowing all this momentum. It's just a four-foot wooden thing, The fence goes down easy, he loses maybe ten percent of his speed. But strangely, it looked like an old fence, maybe he made a wrong turn somewhere -- he realizes, as he catapults into an empty backyard swimming pool.

 

[ggies07]

Not bad....got chills at the end.

chris collins‏ @chrisccollins 2h2 hours ago
Here's a @Tesla spec ad I cut for fun. @elonmusk @TeslaMotorsClub @SpaceX #tesla #specad #elonmusk #spacex pic.twitter.com/HwklAZuCQJ

chris collins on Twitter

 

[Rarity]

Insideevs seems bullish on Model 3 sales:

InsideEVs on Twitter

The nice thing about the actual article is that it brings up the possibility of taking a second bite at the new car margin apple via re-homologation. Very interesting to learn about the tariff arbitrage.

Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza

 

[lklundin]

Also, idle fees: Tesla increases Supercharger idle fees to decrease wait times

They got me for $8 the other month, that's 100% margin and more than the cost of the electricity I got. Just like with parking tickets this can be a steady revenue stream because there will always be some number of people who will come back late sometimes.

In spite of your anecdotal evidence I believe the main effect will be to lessen the load on the supercharger stalls themselves, thus making it possible for the same number of supercharger stations to support a larger fleet of Teslas.

 

[Paracelsus]

Fantastic map showing why a permanent footprint in China/Asia will release Tesla from much of the grip of Wall Street and the lying media FUD - hence IMO their increased efforts to sink the ship before it sets sail towards much more receptive (and supportive) shores

This Fascinating World Map was Drawn Based on Country Populations

 

[MikeC]

In spite of your anecdotal evidence I believe the main effect will be to lessen the load on the supercharger stalls themselves, thus making it possible for the same number of supercharger stations to support a larger fleet of Teslas.

Sure, that’s obviously the reason for idle fees in the first place. And parking tickets are intended to keep people from parking illegally.

My point remains that people nevertheless will at times violate the rule and end up paying the fine, and this is pure profit for Tesla.