General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

first of all, it is at least MORE than 1b, as i understand it it is SEVERAL billion dollars. If we say its only 2 billion, that would be 300k by your calculation. That is three times as much as Tesla produced last year. And dont come with 500k M3 per year, plans are one thing, and as you can see reality is a totally different thing with tesla.

Oh you can do better than that! Why just 2 billion? As long as we make up numbers that were not in the original article, why not 10 or 100? And BTW 300k is roughly the number of cars Tesla will make this year. In 2018. Whereas BMW just signed the deal so production will start when exactly? In 2 or 3 years? That's not production this year but once that factory has been built and has ramped. You know, plans are one thing.

 

[Gifford 3]

My Mandarin is a little bid rusty ;-) but that supposed to be the confirmation of the Tesla GF in China.

Can someone with the right language skills confirm? Big news!

My Mandarin is a little bid rusty ;-) but that supposed to be the confirmation of the Tesla GF in China.

Can someone with the right language skills confirm? Big news!

Only Part 3, point 8 related to EV automarkers, it reads:

III. Manufacturing

8 . EV Automarkers could be excluded from joint venture with China company share requirements of 50% / 50% in relation to the special control arrangement of foreign investment in China.
In year 2020, will cancel the 50/50 joint venture rule limit for business car manufacturing. In 2022, will cancel the limit of Automarkers to establish two joint ventures in China.

 

[pz1975]

first of all, it is at least MORE than 1b, as i understand it it is SEVERAL billion dollars. If we say its only 2 billion, that would be 300k by your calculation. That is three times as much as Tesla produced last year. And dont come with 500k M3 per year, plans are one thing, and as you can see reality is a totally different thing with tesla.

The irony in your post is delicious. You put down Tesla’s aspirations for 500K per year as simply “plans”, while in the same paragraph trump BMW’s aspiration for 300K (your number, may be lower or higher) as if it’s already true, claiming it is 3x more than Tesla made last year.

The BMW announcement is just a “plan” too, and at this point much less believable than Tesla’s since Tesla is actually actively working towards their goal. BMW has indicated they will invest $ in a battery factory. That’s it. No “plans” for an actual car factory, charging network, etc.

 

[SunCatcher]

Elon paint shop picture = "Don't panic" we are golden.

Speculation; Gold painted car in this photo represents Tesla's "Golden Spike"? = Build for USA delivery #200,000?

 

[mekberg]

Speculation; Gold painted car in this photo represents Tesla's "Golden Spike"? = Build for USA delivery #200,000?

Ehhh if you look at the car behind it in the line it is also the same goldish color. Pretty sure this is a primer.

 

[avoigt]

first of all, it is at least MORE than 1b, as i understand it it is SEVERAL billion dollars. If we say its only 2 billion, that would be 300k by your calculation. That is three times as much as Tesla produced last year. And dont come with 500k M3 per year, plans are one thing, and as you can see reality is a totally different thing with tesla.

I want to dedicate the attached small video to you for all the effort and endless lifting you did......

MadPolak on Twitter

 

[scaesare]

Here are some more interesting details about Berenberg Bank visiting the GF:

"Among the key improvements made to the already industry-leading thermal management system in the Model S/X are the new aluminum cooling radiators that surround each individual cell in the Model 3 pack," Alexander Haissl, an analyst at the firm, told clients in a note he wrote Wednesday after taking a tour of Tesla's so-called Gigafactory.


"This technology, which helps to minimise battery degradation and reduce charging times, is a remarkable piece of system engineering that has been largely completely overlooked as a key competitive advantage for Tesla compared to other OEMs offering more primitive solutions."

Hmm... this is interesting. When I originally saw the cooling apparatus in the Munroe teardown pics, I assumed them to be glycol coolant tubes similar to the existing pack architecture:

But now that I loot at it more closely, it looks like it terminates in some sort of sealed chamber, rather than a fluid coupling. There are also what appear to be "channels" in the ribbon structure.

Is this an implementation of the heat-pipe patent that Tesla filed some time back?

 

[MP3Mike]

But now that I loot at it more closely, it looks like it terminates in some sort of sealed chamber, rather than a fluid coupling. There are also what appear to be "channels" in the ribbon structure.

Is this an implementation of the heat-pipe patent that Tesla filed some time back?

I'm pretty sure it is essentially the same thing used in the S&X packs. I think you really can't see the fluid connectors, that are black, between the different cooling pipes.

It is pretty sad that they think this is new in the Model 3...

 

[avoigt]

Hmm... this is interesting. When I originally saw the cooling apparatus in the Munroe teardown pics, I assumed them to be glycol coolant tubes similar to the existing pack architecture:

But now that I loot at it more closely, it looks like it terminates in some sort of sealed chamber, rather than a fluid coupling. There are also what appear to be "channels" in the ribbon structure.

Is this an implementation of the heat-pipe patent that Tesla filed some time back?

My thoughts,

Aluminium is a metal that scores high to transfer heat. I could assume that the long divider medal you see here wrapped between the cell rows are the aluminum elements he talks about.

Controlling heat is all about helping to guide the heat to the outside. Cooling is exactly that. The green past could be a material that is intended to enlarge the surface between the battery cell and the aluminum divider and is good at taken heat away as well as guiding it to the aluminium strip.

 

[jelloslug]

Speculation; Gold painted car in this photo represents Tesla's "Golden Spike"? = Build for USA delivery #200,000?

The color has been discussed before: TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[replicant]

Expect more pro-fossil / anti-EV lobbying in Washington: SoftBank Hires Ford’s Top Lobbyist as It Beefs Up Its Beltway Presence

The move comes as Ford and other auto makers are seeking to court influence with the White House on a range of issues, including President Donald Trump’s efforts to ease fuel-economy rules and the threat of new tariffs on American auto imports.

Softbank has become the financial arm of Saudi Arabia via its $100B "Vision Fund" (for vision? lol) in which other traditional auto-manufacturers are investing (like Daimler).

Does anyone has a recap of the fund's investments so far?

 

[justvisiting]

Oh you can do better than that! Why just 2 billion? As long as we make up numbers that were not in the original article, why not 10 or 100? And BTW 300k is roughly the number of cars Tesla will make this year. In 2018. Whereas BMW just signed the deal so production will start when exactly? In 2 or 3 years? That's not production this year but once that factory has been built and has ramped. You know, plans are one thing.

First, the Article says "Milliarden", which usually means a couple - several billions. So im not making anything up.
Second, Tesla will not be building 300k cars this year. Imo, they wont even be close.
Third, of course it is a plan that will take time. Unlike Tesla, BMW is know for keeping timelines. In the meantime, BMW already sold 100k electrified vehicles last year, about 60k of them EVs. So its not like they are far behind Tesla, and they did that (and will do the new ix3 next year WITHOUT the billions in new cells, those will come on top)

 

[mongo]

Hmm... this is interesting. When I originally saw the cooling apparatus in the Munroe teardown pics, I assumed them to be glycol coolant tubes similar to the existing pack architecture:

But now that I loot at it more closely, it looks like it terminates in some sort of sealed chamber, rather than a fluid coupling. There are also what appear to be "channels" in the ribbon structure.

Is this an implementation of the heat-pipe patent that Tesla filed some time back?

There is a cross pipe between ribbons (black feature between ribbons). It is capped with the round feature visible on the near ribbon. The ribbon is a flattened tube for cooling with an electrically insulated cover.

 

[mrdoubleb]

First, the Article says "Milliarden", which usually means a couple - several billions. So im not making anything up.
Second, Tesla will not be building 300k cars this year. Imo, they wont even be close.
Third, of course it is a plan that will take time. Unlike Tesla, BMW is know for keeping timelines. In the meantime, BMW already sold 100k electrified vehicles last year, about 60k of them EVs. So its not like they are far behind Tesla, and they did that (and will do the new ix3 next year WITHOUT the billions in new cells, those will come on top)

Ok, 300k may have been a bit of a stretch, but i am happy to come back to this post and discuss with you on January 3rd. My money is on 250-300k (am only willing to narrow it down once we see Q3 unfold, but if they never go above 5k/week with the M3 this year, S+X+M3 totals should be 250k at the least.)

But, i mean really, your comeback is "BMW has sold 100k electrified cars last year"?! Are you referring to their hybrids which can go as much as 25-30km on a charge? I know companies like to count them as EVs as well as it boosts their numbers, but I am pretty sure that kind of BS will not fly with this crowd here. Sorry. In terms of real EVs, they have celebrated manufacturing 100k i3s 4 years after launch. The Model 3 should get there by the end of Q3.

I am not hating on BMW. Great company, great cars. But even among the German brands, it seems like they are behind. If we are talking about plans, VW has signed a 50 Bn Euro deal to buy batteries over the next few years. I am somewhat skeptical about the wording (hint, they like to use "electrified" as well), but that`s ate least closer to a betting-the-company type of commitment.

 

[ggr]

Mod: I moved the couple of posts that had videos of paint protection to a separate thread. Please don't clutter this one with more local referrals. There are other threads about this, many of them. Especially, go looking in your local forums for local referrals. --ggr.

 

[Navin]

Honest question for mods. Why do you let the paid trolls post here without moderation? All it does is dilute the quality of this forum and make good people leave.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Mod: I moved the couple of posts that had videos of paint protection to a separate thread. Please don't clutter this one with more local referrals. There are other threads about this, many of them. Especially, go looking in your local forums for local referrals. --ggr.

Thanks, I knew they were in the wrong place. I appreciate putting them in the right place.

Dan

 

[ggr]

Honest question for mods. Why do you let the paid trolls post here without moderation? All it does is dilute the quality of this forum and make good people leave.

Mod: Rule 1 of moderation is that we don't talk about moderation. You might be very surprised. --ggr

 

[avoigt]

VW is announcing to stop production for 1-2 days per week in their main location in Wolfsburg as well as some other plants. This will start after the summer pause. They inform that in Q3 and Q4 they will also stop production partly.

Reason: The new more strict emission testing and certification WLTP - that has been announced a few years ago.

Its somehow not clear to me how they could not prepare for this in advance and properly....

Vier-Tage-Woche: Auch Volkswagen drosselt die Produktion wegen Abgasregeln

 

[Lhan]

Ehhh if you look at the car behind it in the line it is also the same goldish color. Pretty sure this is a primer.

Elon burning cash on gold primer.