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Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors
- Thread starter CapitalistOppressor
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- TSLA
It's 50 minutes past D-Hour now. As far as this one goes, I'm calling it "Sell on Rumor/Buy on News" - that is, we'll see a pretty good day tomorrow and through this week.
I'm NOT, however, going to pontificate on the next falling anvil - the debt ceiling negotiations. That's waaaaaay off in the long term (two weeks
).
I'm NOT, however, going to pontificate on the next falling anvil - the debt ceiling negotiations. That's waaaaaay off in the long term (two weeks
).If I had to guess, I think the Democrats will give in first and give the Republicans the keys to the kingdom, as they always do, unfortunately. The only way any kind of sanity can be restored in DC is if the Democrats and the President grow a spine and show the Republicans who's boss. Lastly, the shutdown is politically disastrous for the Republicans in 2014.
CR = Continuing Resolution.
It's a temporary funding bill to continue government operations at whatever funding levels and authorities were set before. It's a way to keep the government operating when there is a failure to pass a budget and the necessary appropriations bills.
It wasn't back in 1995-1996. The Republicans continued to hold congress until 2006. Hardly a disaster.
And that was back when the media was 100% liberal prior to Fox News, Breitbart, Drudge Report, the internet new media, etc. Now the GOP has plenty of media spin defending their actions.
90% of the GOP congressmen don't have competitive districts. This shutdown won't affect control of the house.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm going to guess that since I was not previously posting in the thread this was directed at me? Even if not, I'd say that anyone reading this board is an "involved party" and has a vested interest when conversation is stifled. Excessive moderation has been a long term complaint on this board, this is just the most recent example. I think it's worth letting people have a discussion while waiting to see if a problem actually arises, rather than doing a preemptive strike.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
No. It wasnt. I was referring to the overly general "The moderators are a bit out of control here" comment.
Broad brush comments are equally out of line. We have a rule here at work. You don't get to complain about a group. You complain about specific actions. It keeps things from escalating and stops the finger pointing. If there is an issue, take it up with a specific person.
Saying things like the moderators are out of control just is not helpful to anyone. New members of the forum have no context for a comment like that. Moderators who work hard and put in many hours are insulted. Really, what's the point of that other than to cause problems? It certainly isn't about finding a solution.
Note that I didn't say anything about there being a problem about disagreeing with the mods. I have no problem with that. We will all have different opinions at time and I assume that we all come from a place of good intent. It's the comments that are designed to do nothing but cause trouble that bother me.
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Personally, even though it can never be 100% perfect, I think the moderators here do an outstanding job.
We should all keep in mind that this is a potentially problematic thread because while 99% of us are Tesla fans, we are a political amalgamation. Politics is a rough and tumble business and its easy for emotions to run high when someone has a point of view that you strongly disagree with.
The solution, with respect for this thread, is to at least make a fair effort not to get tangled up in the actual issues (about which I am sure many of us have partisan inclinations), but rather try and just focus as much as possible on the tactics and strategies of the two parties in this negotiation, and how we think that might affect the market.
That said, here is a great piece from Politico that sums up the current state of affairs. I don't have time to comment much, but these micro-bills funding little parts of the government (to make sure kids with Cancer get treated, or whatever) are likely to extend a shutdown if they pass, and I suspect they will pass.
House GOP to vote on narrow funding bills - Jake Sherman and Manu Raju - POLITICO.com
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Just saw this from Greg Sergeant -
This is exactly the dynamic I see playing out right now. The military funding and these micro-bills seem highly likely to extend the shutdown into the debt limit. A deal can obviously be made at any time, but all of the effort I see on the House side is to make the immediate pain of the shutdown be less, and that will reduce pressure for a deal.
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Ahh.. should have read further..
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I don't blame the mods for moving some of the posts, as some were highly political (although that's a bit tough to avoid in a thread like this). But I think analysis of the direction things are going to go (even if it does discuss politics) still fits in this thread.
As predicted by others, the market was relatively unfazed by the shutdown, and looking toward the debt ceiling as the next thing.
As predicted by others, the market was relatively unfazed by the shutdown, and looking toward the debt ceiling as the next thing.
Bonnie, your comment was misinformed. I was involved in the discussion.
Your comments were actually the ones which were "jumping in" and completely off topic.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
No, actually, saying "all the moderators are a bit out of control here" is more than a bit inflammatory, was unnecessary, and my response was not misinformed.
I'm done engaging on the topic.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Norse
Active Member
Yeah with the republicans passing this bill for everything except Obama-care I dont see an end to this, as both sides think they have the public opionon behind them.
What im not sure of tho is how the debt ceiling could impact the stock market. Could you give some pointer to us europeans there CapOp?
The day of Bill Clinton's first inauguration the DJIA was at $3,241.95. At the completion of his second term the DJIA had risen to $10,578.24. An increase of over 320 percent.
The day of George Bush's first inauguration the DJIA was at $10,578.24. At the completion of his second term the DJIA had declined to $7,409.49. A decline of about 30 percent.
The day of Barack Obama's first inauguration the DJIA was at $7,909.49. Today, the DJIA closed at $15,191.70. An increase of almost 200 percent.
Republicans present themselves as pro-business. I'm not sure I understand why.
The day of George Bush's first inauguration the DJIA was at $10,578.24. At the completion of his second term the DJIA had declined to $7,409.49. A decline of about 30 percent.
The day of Barack Obama's first inauguration the DJIA was at $7,909.49. Today, the DJIA closed at $15,191.70. An increase of almost 200 percent.
Republicans present themselves as pro-business. I'm not sure I understand why.
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