Gigacapacitor?

[Krugerrand]

I feel like the engineer that recommended scrubbing the Challenger launch because he saw the risk of launching in sub-zero conditions as too high for safety reasons. The pointy-haired NASA managers ignored him, launched anyway and destroyed the shuttle and its 7 crew members. Hopefully, Tesla can recover if this turns out to be a mistake.

Money vs people's lives. Totally not understanding the analogy.

I'm doubtful that any email would change their minds at this point.

But posting it on a *fans of -* forum would? Again,

It seems like Elon is caught between a rock and a hard place and is being forced into this to avoid the loss of momentum when they can't produce any more cars because there just aren't any enough batteries to put into them.

You actually think he just pulled this Giga Factory idea out of his pocket last week? I imagine he knew he'd be doing this a long time ago, like when he first put together his Secret Master Plan, he knew that one of the likely outcomes (as he likes to say) would be that he needed to build his own battery factory to reduce battery costs enough to produce the affordable mass market car.

Please, the one doing the forcing here is Elon Musk; right down the car industry's throat.

 

[bonnie]

Whoa. What just happened? I think I'm reading that Bob Carver has come on TMC, a forum completely independent of Tesla Motors, to prevent Tesla from making a big mistake with the Gigafactory because he knows about another technology that he cannot tell us (or Elon) or anyone else about.

How is that supposed to work? Were we supposed to write letters for him? Or? What am I missing here?

 

[772]

Whoa. What just happened? I think I'm reading that Bob Carver has come on TMC, a forum completely independent of Tesla Motors, to prevent Tesla from making a big mistake with the Gigafactory because he knows about another technology that he cannot tell us (or Elon) or anyone else about.

How is that supposed to work? Were we supposed to write letters for him? Or? What am I missing here?

Forum | Tesla Motors

I'm sure they would love to hear from him.

 

[MikeC]

Whoa. What just happened? I think I'm reading that Bob Carver has come on TMC, a forum completely independent of Tesla Motors, to prevent Tesla from making a big mistake with the Gigafactory because he knows about another technology that he cannot tell us (or Elon) or anyone else about.

How is that supposed to work? Were we supposed to write letters for him? Or? What am I missing here?

You're missing the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that he's trying to instill.

 

[bonnie]

You're missing the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that he's trying to instill.

Got it. Now it all makes sense. Thank you.

 

[jerry33]

How is that supposed to work? Were we supposed to write letters for him? Or? What am I missing here?

Every week there is at least one new technology that will
a) turn the battery world on it's head,
b) create batteries with X times more capacity than current ones,
c) will replace batteries entirely,
d) lower the cost by some significant fraction.

I don't recall when I read the first one, but the pace of press releases hasn't slowed. Funny that none of these ever make it past the first press release. As far as I know:

1. Batteries improve at about 8% per year and a major change comes once every five to ten years as getting quality production isn't simple.

2. Super capacitors have low energy density and the improvements don't seem to happen as fast as improvements in batteries.

3. Flywheels that can store enough energy tend to self destruct and turn into plasma--there are other problems as well, but that's the big one.

4. Mr. Fusion isn't yet ready to ship.

5. Most others violate the first law of thermodynamics.

 

[dave]

Y'all are getting trolled pretty bad here.

 

[bonnie]

Y'all are getting trolled pretty bad here.

We were totally unaware of that.

 

[Norbert]

Well, the Gigafactory is a very large investment, and needs some time to pay off. So if there was some other battery tech around the corner, it might make sense to wait for that a year or two. However I'm sure Tesla is very well informed about upcoming battery tech, and carefully looked at all options. So I think we can conclude that there is nothing around the corner that's worth waiting for at this point, given the amount of flexibility that will be designed into the factory. Of course, that's arguing backwards, and assumes Tesla/Panasonic/etc know what they are doing.

 

[aronth5]

We were totally unaware of that.

Better then getting Rickroll'd:smile:
I know stay on track!

 

[dauger]

So if there was some other battery tech around the corner, it might make sense to wait for that a year or two.

Triggering a competitor to use allegedly-superior battery tech to make electric cars is consistent with Tesla Motors' mission "to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport". I think Elon would tell them "Go ahead and give it a shot." Meanwhile Tesla's plan continues.

 

[moollar]

Triggering a competitor to use allegedly-superior battery tech to make electric cars is consistent with Tesla Motors' mission "to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport". I think Elon would tell them "Go ahead and give it a shot." Meanwhile Tesla's plan continues.

I reckon another nail has been firmly hit on the head with this one.....

 

[Norbert]

Triggering a competitor to use allegedly-superior battery tech to make electric cars is consistent with Tesla Motors' mission "to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport". I think Elon would tell them "Go ahead and give it a shot." Meanwhile Tesla's plan continues.

Plus, after waiting for such a battery tech, there'd still be no guarantee than an even better tech isn't around the next corner.

 

[VolkerP]

Hi Guys,

excellent points made between, have to say, vitriolic remarks.

I think Bob has a point that Li-Ion is not the end of history. Look at how battery chemistry evolved WRT energy density. Sure there will be a successor some day, be it battery like or capacitor like storage device.

When selecting the correct chemistry for the GigaFactory, the competition is NOT on the energy density scale. And I think here is were Bob judges wrongly. The GigaFactory's main objectives are

• start production in 2017
• ramp up to 35GWh of yearly cell production
• cost no more than $5bn
• undercut current cell production costs by at least 30%

These objectives cannot be met with any technology that is at the "secret lab" stadium as of now.


Others made the point that Tesla will design the factory with maximum flexibility in mind to allow upgrading it. Just look at what huge part of the investment is independent of the cell chemistry

• building, access way, parking, railroad connection
• logistics and handling of raw materials
• module production, pack production and testing
• power & water supply, waste water treatment
• renewable energy supply and storage
• hiring a work force of 6,500

So I guess the anode/cathode/electrolyte production, cell cap and can production, and the winding machines are a rather minor part of total invest.

 

[techmaven]

I think Bob has a point that Li-Ion is not the end of history. Look at how battery chemistry evolved WRT energy density. Sure there will be a successor some day, be it battery like or capacitor like storage device.

Geek alert. I find it funny that the Panasonic NCR18650A is off the chart posted. 675 Wh/L. 258 Wh/kg.

 

[ElSupreme]

20 years? If a competitor uses a much cheaper technology in 3 years which has much more of a range, that would put a big dent in Tesla's growth curve.

How would a 'competitor' be able to use a cheaper technology in 3 years, when Tesla is not able to. The supercaps(whatever theoretical energy storage your are touting) would have to come from somewhere.

How is GM, Nissan, whoever going to buy cells in significant volume to displace LiIon in 3 years?
And if they are able to buy them in 3 years, why won't Tesla be able to buy them. Because they have a battery factory in the desert somewhere?

 

[lolachampcar]

and even with a magic battery, how can you change the culture of any large ICE OEM in three years without a catastrophic event spurring the change? Any new technology will find its way to those that can use it as that is where it has the most value. I can only think of one OEM that intends to use an enormous number of batteries in the near future.

 

[Bob Carver]

How would a 'competitor' be able to use a cheaper technology in 3 years, when Tesla is not able to. The supercaps(whatever theoretical energy storage your are touting) would have to come from somewhere.

How is GM, Nissan, whoever going to buy cells in significant volume to displace LiIon in 3 years?
And if they are able to buy them in 3 years, why won't Tesla be able to buy them. Because they have a battery factory in the desert somewhere?

Exclusive agreements will likely result from this. If Tesla gets the exclusive, great, it's a win situation. But, it could be that GM buys up all the production in an exclusive contract.

If it's going to cost Tesla $200/kWh for the Li-ion batteries three years from now, and a competitor like GovernmentMotors can do it for half the price, where does that leave Tesla when their goal is hundreds of thousands of cars to be produced in six years? The batteries are the most cost component standing in the way of achieving mass market status.

It's a moot point since Tesla has now been made aware of this issue. And, since that was my goal, I likely won't be posting anything more about it. Mission accomplished.

 

[palmer_md]

Thanks for your effort, though I think Tesla already knew that if GM could buy battery's at half the cost that Tesla could, they would be in trouble.

 

[Johan]

Yeah Bob. Tesla Motors Club forum is where Tesla go and check the facts before all $5Bn investments.