General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MikeC]

I can't find a reference. I may have just inferred by the fact that they were not doing a signature model first that it meant orders would be processed based on priority discussed (employees, prior owners, region, etc) regardless of option selection... Whatever, I'm over it.

There was definitely a point at which he said they’d build the 35k car first. I can’t find a link but I distinctly remember people being surprised because Tesla always builds the higher end car first historically.

 

[Richgoogol]

Any news? This definitely feels like news...this drop is way too dramatic..

 

[ggies07]

I've been waiting for a Tesla vehicle for over 10 years now, I plan on getting the SR Model 3, but I always expected higher priced models to be built first. I'll be disappointed if the SR models are pushed out of the tax credit period but I don't remember any promise from Tesla to the contrary.

We obviously expected different things then....I never once thought SR first over LR, but I did expect (and still do until told otherwise by the company) that the RN you have means something....otherwise waiting in line and Elon's emotional statement at the 3 launch means nothing. I expect them to do LR and SR at the same time because of this and right now it still says "Early 2018" for me.

 

[Drumheller]

I don't know if it's related to the stock price drop, but I posted earlier today a link to reddit where there is a discussion about the alcantera headliner switch to textile. It looks like a supplier dropped Tesla. Then, Tesla's official statement was that this was planned all along.

This level of disorganization and possible BS in the statement has me considering my long position for the first time. I'm a huge fan of the products and Elon Musk, but it seems like they just cannot run an efficient and organized company. Also, another battery executive left to go to Uber. Tesla can't seem to retain talent, either.

Frustrating.

 

[Runarbt]

Any news? This definitely feels like news...this drop is way too dramatic..

nah.. about as steep as the climb this morning. nothing special

 

[Waiting4M3]

FWIW, Tesla assigned VIN 41xx today.
VIN Assignment

M3 Production Speculation
At the end of Q4 Tesla had produced 2450 M3 while the highest assigned VIN was around 28xx IIRC. From watching VINs over the past few months, it doesn't appear that Tesla is assigning VINs before they are produced. Rather the reason assigned VINs are higher than total production is because some VINs have been skipped or scrapped to the tune of about 400-500 cars.

So it appears that subtracting ~500 off the highest assigned VIN gives a rough idea of the total M3 produced thus far. With today's assigning of VIN 41xx, my guess is that Tesla has now produced about 3600 Model 3 cars - or additional 1150 cars since Q4. That puts them at about 100 cars/day (700/wk) for January thus far.

That's better than I was expecting, as I expected only a trickle in the first half of January as Tesla tweaks their line after the late December EoQ surge. So I see this as a positive, although it is a very rough estimate.

This 500 delta matches the hypothesis that Tesla batch build ~1000 cars in the production line at a time, with the VINs being randomized within that block of 1000, the highest VIN is likely ~500 higher than the # of completed cars.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Not sure if I agree with Vance here, but this thread is worth reading:
Ashlee Vance on Twitter
He obviously knows a lot about Musk the person (he's the guy who wrote the Musk biography), not necessarily a lot about Tesla the company, especially now, after 4 years.

 

[MagT]

Believe much of the difference is that Tesla is public, while Space X isnt.

 

[Curt Renz]

Not sure if I agree with Vance here, but this thread is worth reading:
Ashlee Vance on Twitter
He obviously knows a lot about Musk the person (he's the guy who wrote the Musk biography), not necessarily a lot about Tesla the company, especially now, after 4 years.

Vance's Musk tweets commenced today almost precisely at the time that the TSLA price began to fall from its high for the session.

 

[Richgoogol]

Vance's Musk tweets commenced today almost precisely at the time that the TSLA price began to fall from its high for the session.

That is spot on...Is this a coincidence?

 

[Richgoogol]

Our kinky hero
Elon Musk confirms he was the an alleged Silicon Valley 'sex party' until 1am — but he thought it was a costume party and left early

 

[bdy0627]

Not sure if I agree with Vance here, but this thread is worth reading:
Ashlee Vance on Twitter
He obviously knows a lot about Musk the person (he's the guy who wrote the Musk biography), not necessarily a lot about Tesla the company, especially now, after 4 years.

He sure comes down hard on Tesla and particularly the execution of Model 3 production thus far. Frankly, he seems a bit out of touch with the reality of producing so many cars so quickly. I guess, like many of us, he must have assumed Tesla would produce what they said they would produce in 2017. As well as he knows Musk, he should be the last person to assume that. He knows all about the Musk timeline distortion trait. Where is his Musk filter?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

OH Cry me a river!

Auto manufacturing is 100+ years and Tesla taking over 10+.

Someone needs more royalty $$$.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I’ll give you all some tissue if we are in 2025 and Tesla still can’t get more than 5K/week rate.
Otherwise seem like these self proclaimed experts are the know it all and able to do better. Give me a break.

We are near $350 SP so no surprise another round of attack is underway.

 

[Mich]

Believe much of the difference is that Tesla is public, while Space X isnt.

... and Tesla is B2C, SpaceX B2B

 

[Skryll]

Our kinky hero
Elon Musk confirms he was the an alleged Silicon Valley 'sex party' until 1am — but he thought it was a costume party and left early

...until the 'boring' ****ers go home... which would be?

 

[Curt Renz]

That is spot on...Is this a coincidence?

If algobots are connected to Vance's twitter account, it may not be a coincidence. It could be the "news" I could not earlier find. Excited algobots may have triggered the cascade of stop-loss-limits that I described above, without their hedge fund masters yet knowing the reason.

If this is indeed the case, it should all be forgotten before the market opens tomorrow. Vance did not introduce any new concerns.

 

[erthquake]

This is Tesla's weak point (communication) and it is already hurting the company -- quite a lot. There's still nothing which can really be called "competition", which is why this isn't affecting the company's near-term prospects. But when there is competition (perhaps imported BYDs) which gets the communications right, that's when I'm selling my Tesla stock, because Tesla has proven totally unable to get communications right, and they've had years and years to try to fix it.

But why fix it now if near-term prospects aren't endangered by it? Spend the time, energy and money somewhere else of more immediate concern. When/if competition is imminent, that's the time to put effort into the comm. side of things.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The average intelligence of a Tesla bear.

I used to be surprised at people shorting this stock... used to.

 

[azaz]

I don't know if it's related to the stock price drop, but I posted earlier today a link to reddit where there is a discussion about the alcantera headliner switch to textile. It looks like a supplier dropped Tesla. Then, Tesla's official statement was that this was planned all along.

This level of disorganization and possible BS in the statement has me considering my long position for the first time. I'm a huge fan of the products and Elon Musk, but it seems like they just cannot run an efficient and organized company. Also, another battery executive left to go to Uber. Tesla can't seem to retain talent, either.

Frustrating.

Elon needs a COO. the level of delays/broken promises should not just be tolerated cause Elon is Elon.