General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[22522]

Bad Bloomberg, baad. What if we were to copy your articles like that, eh? That is not fair use.

Plagiarism lives well.

 

[Todd Burch]

Things are moving at the same speed as they have been for the last several weeks. We need the Grohmann lines disassembled, shipped, reassembled, and people trained for another step-change in production

Incorrect, according to Tesla's 8K clarification from Thursday. They explicitly said that the Grohmann lines are NOT needed to reach 2500 per week.

 

[BETA1019]

I don't think anyone knows the answer to your question. For example, we didn't know about the very sophisticated automated parts conveyance system bottleneck until last week, even though 5k/w was originally planned for exit-17, so who knows what will pop up on the way to 10k/w. The last I heard about 10k/w was when we were told people should have absolutely zero doubt that it would happen in 2018.

This is also a concerning point for me. Is there a possibility for this to be used against him in some kind of lawsuit?

 

[Todd Burch]

This is also a concerning point for me. Is there a possibility for this to be used against him in some kind of lawsuit?

No.

Jeez guys. The start of every quarterly conference call, and every 8K filing, has the statement that they make forward looking statements that may not come to fruition. A statement or expectation is NOT a promise, and sure as heck does not hold any legal obligation.

 

[Lessmog]

[URL='https://twitter.com/ValueAnalyst1']ValueAnalyst

Retweetade

[/URL]

Dana Hull‏Verifierat konto @danahull 11 minför 11 minuter sedan



Dana Hull Retweetade Tom Randall

Do you have a Model 3? Enter your VIN into this database that @tsrandall painstakingly created

Now THIS is fair use. Is tsrandall the TMC member who made the VIN database? Not by that name, it seems.

 

[MP3Mike]

I see it very simply, as I see all things:

Step 1) look at box 2 on your w-2 form.
Step 2) subtract your typical refund
Step 3) that is how much the tax credit saves you (or $7.5K, whichever is more)

I think you mean:
Step 3) that is how much the tax credit saves you (or $7.5K, whichever is less)

 

[Starno]

Things are moving at the same speed as they have been for the last several weeks. We need the Grohmann lines disassembled, shipped, reassembled, and people trained for another step-change in production, so “March maybe; April definitely,” so June, if all goes well, but only burst-rate, so September EMT, and December EST? No word on if all that happens in 2018 or 2019, and if you dare assume it can happen before 2020, you will forever be deemed optimistic. Has anyone seen the third 8-K that fails to explain the second 8-K? I’m gonna burn it with a flamethrower.

They don't need those lines from Germany to get to 2500k.

Anyone older than 10yo would have understood the 8k this way. I really don't understand why you keep plunging your head into the sand.

From the 8k : " Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. "

 

[ValueAnalyst]

They don't need those lines from Germany to get to 2500k.

Anyone older than 10yo would have understood the 8k this way. I really don't understand why you keep plunging your head into the sand.

From the 8k : " Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. "

It's a question of whether you believe an off-the-cuff remark on the call vs. lawyered up 8-K:

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. We expect the new automated lines to arrive next month in March, and then it's already – it's been – it's working in Germany. So, that's got to be disassembled, brought over to the Gigafactory, and re-assembled and then brought into operation at the Gigafactory. It's not a question of whether it works or not. It's just a question of disassembly, transport, and reassembly.

[snip]

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

So, yes. So, we expect to alleviate that constraint. That – with alleviating that constraint, that's what gets us to the roughly 2,000 to 2,500 unit per week production rate.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes many working people pay north of $7500 in federal taxes and wantor need affordable transportation. Remember there are far more Malibu’s, Camrys and Accords sold than BMWs. The reason is price matters. I doubt I would have paid $36000 for our Volt but at $29k it was very competitive with the Prius we were driving.

I wasn’t disputing that many peole pay north of 7,500 in federal taxes.

Are you assuming that because there are more Malibu’s, Camrys and Accords that that’s strictly because people can’t afford more for a car?

Car owning has never been more affordable than now. 0 percent down payment plans, low interest rates...etc...

I’ve never paid over 12k for a vehicle in my life and yet could absolutely afford to. I will option out a Model 3 and not even blink. You couldn’t give me a Malibu, Camry or Accord. There are reasons for that that you haven’t considered and I’m not alone as was evidenced by people who have bought S and X.

Not everyone lives your reality or thinks like you, so when trying to predict what people will do you have to put yourself in their shoes and minds. I stand by my original disagreement with your sentiment and frankly I’m hoping and bettimg I’m right. But we’ll see soon enough.

 

[Lessmog]

It's a question of whether you believe an off-the-cuff remark on the call vs. lawyered up 8-K:

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. We expect the new automated lines to arrive next month in March, and then it's already – it's been – it's working in Germany. So, that's got to be disassembled, brought over to the Gigafactory, and re-assembled and then brought into operation at the Gigafactory. It's not a question of whether it works or not. It's just a question of disassembly, transport, and reassembly.

[snip]

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

So, yes. So, we expect to alleviate that constraint. That – with alleviating that constraint, that's what gets us to the roughly 2,000 to 2,500 unit per week production rate.

And which version would one have a better chance to win a lawsuit with? (Asking for a friend)

 

[W84M3]

It's a question of whether you believe an off-the-cuff remark on the call vs. lawyered up 8-K:

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. We expect the new automated lines to arrive next month in March, and then it's already – it's been – it's working in Germany. So, that's got to be disassembled, brought over to the Gigafactory, and re-assembled and then brought into operation at the Gigafactory. It's not a question of whether it works or not. It's just a question of disassembly, transport, and reassembly.

[snip]

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

So, yes. So, we expect to alleviate that constraint. That – with alleviating that constraint, that's what gets us to the roughly 2,000 to 2,500 unit per week production rate.

You think they are explicitly clarifying this in the 8K and still lying? Well, don't believe the shareholder letter, income statement, & balance sheet neither because they are made up.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

And which version would one have a better chance to win a lawsuit with? (Asking for a friend)

I don't think any of this would hold up in court, which is another reason why I'm skeptical of 2,500 in March... just call it an aspirational goal, and you're good to go! It's a new defense term. Stanford Law has a course on it.

The current NHTSA max means Tesla does not expect to rise much above 1,000/wk until at least March, and it'd be surprising (to say the least) if they can jump from 1,000/wk to 2,500/wk in one month... but hey, I have my head in the sand, so what do I know...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You think they are explicitly clarifying this in the 8K and still lying? Well, don't believe the shareholder letter, income statement, & balance sheet neither because they are made up.

I'm not saying they are lying... they are just setting "aspirational" goals.

 

[Reciprocity]

I see it very simply, as I see all things:

Step 1) look at box 2 on your w-2 form.
Step 2) subtract your typical refund
Step 3) that is how much the tax credit saves you (or $7.5K, whichever is more)

Since I see that payment as coming out of my bank account where all my after tax dollars live, that tax credit is like getting a $10,000 bonus in salary.

Yes and no. This doesnt work because everything changed. A lot. Especially if you have kids which are now tax credits as well and the limits are much higher for income for the child tax credit. I know its not really popular to say, but more people will not have to pay any fed taxes then before the new tax changes.

For example, if you are single and have no kids, you probably need to make north of $50,000 a year to take full advantage of the credit. If you are married and file jointly and have children, its even higher because the children are such great tax credits. North of $100,000. Even though most will not itemize anymore, if you add a fully funded 401k or IRA, then you are talking north of $120,000 for a married couple with 2 children to hit that 7500 in taxes due. It really is a lot of tax savings because the nature of credits. This year, I have an EV tax credit and Solar. The nice thing about solar is that any overage can carry into the next year, but I dont know how that works with the EV tax credit. Luckily or unluckily, I have enough taxes paid to use it all. I purposely timed some things for last year that would insure that.

 

[30seconds]

In terms of long term demand it’s good to remember that EVs are on a declining cost curve with respect to manufacturing. In other words I expect a “base” Model 3 in a few years to have more range than it does now for the same price.

Also price sensitive buyers also understand that there is still a large difference in fuel costs between a Camry and a Model 3.

 

[dhrivnak]

I wasn’t disputing that many peole pay north of 7,500 in federal taxes.

Are you assuming that because there are more Malibu’s, Camrys and Accords that that’s strictly because people can’t afford more for a car?

Car owning has never been more affordable than now. 0 percent down payment plans, low interest rates...etc...

I’ve never paid over 12k for a vehicle in my life and yet could absolutely afford to. I will option out a Model 3 and not even blink. You couldn’t give me a Malibu, Camry or Accord. There are reasons for that that you haven’t considered and I’m not alone as was evidenced by people who have bought S and X.

Not everyone lives your reality or thinks like you, so when trying to predict what people will do you have to put yourself in their shoes and minds. I stand by my original disagreement with your sentiment and frankly I’m hoping and bettimg I’m right. But we’ll see soon enough.

Yes the median household income is $59,000 so half the people make a good bit less. So let’s assume the median income and with taxes, title and destination the base price is $40k. How many people should spend over 70% of their income on a car? Remember we on TMC are likely well above average.

 

[avoigt]

You think they are explicitly clarifying this in the 8K and still lying? Well, don't believe the shareholder letter, income statement, & balance sheet neither because they are made up.

After all the justified or not justified disappointment lately in the market I do believe that the Management team around EM would try to make sure that credibility is not further eroded. IOW, if I know already that the risk we miss the 2.5 k in March is hight would I make such a strong statement in the investor letter, CC and SEC clarification letter ? I doubt that they would take that risk.

Standard procedure would be to rather to play it down as you know you disappoint in the ER anyway and give yourself the opportunity to surprise investors in March and June.

OTOH the indications I see around deliveries combined with highest VINs and invitations that went out or not make me cautions that they are on track.

In any case there is only one direction where production and delivery goes and that is up therefore I am deeply relaxed.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes the median household income is $59,000 so half the people make a good bit less. So let’s assume the median income and with taxes, title and destination the base price is $40k. How many people should spend over 70% of their income on a car? Remember we on TMC are likely well above average.

As a statistical point, median income is not a useful metric to assess for demand of any expensive item. For cars in particular one needs to evaluate the several modes of income and wealth that are the likely buying universe.
Model 3 certainly will not be lower in demographics than is BMW 3-Series. In the US about 40% of BMW 3-Series are purchases made without borrowing (i.e. with clear title). The remainder are split about evenly between loans and leases. Given the mean FICO score in recent BMW securitizations it is probably reasonable to assume the average Model 3 buyer will have FICO of above 750, with almost none lower than 720. That suggests there are very few buyers with household incomes below $100,000 except for a few asset risk, income poor cash buyers.

As for % of income you'll see almost no Model 3 buyers whose income will be stretched by the purchase.

OK, I have no direct evidence, but I do strongly believe this is likely to be what happens.
Note: poor people rarely buy BEV's in any price point. For example Nissan Leaf buyers are the highest demographics of any Nissan-branded vehicles. (note: don't ask for the source of that data)

 

[elasalle]

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2018 TESLA, INC. Special Meeting of Stockholders

MEETING DATE: March 21, 2018
For Holders as of: February 7, 2018

Past week, but after 7th, I sold all my shares .. now all in combo of Deep ITM Calls, and Deep OTM Puts ... but I can sure vote

 

[tander]

Anybody know if the new compensation milestones for Musk will also include operational goals like producing 500k trucks etc? Wondering if they will add them in later after the vote or if it will be in the 10k.