General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[CatB]

This past week I was on a long train journey across the U.S. and had dinner in the dining car. They run the dining car community-style, meaning they seat you with other passengers. Got into a long talk about tech companies at our table, and one guy asks about Tesla. I say my piece about it, and he launches into a tirade that was like K-Tel's Classic Tesla FUD Hits, Vol. 1:

• Company is DOOMED, don't you know
• It's a PONZI scheme, can't you SEE?
• Elon is a CROOK! He's a LIAR! He's taking you all to the CLEANERS!
• They don't know what they're doing out there in SILICONE VALLEY!
• Company can NEVER manufacture vehicles in VOLUME, it's not IN them!
• Elon secretly is going to sell Tesla to the Chinese, just you WATCH! He's going to ram it right up their a**!

And on and on. He is now highly animated.

The SILICONE VALLEY line is the tell. He doesn't know s***.

Then it is revealed, he comes out with it, proudly, boastingly, to prove he knows what he is talking about: he is an auto dealer, he runs a big dealership, for Toyota, and has just returned from a national sales meeting for Toyota (oh can you imagine the FUD going on in that audience). The other two guests at our table, a husband and wife, look at each other, and then get up and quickly flee. They've had enough.

I point out that Toyota does not sell an electric car. Which triggers him to flip the LP and play Side 2 of K-Tel's Classic Tesla FUD Hits, Vol. 1:

• Toyota can build electric cars PLENTY, they can put MILLIONS and MILLIONS of them on the road whenever they CHOOSE to!

To which I state, so far they have not chosen to, have they. Hmm? I wonder why that might be, hmm? Perhaps they really do not know how, hmm? By the way how is Toyota's hydrogen fuel cell rolling-Hindenburg-on-wheels initiative going, anyway?

For once, he's quiet. To which I add, That is a dead end, the world will not embrace hydrogen. Ever.

To which he responds by changing the subject:

• We invented the PRIUS! We invented hybrids! Nearly every car we sell comes in hybrid form! We know what the world wants!

May be, I say, but Tesla knows what the world needs. What the world needs is a car with no gas tank and no exhaust pipe that runs clean. I see no evidence Toyota understands this, or cares.

To which he plays another K-Tel greatest hits track:

• The market does not DEMAND electric vehicles, they do not WANT them. It would be STUPID for Toyota to build them. Toyota chooses to be SMART, unlike ELON.

To which I state, Tesla is five to ten years beyond Toyota and every other manufacturer in terms of electric vehicles.

Cue the needle-scratching-against-the-record sound and another track starts:

• Tesla doesn't know how to MAKE CARS FOR THE WORLD do you not get it!? They make expensive car for the electric enthusiasts, a tiny group of hobbyists . . . like you.

To which I say, the great Toyota company has been around decades, many many decades. Lots of other car companies have been around for a hundred years or more. Tesla's been around for what, 15 years, and look at how bent out of shape they make you guys. Worried, maybe?

To which he replays an old track:
• They're a PONZI---

To which I interrupt and say, Look, what Toyota and everyone else does not understand is that to build EVs successfully you have to know software. Tesla knows software. Toyota doesn't know s*** about software. Neither does Ford or GM or any of them. They're years behind, and have no core competency in software. And Tesla is one big computer with dozens of processors throughout the car -- and throughout the battery. It's a completely different thing than a gas car.

• But Tesla can't manufacture them in VOLUME! Elon keeps saying 5000 Model 3s, how many times has he been wrong? He'll never do it!

To which I calmly state, well, we'll just see about that. Let's see where our friend Mr. Elon is in July or August. Once Tesla hits 5000 a week then what?

To which he plays another track:

• 5000 a WEEK? I thought it was a MONTH? 5000 a WEEK!? My god man, no way will he ever be able to make 5000 a WEEK, are you nuts? You're delusional!

At this point he's running on automatic, and just switches to Shuffle and old tracks start playing:

• Elon is going to sell to the CHINESE! The whole thing is a TRICK!
• You realize Tesla's just running the old NUMMI plant right? You know about that don't you?
• The Model 3 is a disaster, why can't you see it?
• Tesla is a PONZI SCHEME THROUGH AND THROUGH, why can't you see that!?

To which, as I stand up, ready to walk out of the dining car, having had enough earfuls of a Toyota dealership manager for one evening, I calmly say, "Let's see how things are in 60 days or so. Good night" and walk away.

I am so glad I never caught sight of him on the train after that.

I feel so bad for that guy. EVs are the end of ICE *and* Tesla’s full-lifecycle quality-manufacturing + integrated service/continuous improvement strategy is the end of the stealership model.
Poor guy is in total denial. FUD protects him from facing his fears.
*WHEN* Tesla wins, dealers like him will not be the baby thrown out with the bathwater, they will be the ... um, baby-output thrown out with the bathwater.

 

[Paracelsus]

Future green technology: new solar panels could generate electricity from raindrops
Still a few years away from being perfected, but a fascinating concept and a very informative short video..........

 

[aubreymcfato]

Two days ago I had my first trip in a Tesla, as a passenger.
The owner is one of the few (like, one of the four) Tesla owners here in Modena.
He loves his car, but he's skeptic about the company. The bears points are always the same: they're spending too much, they can't mass manufacture and incumbents will arrive with all their mighty power, Tesla takes money from the Chinese...

It's quite similar to the conversation than @tinm had... Like people who know a-bit-more-than-average think they know a-lot-more-than-average (there's a graph somewhere about this cognitive fallacy, related to the Dunning-Kruger effect).
He said to me he put a lot of people in his car (people who can actually buy a Model S or X), but they stay with their BMW because luxury and comfort are better. He somehow got discouraged by that, I think.
In his defense I can say that he's probably too much an early adopter, and doesn't take into account the fact that people need time to adjust, and that in Modena people are obsessed with ICE (you know, Ferrari, Maserati, here it's a f*****g cult).
He also said "I don't think that EV revolutionize the market", but when I asked him if he wanted to go back, he said that he would definitely buy an EV.
I think he's a rare specimen of a bear Tesla owner, but I'm slowly convincing him ;-)

 

[Words of HABIT]

InsideEVs estimates 6,250 Model 3s in the US in May, plus a couplefew hundred in Canadia.

[Edit: these are just estimates at this point, of course, but if accurate-ish, that's a 61% jump April-to-May in the US, or more like 70% jump if you include Canada. And it's enough to be #1 by a > 2:1 margin over #2.

That is 1562/week. I'm not a fan of InsideEV as they always under estimate the first two months of each quarter. June results from Tesla will set the record straight including adding Canadian deliveries.

 

[Words of HABIT]

CNBC is FUDster, Re-Prining months old news about paint shop fire.

Years old.

 

[theschnell]

This past week I was on a long train journey across the U.S. and had dinner in the dining car. They run the dining car community-style, meaning they seat you with other passengers. Got into a long talk about tech companies at our table, and one guy asks about Tesla. I say my piece about it, and he launches into a tirade that was like K-Tel's Classic Tesla FUD Hits, Vol. 1:

• Company is DOOMED, don't you know
• It's a PONZI scheme, can't you SEE?
• Elon is a CROOK! He's a LIAR! He's taking you all to the CLEANERS!
• They don't know what they're doing out there in SILICONE VALLEY!
• Company can NEVER manufacture vehicles in VOLUME, it's not IN them!
• Elon secretly is going to sell Tesla to the Chinese, just you WATCH! He's going to ram it right up their a**!

And on and on. He is now highly animated.

The SILICONE VALLEY line is the tell. He doesn't know s***.

Then it is revealed, he comes out with it, proudly, boastingly, to prove he knows what he is talking about: he is an auto dealer, he runs a big dealership, for Toyota, and has just returned from a national sales meeting for Toyota (oh can you imagine the FUD going on in that audience). The other two guests at our table, a husband and wife, look at each other, and then get up and quickly flee. They've had enough.

I point out that Toyota does not sell an electric car. Which triggers him to flip the LP and play Side 2 of K-Tel's Classic Tesla FUD Hits, Vol. 1:

• Toyota can build electric cars PLENTY, they can put MILLIONS and MILLIONS of them on the road whenever they CHOOSE to!

To which I state, so far they have not chosen to, have they. Hmm? I wonder why that might be, hmm? Perhaps they really do not know how, hmm? By the way how is Toyota's hydrogen fuel cell rolling-Hindenburg-on-wheels initiative going, anyway?

For once, he's quiet. To which I add, That is a dead end, the world will not embrace hydrogen. Ever.

To which he responds by changing the subject:

• We invented the PRIUS! We invented hybrids! Nearly every car we sell comes in hybrid form! We know what the world wants!

May be, I say, but Tesla knows what the world needs. What the world needs is a car with no gas tank and no exhaust pipe that runs clean. I see no evidence Toyota understands this, or cares.

To which he plays another K-Tel greatest hits track:

• The market does not DEMAND electric vehicles, they do not WANT them. It would be STUPID for Toyota to build them. Toyota chooses to be SMART, unlike ELON.

To which I state, Tesla is five to ten years beyond Toyota and every other manufacturer in terms of electric vehicles.

Cue the needle-scratching-against-the-record sound and another track starts:

• Tesla doesn't know how to MAKE CARS FOR THE WORLD do you not get it!? They make expensive car for the electric enthusiasts, a tiny group of hobbyists . . . like you.

To which I say, the great Toyota company has been around decades, many many decades. Lots of other car companies have been around for a hundred years or more. Tesla's been around for what, 15 years, and look at how bent out of shape they make you guys. Worried, maybe?

To which he replays an old track:
• They're a PONZI---

To which I interrupt and say, Look, what Toyota and everyone else does not understand is that to build EVs successfully you have to know software. Tesla knows software. Toyota doesn't know s*** about software. Neither does Ford or GM or any of them. They're years behind, and have no core competency in software. And Tesla is one big computer with dozens of processors throughout the car -- and throughout the battery. It's a completely different thing than a gas car.

• But Tesla can't manufacture them in VOLUME! Elon keeps saying 5000 Model 3s, how many times has he been wrong? He'll never do it!

To which I calmly state, well, we'll just see about that. Let's see where our friend Mr. Elon is in July or August. Once Tesla hits 5000 a week then what?

To which he plays another track:

• 5000 a WEEK? I thought it was a MONTH? 5000 a WEEK!? My god man, no way will he ever be able to make 5000 a WEEK, are you nuts? You're delusional!

At this point he's running on automatic, and just switches to Shuffle and old tracks start playing:

• Elon is going to sell to the CHINESE! The whole thing is a TRICK!
• You realize Tesla's just running the old NUMMI plant right? You know about that don't you?
• The Model 3 is a disaster, why can't you see it?
• Tesla is a PONZI SCHEME THROUGH AND THROUGH, why can't you see that!?

To which, as I stand up, ready to walk out of the dining car, having had enough earfuls of a Toyota dealership manager for one evening, I calmly say, "Let's see how things are in 60 days or so. Good night" and walk away.

I am so glad I never caught sight of him on the train after that.

Have a friend on Facebook who makes similar spiels, and equally uninformed. Amazing how these people act like they are experts on Tesla’s future without knowing what their weekly Model 3 production goals are or how many they are currently making. How can they claim to know anything about Tesla if they don’t know that?

 

[Thumper]

Calibear, Be sure to visit Point du Hoc when you are at the battlefields.

 

[dc_h]

He can't. This is going to be interesting, because it's going to be smacked down in court in about 20 seconds. Perry might even literally refuse to do it. The utility companies certainly won't operate money-losing plants just because the federal government wants them to.

(Lawyers have already reviewed every law Trump could use to do this and concluded that he has no legal legs to stand on. Probably the only legal move he could make would be to outright purchase the plants from the utilities and make the DoD buy the power.)

Its Perry’s Proposal. It’s ridiculous, but illegal is in the courts hands. Trump has more new jurists appointed than any president. I can’t images dumber policy, but I’m not sure they won’t get some traction.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't really dig this theory.

Why in this case they just don't go long TSLA, and then retire when they go out of business and live from their TSLA investment...

Because they are caught up in the lie they’re telling themselves and that lie is being backed up by the industry. When you are convinced or brainwashed you simply stop seeing any other option than hangong onto the lie.

 

[Words of HABIT]

This past week I was on a long train journey across the U.S. and had dinner in the dining car. They run the dining car community-style, meaning they seat you with other passengers. Got into a long talk about tech companies at our table, and one guy asks about Tesla. I say my piece about it, and he launches into a tirade that was like K-Tel's Classic Tesla FUD Hits, Vol. 1:

• Company is DOOMED, don't you know
• It's a PONZI scheme, can't you SEE?
• Elon is a CROOK! He's a LIAR! He's taking you all to the CLEANERS!
• They don't know what they're doing out there in SILICONE VALLEY!
• Company can NEVER manufacture vehicles in VOLUME, it's not IN them!
• Elon secretly is going to sell Tesla to the Chinese, just you WATCH! He's going to ram it right up their a**!

And on and on. He is now highly animated.

The SILICONE VALLEY line is the tell. He doesn't know s***.

Then it is revealed, he comes out with it, proudly, boastingly, to prove he knows what he is talking about: he is an auto dealer, he runs a big dealership, for Toyota, and has just returned from a national sales meeting for Toyota (oh can you imagine the FUD going on in that audience). The other two guests at our table, a husband and wife, look at each other, and then get up and quickly flee. They've had enough.

I point out that Toyota does not sell an electric car. Which triggers him to flip the LP and play Side 2 of K-Tel's Classic Tesla FUD Hits, Vol. 1:

• Toyota can build electric cars PLENTY, they can put MILLIONS and MILLIONS of them on the road whenever they CHOOSE to!

To which I state, so far they have not chosen to, have they. Hmm? I wonder why that might be, hmm? Perhaps they really do not know how, hmm? By the way how is Toyota's hydrogen fuel cell rolling-Hindenburg-on-wheels initiative going, anyway?

For once, he's quiet. To which I add, That is a dead end, the world will not embrace hydrogen. Ever.

To which he responds by changing the subject:

• We invented the PRIUS! We invented hybrids! Nearly every car we sell comes in hybrid form! We know what the world wants!

May be, I say, but Tesla knows what the world needs. What the world needs is a car with no gas tank and no exhaust pipe that runs clean. I see no evidence Toyota understands this, or cares.

To which he plays another K-Tel greatest hits track:

• The market does not DEMAND electric vehicles, they do not WANT them. It would be STUPID for Toyota to build them. Toyota chooses to be SMART, unlike ELON.

To which I state, Tesla is five to ten years beyond Toyota and every other manufacturer in terms of electric vehicles.

Cue the needle-scratching-against-the-record sound and another track starts:

• Tesla doesn't know how to MAKE CARS FOR THE WORLD do you not get it!? They make expensive car for the electric enthusiasts, a tiny group of hobbyists . . . like you.

To which I say, the great Toyota company has been around decades, many many decades. Lots of other car companies have been around for a hundred years or more. Tesla's been around for what, 15 years, and look at how bent out of shape they make you guys. Worried, maybe?

To which he replays an old track:
• They're a PONZI---

To which I interrupt and say, Look, what Toyota and everyone else does not understand is that to build EVs successfully you have to know software. Tesla knows software. Toyota doesn't know s*** about software. Neither does Ford or GM or any of them. They're years behind, and have no core competency in software. And Tesla is one big computer with dozens of processors throughout the car -- and throughout the battery. It's a completely different thing than a gas car.

• But Tesla can't manufacture them in VOLUME! Elon keeps saying 5000 Model 3s, how many times has he been wrong? He'll never do it!

To which I calmly state, well, we'll just see about that. Let's see where our friend Mr. Elon is in July or August. Once Tesla hits 5000 a week then what?

To which he plays another track:

• 5000 a WEEK? I thought it was a MONTH? 5000 a WEEK!? My god man, no way will he ever be able to make 5000 a WEEK, are you nuts? You're delusional!

At this point he's running on automatic, and just switches to Shuffle and old tracks start playing:

• Elon is going to sell to the CHINESE! The whole thing is a TRICK!
• You realize Tesla's just running the old NUMMI plant right? You know about that don't you?
• The Model 3 is a disaster, why can't you see it?
• Tesla is a PONZI SCHEME THROUGH AND THROUGH, why can't you see that!?

To which, as I stand up, ready to walk out of the dining car, having had enough earfuls of a Toyota dealership manager for one evening, I calmly say, "Let's see how things are in 60 days or so. Good night" and walk away.

I am so glad I never caught sight of him on the train after that.

Tinm, one of the best posts I read on this forum. Thanks for sharing.

I'm sure we all have experience with doubters. Two weeks ago, a very good friend of mine who knows I'm an EV enthusiast made a point to tell me about the poor Tesla M3 breaking and Consumers Report not recommending the car.

Earlier this week I sent him an email: "Consumers Report now recommends Tesla M3 after Over The Air update to improve emergency breaking distances. Tesla Model 3 Gets CR Recommendation After Braking Update. Earlier, Consumers Report stated some of their breaking tests had the M3 beat by the Ford F-150 pick-up. Not anymore. Note that the M3 has the same curb weight as the F-150."

His surprising response: "Very scary everything being software controlled."

My rebuttal: "Scarier would be Fiat Chrysler response sending written notice to 5.4 million customers not to use their Cruise Control because the only way to turn it off is having to put their car in Park."

And now we have 1.2 million Audis being recalled for a 2nd time due to the same fire hazard. We all need to be ambassadors for the EV movement. I support all EVs, the more variants the better.

 

[Reciprocity]

The negative news cycle theory:

I have only been following Tesla closely for 2 years, but before that I recall must of the articles where positive. There was always the cash burn, Bob Lutz and Jim Cramer crap but in general the news was positive. This was after the model X ramp had really started to pickup. Me theory is that during ramps there is a lot of negative news due to how difficult the task is. Even good news is being presented as bad news. One example is that every time there is a production shutdown to improve the ramp, the news spins it as though it was not planned and that it's trouble for the production ramp. Completely ignoring Tesla's comments to the contrary and even included in the quarterly earnings presentation. Even though evidence shows that sheet each shutdown, production had a noticable step up shortly after coming back online.

In a positive cycle, that news would focus on the improvements from previous shutdowns. I think the news cycle will turn positive again soon as model 3 ramp continues to be positive. More than likely by years end and into next year with a couple of profitable qtrs in the books. This could a perfect storm for long term gains.

Another thought on this. Imagine if you could go back in time and change what Elon said about the production ramp for the model 3. What if instead of saying 500,000 by the end of 2018, he instead said that they plan to double the total number of units produced at Fremont in 9 months, and double it again in 9 months after that. Because that is more then likely what will happen and that would have been a big enough statement to move or protect the stock price. Gone would be all this crap about a failed ramp, because frankly doubling production every 9 months is not failure, its pretty much what Tesla has been doing for a decade and its pretty much as fast as fast as anyone could improve production as an upstart auto manufacturer. As a matter of fact, its a requirement to survive and grow and the reason you dont see any new American car companies in the last several decades besides Tesla. Certainly they could have stopped at S/X and made money over the long run, but if you want to keep growing you cant make 1000/w mid sized lux sedans and compete on price. You need the scale that comes with 10k/w to compete. Without the 10k/w you dont have Panasonic committed at the GF1 and you dont have pricing and terms from tier one suppliers and thus you would be unable to compete.

Tesla is doing only exactly what is required to grow and be competitive and they are doing it very well when you put things into perspective. This is why I say you should ignore what Elon says and focus on what Elon and Tesla delivers. Elon lives in a time dilation bubble where time moves much slower and he can get more done, but that bubble does not expand farther then his head.

Once Model 3s hit the ground in mass and over the holidays when family and friends are getting dozens of test drives and as people go back to work and their neighborhoods and give people rides, this negative news cycle will change because the consumers of the news will be clamoring for it. This should coincide very well with 2 qtrs of profits and should be explosive for the stock. I also predict that by the middle of next year that Tesla will finally come out with the refreshed styling on the the S and X. I expect this to be more evolutionary then revolutionary, but it should have some features form the model 3 like the AC and single screen to improve maneuverability. The binnacle screen would be replaced by a Augmented reality HUD, similar to what Panasonic showed off more then a year ago. This refresh and 2170 pack will show up right as the tax credits diminish to $1,850. My new Theory is that Tesla will drop the 75Ds and replace it with a 120D based on the 2170 and continue to make the 100D based on the 18650. This will help Panasonic and will help in the transition of the entire lineup over a year or more. Getting rid of the low margin 75D and replacing it with the higher margin 100D and letting Model 3P fill that vacuum at much higher margins then the S75D. Tesla will have the ability to lower prices at every point in the product line while going more upscale with the 120Ds and still maintain better margins then they had with 75Ds in the lineup because the margin difference between the low end S and the high end Model 3s.

The model 3 also has an incredible range of market segments that it can compete. From all the way down to a Carolla, all the way up to a BMW M5 or AMG E63 or Audi S4/5 and that is without any tax credits. (the caveat here is that I am assuming that Tesla will offer a ludicrous mode for Model 3 to make it competitive with the 5 series and E class level sports cars.)

Do I think that many Carolla customers will buy a model 3? No, but if you are a motivated enough and you have solar or are in a good place for solar, then you can make it happen. This is why the Model 3 being such a sexy car is important. It will drive people into doing the math and will motivate people to cut some expenses to be able to afford the higher model 3 payments because to make it competitive on price you must take into consideration residual value, which is something you dont get back until you sell the car. Even if you never sell the car and you have Solar, the Model 3 will win the marathon with its lower TCO while maint and fuel costs continue to grow for ICE vehicles as they age.

 

[Menifeer]

When you are convinced or brainwashed you simply stop seeing any other option than hangong onto the lie.

That's exactly what "they" say about us...

 

[AlMc]

Because they are caught up in the lie they’re telling themselves and that lie is being backed up by the industry. When you are convinced or brainwashed you simply stop seeing any other option than hangong onto the lie.

That's exactly what "they" say about us...

Agreed. One's perspective can be quite different depending on which 'facts' one choses to believe. Frame of reference is the key. Hopefully we longs have the proper one. It also happens to be the one, if true, that will help our planet and grandchildren's children.

 

[neroden]

Its Perry’s Proposal. It’s ridiculous, but illegal is in the courts hands. Trump has more new jurists appointed than any president. I can’t images dumber policy, but I’m not sure they won’t get some traction.

It's illegal in multiple different ways.

There's enough expert evidence to make the Federal Power Act attempt invalid: it can only be invoked if there's a power emergency and too many experts have stated outright, with long heavily citationed papers, that there isn't (and not one has said that there is). I am sure that even Roberts won't sign off on that attempt.

As for the Defense Production Act, he explicitly can't impose "mandatory allocation or pricing", and he can grant loan guarantees, but not gifts. The loan guarantees have to be bonded and there has to be a credible likelihood of repayment, and frankly the coal companies aren't creditworthy enough to get the bonding. This would be struck down in court.

Under the DPA, he can directly purchase power from the coal plants and use it for the government or resell it, but if he resells it he has to resell it for at least the going market price. Obviously he can't resell it for more than the going market price because nobody will buy it. Obviously the coal plants can't survive on the current market price. Bidding laws prevent him from simply forcing all the government agencies to pay above-market-rate prices. Since he can't store the energy, his only choice is to buy it at an above-market rate and resell it at the market rate -- this is pretty much legit, but *he needs Congressional appropriations* to do that, and I don't think he's going to get them. I guess he can use up the "Defense Production Act Fund", which maxes out at $750 million, and I'm not sure how much money it currently has in it, but that won't get him very far.

What he's actually trying to do is to force grid operators to buy power at inflated prices from uneconomic power plants, and that, he *explicitly* does not have the power to do. It's banned by the DPA! As usual with Trump, he's completely incompetent. This has zero chance of standing up in court.

I mean, geez, I don't want to give him ideas, but I could think of more effective ways to sling subsidies to the coal plants than the dumb ideas he's proposing. Stuff which actually would have a chance of standing up in court.

 

[neroden]

His surprising response: "Very scary everything being software controlled."

Heh, he hasn't realized that everything's been software controlled in all cars for years? I miss the manual chain connection on the old emergency brakes, which was the last piece of braking hardware to be completely non-electronics-dependent.

 

[dc_h]

I don't really dig this theory.

Why in this case they just don't go long TSLA, and then retire when they go out of business and live from their TSLA investment...

In the 90’s it used to be called mindshare. People build affiliations based on personal and professional knowledge, which may be tied to their current and future earnings. I’ve watched people fight over Netscape vs Microsoft and Microsoft v Novell and on and on. Usually if you step back you can see who’s really winning. On a trip to visit Netscape back in 1994 we saw Microsoft’s new tech partnership across the street, I think it was Deloitte, who originally was going to partner with Netscape.
I had thought Netscape was going to kick ass, but they had only built an application layer, they didn’t have their own OS or app partners. Microsoft sold a $1000 server license for every 1000 I spent on Netscape and had the means to build competitive products as a close follower. Elon gets this and is building the whole infrastructure. GM gets no cut of sales, no dealer partnerships. Tesla delivers fuel to charging stations, no one else’s schedule, no one ok with close follower role. Batteries would be a huge vulnerability that most VC’s would encourage a founder to outsource. Hyundai has hit a production wall, while Tesla has a tsunami at its back.
I see competitive advantage in Tesla’s business model stretching out several years and a still surprising lack of serious competition. VW seems to want to jump in, but think they are only now getting the scale of the supply chain problem they face. All the others, outside of China, are pure niche players without any ability to scale past 100,000 ev’s for several years. When I invested in Tesla in 2013, I thought they had a five year head start. In the intervening 5 years I see little progress in closing the gap. The only exceptions are Waymo and GM cruise. Elon has stated that AP is going to be lame driver, better lame driver then pretty good then great. We seem to be at stage two lame driver. Good at holding lanes, but like my HS pal who drove full speed into the back of our big Lebowski grade a yellow Ford Torino. The next stage pretty good driver could be announced next week or next year. It seems like a harder problem than the Elon thought. Hopefully the addition of so many new 3’s will speed up the hive mind.
Here’s to the future, I’m hoping to hear about it next week at the shareholders meeting.

 

[pp626]

Is there any evidence yet that the Fremont line has restarted?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Is there any evidence yet that the Fremont line has restarted?

Seems there have been more IN reporting starting yesterday
VIN Assignment

 

[neroden]

Is there any evidence yet that the Fremont line has restarted?

I doubt we'll hear anything until Monday either way.

 

[bdy0627]

The negative news cycle theory:

I have only been following Tesla closely for 2 years, but before that I recall must of the articles where positive. There was always the cash burn, Bob Lutz and Jim Cramer crap but in general the news was positive. This was after the model X ramp had really started to pickup. Me theory is that during ramps there is a lot of negative news due to how difficult the task is. Even good news is being presented as bad news. One example is that every time there is a production shutdown to improve the ramp, the news spins it as though it was not planned and that it's trouble for the production ramp. Completely ignoring Tesla's comments to the contrary and even included in the quarterly earnings presentation. Even though evidence shows that sheet each shutdown, production had a noticable step up shortly after coming back online.

In a positive cycle, that news would focus on the improvements from previous shutdowns. I think the news cycle will turn positive again soon as model 3 ramp continues to be positive. More than likely by years end and into next year with a couple of profitable qtrs in the books. This could a perfect storm for long term gains.

I agree. I think we are going to see a shift in the news cycle sooner rather than later. I believe it will start to happen as we cross over into 4,000+/week, along with the reviews of the AWD and performance model 3s that have refinements since the early production units. The financial news media will react to the stock turning positive, fueling that fire. We should start to see that when the stock breaks out above the range. I think this could start as early as later this month but may still take another month or two.