JRP3
Hyperactive Member
No surprise with the SA headline Tesla hits Model 3 mark a few hours late - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
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Now, the TMC forum expects a sincere apology from you for spreading FUD in light of the news:
Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week, sources tell Reuters
Exclusive: Tesla hits Model 3 manufacturing milestone, hours after...
Yeah, perhaps not everybody signed it on the same day or the second 5000 was reached. And that would suggest that the milestone was actually reached on 30th June. Well spotted. And what's to say they reached exactly 5000 and then stopped? Or that it was only reached just before everybody signed this thing. I think some people might have been jumping the gun with this (looks your way, CNBC).
Mike Smith
Active Member
Why are people assuming the employees talking to Reuters are suddenly telling the truth? They're obviously no friends of Tesla, so most likely they actually beat the 5k target and they're trying to tarnish the news by saying it was actually a few hours late.
I strongly suspect that they will manage to redesign GA2 and GA3 -- and perhaps even GA4 -- to get to 2500/week each, but that still requires building a GA5 to get to 10K.
To get to 10K...
Looks like they have to build one or two more paint lines, which is a big pain.
Looks like they have to build more battery pack lines, which at least they are already prepared for.
Looks like they may have to build another body line.
There may be bottlenecks even further back in production (white seats certainly are a bottleneck for example). All costs money. I'm sure they're planning it and starting in on it immediately, but don't expect to exceed 6K/week until the fourth quarter.
A big take away from 5k/week.
Tesla employees knowledge base and experience level on how to produce evs at scale has shot up significantly. This is a premiere skill set globally unmatched. You can’t just buy this, it has to be earned as Tesla has done. Other car companies have to do the same and that’s going to take time and grind as Tesla has done. There was a reason there was only the “big three” in America and this kind of organizational experience and knowledge creation was it. I know elon doesn’t like moats, but achieving this milestone potentially leads to one by default.
Tesla employees knowledge base and experience level on how to produce evs at scale has shot up significantly. This is a premiere skill set globally unmatched. You can’t just buy this, it has to be earned as Tesla has done. Other car companies have to do the same and that’s going to take time and grind as Tesla has done. There was a reason there was only the “big three” in America and this kind of organizational experience and knowledge creation was it. I know elon doesn’t like moats, but achieving this milestone potentially leads to one by default.
First of all this is a credible picture IMO and we probably all agree that this marks the achievement of 5k/w around the night between June 30th and July 1st. There are quite more July 1st on that board though than June 30th.
Secondly there is much more information on that picture than just names and dates, actually I find a lot of numbers like 225, 230,up to 566 (maybe more). Hard to say if that is there shift achievements but maybe what they did contribute on their GA. Lots of 5000 mentioning as well which makes sense.
About Reuters: Didn't they have a report out just a few days ago stating that Tesla missed the 5K/W and have several sources talking about low production # per shift? Frankly I have a hard time nowadays believing anything what Reuter does claim and also in there sources. (Did I really say that?). So the board is one piece of information but what Reuters wrote a different story for me.
Also we have seen other Tesla employees tweeting not approved information before. Remember the GF1 announcement that they made it? His tweet got deleted as well so it looks like a pattern.
However what counts is that we have a 5K/w party confirmed last night and that is great news! We all likely won't be able to acknowledge how it had been down there at line and having been a production worker at the start of my career counting produced pieces per day I want to congratulate all of them to make it happen.
Will that make the shorts cover? I am not convinced and therefore ..... expect more to come .....
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^^ Did you miss the /s at the end? It stands for sarcasm.
Like when somebody calls CNBC a trustworthy news source full of journalistic integrity. Clearly sarcastic!
Thx for clarifying.
It seems I’m not digital minded enough, even thoug I’m driving digital for 3 years.
SebastianR
Active Member
We will see. We have an opportunity to test the theory about shorts outlined in the most excellent thread here. If the key point of the shorts is to cut-off access to capital, then we will see a magical change over the coming weeks and months: at 5k Model 3/week even the most dedicated short will understand that Tesla will be able to "grow organically" and won't need further capital through either equity or dept.
If however, this is a campaign funded by fossil fuel industries, then the shorts won't relent. Simple as that
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Tesla Q 1
Vehicle delivered......29,980
Auto Revenue....2,735,317
Energy &storage....410,022
Service and other....263,412
Total Q 1.....3,408,751
Tesla Q 2
Yahoo average Revenue estimates ..4.26 B
My guesstimate
M3,25k@55k=1.375 B
S&X,23K@100k=2.3 B
All other revenues =700M
Total Revenues=4.37 B
Tesla Q 3
Yahoo average revenue estimates 5.48 B
My guesstimate
M3, 50k@60k=3.0 B
S&X, 25k@100k=2.5 B
Other Revenues =800 M
Total Revenue =6.3 B
This is just my back of enevelope math, but good probability to occur. As for the shorts, they will be slaughter, they will still argue 5 K ,M3 production non sustainable, no one will buy into it, they claimed previously 2 K wasn’t sustainable, I think end of Q 3, M3 should be at 6K run rate.
Vehicle delivered......29,980
Auto Revenue....2,735,317
Energy &storage....410,022
Service and other....263,412
Total Q 1.....3,408,751
Tesla Q 2
Yahoo average Revenue estimates ..4.26 B
My guesstimate
M3,25k@55k=1.375 B
S&X,23K@100k=2.3 B
All other revenues =700M
Total Revenues=4.37 B
Tesla Q 3
Yahoo average revenue estimates 5.48 B
My guesstimate
M3, 50k@60k=3.0 B
S&X, 25k@100k=2.5 B
Other Revenues =800 M
Total Revenue =6.3 B
This is just my back of enevelope math, but good probability to occur. As for the shorts, they will be slaughter, they will still argue 5 K ,M3 production non sustainable, no one will buy into it, they claimed previously 2 K wasn’t sustainable, I think end of Q 3, M3 should be at 6K run rate.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Bottom line is that it doesn't matter what Tesla does or doesn't do, there will ALWAYS be very vocal individuals that will find fault. That's what they do. They are more interested in stirring the pot, writing clickbait and creating turmoil.
So, I would suggest that the Tesla workers, supporters, and true investors revel in the milestones they reach, enjoy each other's accomplishments and move on.
Personally, I refuse to engage these types of people anymore. They will never be satisfied. They will never acknowledge accomplishments. They will always look for ways to suppress the stock. They will continually move the goalposts. They will always try to bring about the company's demise.
Just keep doing what you're doing all you phenomenal administrators, designers, engineers, and workers at Tesla. We all believe in you and what you are doing. A heart felt congratulations from this Model 3 reservation...and now order holder!
Dan
So, I would suggest that the Tesla workers, supporters, and true investors revel in the milestones they reach, enjoy each other's accomplishments and move on.
Personally, I refuse to engage these types of people anymore. They will never be satisfied. They will never acknowledge accomplishments. They will always look for ways to suppress the stock. They will continually move the goalposts. They will always try to bring about the company's demise.
Just keep doing what you're doing all you phenomenal administrators, designers, engineers, and workers at Tesla. We all believe in you and what you are doing. A heart felt congratulations from this Model 3 reservation...and now order holder!
Dan
I think we have a lot of time between now and q2 report in august. 5k/week is a big start to stock offensive. I think Elon will announce 6k/week at the conference call. Gigafactory China at some point between now and then too.We will see. We have an opportunity to test the theory about shorts outlined in the most excellent thread here. If the key point of the shorts is to cut-off funding to capital, then we will see a magical change over the coming weeks and months: at 5k Model 3/week even the most dedicated short will understand that Tesla will be able to "grow organically" and won't need further capital through either equity or dept.
If however, this is a campaign funded by fossil fuel industries, then the shorts won't relent. Simple as that
But I’m also looking for Tesla Energy news to pick up and show record revenue and growth. Last half of the year is traditionally significant revenue pick up on solar. Also, Elon and team have alluded to back half being significant with energy storage as well.
The Australia success news as well as the impact Tesla has made in Puerto Rico is getting around the world as I write this... coupled with increased production... I’m feeling big global announcements are coming soon. Maybe even solar roof partnerships with some major domestic home builders... a lot potentially coming.
My take on the two Reuters' "employee" leak stories this week.
The first reported production will be short with the estimated number to be just above 4K, citing production rate at mid week. The second story reported production actually hit 5K, not extrapolated production rate.
Assuming (ok, big assumption), that both stories are true; the underlying story is the production rate on the last days must be more than 5K, significantly more.
IMO, the wildcard in all this the Sprung BFT, where Tesla was confident enough to let the NYT photographed GA4 inside. I still think the reason for GA4 not being built down the middle of BFT, but along the north half, which will leave room for GA5 running in twin parallel. Following the more traditional approach to automation, people first then robot (unlike GA3), BFT is the real sweetness in all this (as Elon eluded, calling it "sweet"). The path to 10K is a more automated BFT.
The first reported production will be short with the estimated number to be just above 4K, citing production rate at mid week. The second story reported production actually hit 5K, not extrapolated production rate.
Assuming (ok, big assumption), that both stories are true; the underlying story is the production rate on the last days must be more than 5K, significantly more.
IMO, the wildcard in all this the Sprung BFT, where Tesla was confident enough to let the NYT photographed GA4 inside. I still think the reason for GA4 not being built down the middle of BFT, but along the north half, which will leave room for GA5 running in twin parallel. Following the more traditional approach to automation, people first then robot (unlike GA3), BFT is the real sweetness in all this (as Elon eluded, calling it "sweet"). The path to 10K is a more automated BFT.
If they really learn how to assemble cars efficiently in tents, they can start making cars in China even before the GF is completely built.
Remember that post I made about the Boeing 737? Yeah.
Remember that post I made about the Boeing 737? Yeah.
We will see. We have an opportunity to test the theory about shorts outlined in the most excellent thread here. If the key point of the shorts is to cut-off access to capital, then we will see a magical change over the coming weeks and months: at 5k Model 3/week even the most dedicated short will understand that Tesla will be able to "grow organically" and won't need further capital through either equity or dept.
If however, this is a campaign funded by fossil fuel industries, then the shorts won't relent. Simple as that
Talking about big oils involvement, unfortunately I have seen over the decades my worst nightmares come true about involvement of different industries and interest groups in efforts where large funds have been used to influence illegally the public opinion. And that is actually what short do in our case to bring a treat to their industry down called Tesla.
So my short answer is I would be very much surprised if some of the shorts aware or not aware are not funded by that 100 Trillion $ industry.
Now that remember it, Tesla already has a massive factory site in Hongzhou which is “down the road” from Shanghai. It is the Silevo cell/panel production site. Had an option to expand the site to 350MW production (which is pretty huge).
It wouldn’t be a stretch if they just take over this site and have a notable head start in getting China Gigafactory-auto prod site ahead of any market expectation.
It wouldn’t be a stretch if they just take over this site and have a notable head start in getting China Gigafactory-auto prod site ahead of any market expectation.
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