General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[DragonWatch]

Fix Or Repair Daily (FORD)

Ford Releases New Details On Mach 1 Electric Crossover

I will be seventy by the time this comes to market I actually rated a Ford Mustang in 1975/6 and received $5 for my time. I rated it, by stating that, "it looked like an old woman's car." While I was in high school, Shelby was a few miles away modifying them into Cobras, so seeing the newer version fresh from the factory did little to impress me. Since I was not into science in those days, I never could figure out how you you could cross a horse and a snake to make a really cool car anyway In our twenty some, mostly brand new, cars we never did buy a Ford. After being married just under a year, we bought a new VW bug for $3K and paid cash in 1974. Oh, and Xena will be four years old in 2020

Oh well, good to see the competition is finally getting off the dime. If they have a driverless car by then, maybe the media will report on them flying into ponds.

 

[ggr]

Typo

He’s 17. At 27 he can go wherever he wants

The basement?

 

[ggr]

See this makes no sense.

This is the investor forum right? If BMW, VM etc start making tesla competitive cars your concern shouldnt be what their margin is, your concern should be if Tesla can survive.

Based on your thesis, if the Mission E (which looks sick btw) completely crushes the model S and Tesla Sales plummet, but Porsche only had a 15% margin, you wouldnt sell Tesla.


Thats not a good approach to investing unless you don't like money.


I have nothing against you liking your car, im glad you like it.

You are making the same mistake others do... I don't care how good the Mission E is, it isn't stealing sales from Tesla, it's stealing them from Panamera, S-class, A8...

 

[DragonWatch]

While driving to my men's monthly coffee group meeting; you know where we solve all the problems of the world, my mind drifted while driving:-(

Just before driving an hour to the coffee hole, my wife reminded me to drive carefully Also, I have from time to time pondered the meaning of 2001 The Space Odyssey; saw it in high school way back when it came out. And, of course we have had all the FUD about accidents and the mentioning of "Autopilot." Remember now, my wife does not let me out too often, let alone by myself, so this was a treat Oh, and do not forget the Tesla App on her phone. So, I am driving along in full autopilot mode looking at the wonderful pine trees, an occasional Eagle and of course those pesky other drivers. When, a big grin formed on my face as I imagined "Al, this is Xena ~ SLOW the F*&% Down." Of course Xena knows my name is really Bruce Right?

 

[RobStark]

Cheddar - today: Snap VP of Monetization Engineering Leaves For Tesla

Remember any person Tesla hires is of no consequence.

Once they leave they are a Genius Executive.

 

[rocketlow49]

Just a thought on some of my estimations for total production numbers and revenues for 2019. Obviously, this is in no way a "scientific" estimation, but with the right market conditions, I think these numbers are super feasible

Please let me know your thoughts

Cars
Model 3 = 390,000 (@7500/w)
Model S + X = 110,000 (Assuming they were able to eek out another 8-10k per year due to effiency gains)
Total cars = 500,000
Total Revenue = $39.5B (Assuming ASP $79k per car)

Energy Storage + Solar
$10B assuming Energy storage triples and solar continues to grow (slowly)

Total Company 2019 Revenue $49.5B (USD)

That is just under half of the annual revenue BMW made in 2017. Based on these estimates Tesla will have a 3-4x increase in revenue over 2018 which represents a year to year trend upwards, while legacy car companies will see little to no growth. Not bad for such a young American company with arguably the most loyal fanbase in the history of consumer products (up there with Apple during it's heydays). If we look at it this way, Tesla's market valuation is not that high after all! It is also worth keeping in mind that Tesla is already building the cars of the future while the other companies are going to spend insane CAPEX to convert their product lines to an all-electric future (dealers, engineering, supply chain, manufacturing etc...). Not to mention brand story as well... I have a tough time believing BMW can continue to use the line "The Ultimate Driving Machine" without sounding off-base to the public.

Current Market Cap (USD) 2018 Current
BMW 73.5B
MERC 86.1B
TESLA 46.695B

Notice I did not include Toyota, Honda, GM, FCA, as I do not see them as direct competitors (more mainstream less luxury).

Please let me know your thoughts!
Hank

 

[Krugerrand]

So I started shorting around ~204 and completely covered around $310, then at ~350 I began taking a much more significant position (due to having more cash to invest for unrelated reasons, admittedly my timing is lucky because i would have bet bigger at 200 if i could have afforded it, so it wasnt because i was smart).


Looking back, i thought tesla was way overvalued even before the solar city deal, but i realized that I underestimated the hype factor, model 3 timeline and all the hype that could be generated before they ever had to deliver an actual product, and I paid for it.


The reason i dont fear that as much anymore is because the current cash position and current liquidity constraints combined with basically no one really believing Elon anymore (except some TRowe FM i guess) is there cant be anymore big announcements. I mean they even had to walk back the model Y announcement. I think he has gone to that well too many times and now its put up or shutup time. My bet is they cant put up, and I dont really see any reason to think otherwise although i am always open to hear why I am wrong.

All good. Not everyone learns from their mistakes the first time around. I’ve even known several people to basically require a bat upside the head to learn a lesson. You’re in good company.

 

[Krugerrand]

I totally agree but didnt want to say that here because im trying to be less negative!

Please. You’re doing no such thing just being continuously disingenuous.

 

[Remus]

See this makes no sense.

This is the investor forum right? If BMW, VM etc start making tesla competitive cars your concern shouldnt be what their margin is, your concern should be if Tesla can survive.

Based on your thesis, if the Mission E (which looks sick btw) completely crushes the model S and Tesla Sales plummet, but Porsche only had a 15% margin, you wouldnt sell Tesla.


Thats not a good approach to investing unless you don't like money.


I have nothing against you liking your car, im glad you like it.

you said it was piece of junk, dangerous ....

 

[Remus]

You are making the same mistake others do... I don't care how good the Mission E is, it isn't stealing sales from Tesla, it's stealing them from Panamera, S-class, A8...

the more EVs on the road, more money goes into charging infrastructure, making EVs easier to adopt for more people,

 

[kbM3]

Just a thought on some of my estimations for total production numbers and revenues for 2019. Obviously, this is in no way a "scientific" estimation, but with the right market conditions, I think these numbers are super feasible

Please let me know your thoughts

Cars
Model 3 = 390,000 (@7500/w)
Model S + X = 110,000 (Assuming they were able to eek out another 8-10k per year due to effiency gains)
Total cars = 500,000
Total Revenue = $39.5B (Assuming ASP $79k per car)

Energy Storage + Solar
$10B assuming Energy storage triples and solar continues to grow (slowly)

Total Company 2019 Revenue $49.5B (USD)

That is just under half of the annual revenue BMW made in 2017. Based on these estimates Tesla will have a 3-4x increase in revenue over 2018 which represents a year to year trend upwards, while legacy car companies will see little to no growth. Not bad for such a young American company with arguably the most loyal fanbase in the history of consumer products (up there with Apple during it's heydays). If we look at it this way, Tesla's market valuation is not that high after all! It is also worth keeping in mind that Tesla is already building the cars of the future while the other companies are going to spend insane CAPEX to convert their product lines to an all-electric future (dealers, engineering, supply chain, manufacturing etc...). Not to mention brand story as well... I have a tough time believing BMW can continue to use the line "The Ultimate Driving Machine" without sounding off-base to the public.

Current Market Cap (USD) 2018 Current
BMW 73.5B
MERC 86.1B
TESLA 46.695B

Notice I did not include Toyota, Honda, GM, FCA, as I do not see them as direct competitors (more mainstream less luxury).

Please let me know your thoughts!
Hank

ASP seems high.

I would think $50k x 400k for Model 3 = $20B
$100k x 100k for Model SX = $10B
Total = $30B

Unless my math is wrong.

 

[RobStark]

Q1 2018 California Market Share

Volkswagen. 2.3%
Ram.............1.7%
Tesla............1.5%
Infiniti...........1.1%
Acura...........1.0%
Land Rover. 0.9%
Porsche.......0.7%
Cadillac.......0.6%
Volvo...........0.6%
Buick...........0.5%
Mini.............0.5%
Mitsubishi....0.5%
Lincoln........ 0.3%
Alfa Romeo..0.2%
Genesis.......0.2%
Fiat.............. 0.1%
Maserati.......0.1%

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Covering-1Q-2018.pdf

 

[skitown]

You are making the same mistake others do... I don't care how good the Mission E is, it isn't stealing sales from Tesla, it's stealing them from Panamera, S-class, A8...

Right. Either Tesla continues to steal market share from ICE Porsche's or the Mission-E is so good that it cannibalizes the sugar out of ICE Porsches. I sure hope the Mission-E has fat margins like their cash cow ICE mobiles; otherwise it will be sad-times for Porsche. I mean, not as sad as having your Head of Powertrain Development arrested for systematic fraud, but sad. You all get the idea.

 

[ZsoZso]

See this makes no sense.

This is the investor forum right? If BMW, VM etc start making tesla competitive cars your concern shouldnt be what their margin is, your concern should be if Tesla can survive.

Based on your thesis, if the Mission E (which looks sick btw) completely crushes the model S and Tesla Sales plummet, but Porsche only had a 15% margin, you wouldnt sell Tesla.


Thats not a good approach to investing unless you don't like money.


I have nothing against you liking your car, im glad you like it.

What you fail to understand is this:
If Mission E is really better and cheaper than the Model S, then it will crush all other Porsche sales first (bankrupting the whole VW family in the process), and there will be plenty enough people to buy all available model S still. They would need to price it cheaper than a Toyota Camry and produce millions per year to choke the Tesla sales, otherwise they just keep killing other ICE sales. Tesla cars > ICE cars, so anything that is a "tesla killer" is also by definition an ICE killer. This is what the bears keep getting wrong. There is no separate electric car market, only a general car market that includes both ICE and EV.

So the point is: they need to have better margin than Tesla otherwise Tesla is still a better stock. Existence of a better and cheaper car still cannot kill Tesla sales as long as there are millions of far worse ICE cars on the market.

 

[JRP3]

As a bull, if they can't you have to acknowledge Elon flat out lied.

I totally agree but didnt want to say that here because im trying to be less negative!

You'll need to try much harder. You immediately see "lies" where there are none. It's possible that they think the issue can be fixed OTA but they could actually be wrong. Making mistakes is not the same as lying.

 

[dc_h]

Cars
Model 3 = 390,000 (@7500/w)
Model S + X = 110,000 (Assuming they were able to eek out another 8-10k per year due to effiency gains)
Total cars = 500,000
Total Revenue = $39.5B (Assuming ASP $79k per car)

Is the SX bottleneck Fremont or Panasonic Japan? Helping Panasonic get every dime out of the Japan 18650 plant means they can invest more in Sparks and in China. Ive thought a refresh for S and X was obvious way to update the flagships, but if that distracts from the big vision, then maybe no S / X change to 2070 until 2020. They can continue to tweak the 18650 format, even if the bigger cell provides some advantages. The two cars are about 8 billion in revenue overall and probably about 1.5 to 1.7 billion in revenue to Panasonic at about $180 in cell price. So maybe about 110,000 is as high as they can go without Panasonic investing in the original plant.

Assuming about 8.5 to 9 GW of batteries in the original Japanese plant.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Is the SX bottleneck Fremont or Panasonic Japan? Helping Panasonic get every dime out of the Japan 18650 plant means they can invest more in Sparks and in China. Ive thought a refresh for S and X was obvious way to update the flagships, but if that distracts from the big vision, then maybe no S / X change to 2070 until 2020. They can continue to tweak the 18650 format, even if the bigger cell provides some advantages. The two cars are about 8 billion in revenue overall and probably about 1.5 to 1.7 billion in revenue to Panasonic at about $180 in cell price. So maybe about 110,000 is as high as they can go without Panasonic investing in the original plant.

Assuming about 8.5 to 9 GW of batteries in the original Japanese plant.

I suspect the bottleneck is both. Tesla and Panasonic agreed on how many MS/X and how many 18650 cells to make, and both spent just the right CapEx to build to the capacity. I can't imagine either would sit on excess capacity without knowing the other side would increase production volume.

 

[RobStark]

Is the SX bottleneck Fremont or Panasonic Japan? .

The entire supply chain is geared toward 100k Gen II units per year.

Like traditional car makers Tesla can probably grow production 2% per year without much trouble. At some point in the future needing to reinstate a 3rd shift for the S/X manufacturing line.

 

[K_Dizzle]

ASP seems high.

I would think $50k x 400k for Model 3 = $20B
$100k x 100k for Model SX = $10B
Total = $30B

Unless my math is wrong.

You’re missing the tesla energy contribution

 

[TradingInvest]

Just a thought on some of my estimations for total production numbers and revenues for 2019. Obviously, this is in no way a "scientific" estimation, but with the right market conditions, I think these numbers are super feasible

Please let me know your thoughts

Cars
Model 3 = 390,000 (@7500/w)
Model S + X = 110,000 (Assuming they were able to eek out another 8-10k per year due to effiency gains)
Total cars = 500,000
Total Revenue = $39.5B (Assuming ASP $79k per car)

Energy Storage + Solar
$10B assuming Energy storage triples and solar continues to grow (slowly)

Total Company 2019 Revenue $49.5B (USD)

That is just under half of the annual revenue BMW made in 2017. Based on these estimates Tesla will have a 3-4x increase in revenue over 2018 which represents a year to year trend upwards, while legacy car companies will see little to no growth. Not bad for such a young American company with arguably the most loyal fanbase in the history of consumer products (up there with Apple during it's heydays). If we look at it this way, Tesla's market valuation is not that high after all! It is also worth keeping in mind that Tesla is already building the cars of the future while the other companies are going to spend insane CAPEX to convert their product lines to an all-electric future (dealers, engineering, supply chain, manufacturing etc...). Not to mention brand story as well... I have a tough time believing BMW can continue to use the line "The Ultimate Driving Machine" without sounding off-base to the public.

Current Market Cap (USD) 2018 Current
BMW 73.5B
MERC 86.1B
TESLA 46.695B

Notice I did not include Toyota, Honda, GM, FCA, as I do not see them as direct competitors (more mainstream less luxury).

Please let me know your thoughts!
Hank

My estimates for 2019:

Mode 3 6k per week X 40 producing weeks = 240k units, ASP $46k
Mode S+X 100k units, ASP $90k

Revenue from cars: $20B
Add 15% from Energy products, total 2019 revenue ~$23B