Help me confirm the retrofit-ability of Autopilot 2.0 on the Model X

[FredLambert]

Hi Model X owners,

Fred from Electrek here. I recently published an article about the upcoming hardware upgrades of Tesla's Autopilot program, often referred to as 'Autopilot 2.0': Tesla Autopilot 2.0: next gen Autopilot powered by more radar, new triple camera, some equipment already in production

One thing that I have been looking into for a while, but that I have difficulty confirming is the possible availability of a retrofit and if it becomes available, will it be a partial retrofit (like just the new front-facing camera) or a full retrofit and what models would be eligible.

From what I gathered through my reporting, Tesla aimed to release the Model X with what we now refer to as Autopilot 2.0 hardware, but the mess before the Model X launch and the mass exodus in the AP team pushed those plans and Tesla left the door opened for a retrofit.

We saw that the wiring harness for a new camera setup is already in the SUV, but I also think that wiring harnesses are already there for 4 more radar antennas around the vehicle.

Here's how Bosch installed its radar on a pre-AP Model S for its own prototype.

Before:

And after:

That hole they drilled above the vent for their prototype, it's my understanding that Tesla pre-drilled them in the Model X chassis.

I'd like to confirm with more data points. If you happen to have a picture of your Model X without the rear or front bumper for whatever reason, I'd appreciate if you could post it.

If you guys have any other input please don't hesitate.

Cheers,

Fred

 

[number12]

tracking

Any rumors about first Xs to have 2.0 or 2.0 retrofit are p100dl and later?

 

[KristianW]

This is very interesting. I am really hoping Electrek will find some update on this soon. I am supposed to take delivery in Norway in 9 days. Would feel so much better taking delivery if I knew the car was able to get the new AP hardware retrofitted. If I see new cars delivered with new hardware before ours come and it is not possible to retrofit, then I´m not sure I will take delivery or not. Reading Electrek several times a day, great work!

 

[J1mbo]

IMO, having mounting holes in the chassis is a bit of a red herring. Holes can be drilled in service centres if need be.

The real evidence of whether this stuff can be easily retrofitted would be to have spare connectors in the wiring harness near each mounting point.

 

[ecarfan]

tracking

Any rumors about first Xs to have 2.0 or 2.0 retrofit are p100dl and later?

No one has posted on TMC that they have had an AP 2.0 retrofit, and no one has posted that they have received a new Tesla with AP 2.0. Tesla has never stated that a retrofit would be available.

Fred has done some good work trying to figure out if the X is capable of being retrofitted, but at this point we just don't know for sure.

I agree with @J1mbo that the key would be to find out if the X wiring harness has the necessary connections to allow the new sensors to be added with a minimal amount of work. Again, right now we don't know.

 

[Vitold]

What about extra processing power? Can current system handle 4 additional radars with new enhanced processing available in v8.0? I doubt it.

 

[habanero69]

No one has posted on TMC that they have had an AP 2.0 retrofit, and no one has posted that they have received a new Tesla with AP 2.0. Tesla has never stated that a retrofit would be available.

Fred has done some good work trying to figure out if the X is capable of being retrofitted, but at this point we just don't know for sure.

I agree with @J1mbo that the key would be to find out if the X wiring harness has the necessary connections to allow the new sensors to be added with a minimal amount of work. Again, right now we don't know.

Not having the projected needed wiring harness additions already there, would not necessarily mean no retrofit either. It could be possible to augment existing harnesses and/or run a new one, albeit that might be costly or of no interest to Tesla (but maybe a DIY'er).

I also find the number of people that would potentially refuse delivery (and probably lose $2,500) because they may NOT be able to retro to AP2.0 a bit odd. When you buy a laptop and they come out with a new gizmo or feature 90 days after you buy, do you insist they retro? NO. Same here. If you must have, then you sell the existing and buy the new... and eat the depreciation. Same here but potentially on a much larger scale.

 

[ShadowR55]

Not having the projected needed wiring harness additions already there, would not necessarily mean no retrofit either. It could be possible to augment existing harnesses and/or run a new one, albeit that might be costly or of no interest to Tesla (but maybe a DIY'er).

I also find the number of people that would potentially refuse delivery (and probably lose $2,500) because they may NOT be able to retro to AP2.0 a bit odd. When you buy a laptop and they come out with a new gizmo or feature 90 days after you buy, do you insist they retro? NO. Same here. If you must have, then you sell the existing and buy the new... and eat the depreciation. Same here but potentially on a much larger scale.

You can't compare a $2k laptop to a $150k car, that's ridiculous.

 

[number12]

Not having the projected needed wiring harness additions already there, would not necessarily mean no retrofit either. It could be possible to augment existing harnesses and/or run a new one, albeit that might be costly or of no interest to Tesla (but maybe a DIY'er).

I also find the number of people that would potentially refuse delivery (and probably lose $2,500) because they may NOT be able to retro to AP2.0 a bit odd. When you buy a laptop and they come out with a new gizmo or feature 90 days after you buy, do you insist they retro? NO. Same here. If you must have, then you sell the existing and buy the new... and eat the depreciation. Same here but potentially on a much larger scale.

Is everyone serious? How do you compare a $100k car to a $600 or even $2000 laptop? Most people on here make that range in a day's work.

It's the unpredictable deprecation that is the issue. I'll give a pass to tesla on autopilot 1.0, but they have to know how annoying to was for people to miss out by weeks... Twice though? Add that to terrible lease terms... It's like Tesla is doing it on purpose. Especially if p100dl comes out even 2 months before 2.0 hardware. Why not reward your highest dollar customers. At least make add Retrofitablity.

I want this car for a number of reasons, but let's compare apples to apples.

 

[FredLambert]

What about extra processing power? Can current system handle 4 additional radars with new enhanced processing available in v8.0? I doubt it.

Yes for v8.0. Tesla is testing the new features on current vehicles with the AP's EyeQ3 chip and the same MCU since the original Ap launch. No for AP 2.0 though. Tesla will need more or better chips and the MCU is also reaching its limit.

But I also believe that added computer power is retrofittable though expensive.

 

[disagree]

I'm sorry Elon's rocket blew up, but he really needs to tackle some of these rumors because it is keeping myself and others from buying these expensive cars. This isn't an iPhone purchase.

 

[zer0cool]

No car company retrofits on important features like this. It's practically impossible since it would require taking the car apart, assuming other hardware requirements are meetable.

The problem is Tesla doesn't operate like traditional car companies on their cycles and I think they should. E.g. in 2015, MB said they would come out with 2017 new E class with likely xyz features. The car would be scheduled to come out say mid 2016. That way, people in 2015 can make their decisions to buy a 2015 and 2016 models in full knowledge of what is coming up. Tesla doesn't do that. Instead It frequently releases new models and important features mid-year without any forward info. I personally think that's not good.

The problem is accentuated by the fact that Tesla doesn't discount its cars... If it did, then that would likely mean the base MSRPs will need to increase. Other car companies deal with the issue of new models simply by discounting old models. Yes, you ll miss these new features on the 2017, but hey the 2016 is discounted by several thousand, and more so closer to the release of the 2017 version. So the customer and market make the decision on what the new features are worth.

Since Tesla doesn't operate like that... there's kind of no way for it to release future plans, without pretty much killing demand...

I am pretty sure the no haggling sales model is a Elon decision and it is firm. Without the ability to discount a model continually throughout a model year, there's no reasonable way for Tesla to forward release future plans. So we end up with the current situation. Additionally I am sure the "release new features whenever they become available" is also a Elon decision and is firm. So there will not be a way around it. Generally the German companies wait. They may have a tech already, but if it's still 2 years until a car's natural cycle, they ll wait 2 years before putting the tech in the car. This happens all the time. Tesla simply doesn't do that.

Should it? I think so, but Elon clearly disagrees with me and he runs the company... so...

 

[aesculus]

You can't compare a $2k laptop to a $150k car, that's ridiculous.

Yeah. I hate that argument and totally wish people would stop using it. What's next your house? Your country? Your spouse?

 

[J1mbo]

No car company retrofits on important features like this. It's practically impossible since it would require taking the car apart, assuming other hardware requirements are meetable.

The problem is Tesla doesn't operate like traditional car companies on their cycles and I think they should. E.g. in 2015, MB said they would come out with 2017 new E class with likely xyz features. The car would be scheduled to come out say mid 2016. That way, people in 2015 can make their decisions to buy a 2015 and 2016 models in full knowledge of what is coming up. Tesla doesn't do that. Instead It frequently releases new models and important features mid-year without any forward info. I personally think that's not good.

The problem is accentuated by the fact that Tesla doesn't discount its cars... If it did, then that would likely mean the base MSRPs will need to increase. Other car companies deal with the issue of new models simply by discounting old models. Yes, you ll miss these new features on the 2017, but hey the 2016 is discounted by several thousand, and more so closer to the release of the 2017 version. So the customer and market make the decision on what the new features are worth.

Since Tesla doesn't operate like that... there's kind of no way for it to release future plans, without pretty much killing demand...

I am pretty sure the no haggling sales model is a Elon decision and it is firm. Without the ability to discount a model continually throughout a model year, there's no reasonable way for Tesla to forward release future plans. So we end up with the current situation. Additionally I am sure the "release new features whenever they become available" is also a Elon decision and is firm. So there will not be a way around it. Generally the German companies wait. They may have a tech already, but if it's still 2 years until a car's natural cycle, they ll wait 2 years before putting the tech in the car. This happens all the time. Tesla simply doesn't do that.

Should it? I think so, but Elon clearly disagrees with me and he runs the company... so...

Experience is that the prices rise with new features - a fully loaded P90D is now almost as expensive as a fully loaded P90DL a month ago. So buy the best car you can afford now if you want to save money against the next revision.

Or, unofficial discounts on older inventory or CPO cars are usually available.

 

[Stoneymonster]

I'm sorry Elon's rocket blew up, but he really needs to tackle some of these rumors because it is keeping myself and others from buying these expensive cars. This isn't an iPhone purchase.

Most people, perhaps the vast majority of Tesla buyers, just aren't paying attention to this stuff on a day-to-day basis.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Yeah. I hate that argument and totally wish people would stop using it. What's next your house? Your country? Your spouse?

Oh NEAT---a software update for the Spouse. hmmm

 

[Saghost]

No car company retrofits on important features like this. It's practically impossible since it would require taking the car apart, assuming other hardware requirements are meetable.

The problem is Tesla doesn't operate like traditional car companies on their cycles and I think they should. E.g. in 2015, MB said they would come out with 2017 new E class with likely xyz features. The car would be scheduled to come out say mid 2016. That way, people in 2015 can make their decisions to buy a 2015 and 2016 models in full knowledge of what is coming up. Tesla doesn't do that. Instead It frequently releases new models and important features mid-year without any forward info. I personally think that's not good.

The problem is accentuated by the fact that Tesla doesn't discount its cars... If it did, then that would likely mean the base MSRPs will need to increase. Other car companies deal with the issue of new models simply by discounting old models. Yes, you ll miss these new features on the 2017, but hey the 2016 is discounted by several thousand, and more so closer to the release of the 2017 version. So the customer and market make the decision on what the new features are worth.

Since Tesla doesn't operate like that... there's kind of no way for it to release future plans, without pretty much killing demand...

I am pretty sure the no haggling sales model is a Elon decision and it is firm. Without the ability to discount a model continually throughout a model year, there's no reasonable way for Tesla to forward release future plans. So we end up with the current situation. Additionally I am sure the "release new features whenever they become available" is also a Elon decision and is firm. So there will not be a way around it. Generally the German companies wait. They may have a tech already, but if it's still 2 years until a car's natural cycle, they ll wait 2 years before putting the tech in the car. This happens all the time. Tesla simply doesn't do that.

Should it? I think so, but Elon clearly disagrees with me and he runs the company... so...

Tesla isn't any other car company, and they've been very clear about their differences.

Tesla also has an established history of doing significant retrofits by both hardware and software, and a history of including wiring before the features are released (look at the folding mirror timeline.)

In addition, we know for a fact that some (all?) Model Xs have wiring in the headliner for a second camera.

I think it is perfectly plausible that Tesla will provide an AP2 upgrade, at least for the X and refreshed S. If they have been providing the wiring all along, it would just be a matter of installing the new sensors/processors and appropriate firmware - not a whole lot of labor involved.

(If the cars don't have the wiring needed it gets much messier, of course. One of our more committed folks proved an older car could be given Autopilot, but it was a lot of work and he said he wouldn't do another. An AP2 retrofit should be a lot simpler.)

 

[vandacca]

No car company retrofits on important features like this. It's practically impossible since it would require taking the car apart, assuming other hardware requirements are meetable.

The problem is Tesla doesn't operate like traditional car companies on their cycles and I think they should. E.g. in 2015, MB said they would come out with 2017 new E class with likely xyz features. The car would be scheduled to come out say mid 2016. That way, people in 2015 can make their decisions to buy a 2015 and 2016 models in full knowledge of what is coming up. Tesla doesn't do that. Instead It frequently releases new models and important features mid-year without any forward info. I personally think that's not good.

The problem is accentuated by the fact that Tesla doesn't discount its cars... If it did, then that would likely mean the base MSRPs will need to increase. Other car companies deal with the issue of new models simply by discounting old models. Yes, you ll miss these new features on the 2017, but hey the 2016 is discounted by several thousand, and more so closer to the release of the 2017 version. So the customer and market make the decision on what the new features are worth.

Since Tesla doesn't operate like that... there's kind of no way for it to release future plans, without pretty much killing demand...

I am pretty sure the no haggling sales model is a Elon decision and it is firm. Without the ability to discount a model continually throughout a model year, there's no reasonable way for Tesla to forward release future plans. So we end up with the current situation. Additionally I am sure the "release new features whenever they become available" is also a Elon decision and is firm. So there will not be a way around it. Generally the German companies wait. They may have a tech already, but if it's still 2 years until a car's natural cycle, they ll wait 2 years before putting the tech in the car. This happens all the time. Tesla simply doesn't do that.

Should it? I think so, but Elon clearly disagrees with me and he runs the company... so...

@zer0cool, you make some good points, but I will kind of disagree with you and look at it from a different perspective.

Up until now, no other car company does OTA (Over-The-Air) updates to their vehicles and Tesla is the first. I predict that in the future (5-10 years), all car companies will have to follow-suit or risk losing sales.

Most of Tesla's hardware upgrades over the year are minor and most customers won't notice them. Some of them are noticeable and will upset a number of new owners that have just accepted deliveries (say 10-50 customers). However, there are going to be a much larger number of new customers that will be quite pleased with the upgrade, which would shadow the "mildly" unhappy customers.

Furthermore, if most other car companies continue with their yearly update cycle, when Tesla starts to compete directly with them, Tesla will be out-evolving them and stealing more and more business away. Tesla will be moving at warp speed while all other car companies will be moving on impulse power.

If Tesla does become a successful competitor (seems hard to believe right now with the stock price and recent bad news), I predict that other car companies will have to adopt more of Tesla's paradigm moving forward, in order to compete.

 

[number12]

Tesla isn't any other car company, and they've been very clear about their differences.

Tesla also has an established history of doing significant retrofits by both hardware and software, and a history of including wiring before the features are released (look at the folding mirror timeline.)

In addition, we know for a fact that some (all?) Model Xs have wiring in the headliner for a second camera.

I think it is perfectly plausible that Tesla will provide an AP2 upgrade, at least for the X and refreshed S. If they have been providing the wiring all along, it would just be a matter of installing the new sensors/processors and appropriate firmware - not a whole lot of labor involved.

(If the cars don't have the wiring needed it gets much messier, of course. One of our more committed folks proved an older car could be given Autopilot, but it was a lot of work and he said he wouldn't do another. An AP2 retrofit should be a lot simpler.)

OR 2.0 is happening it steps with still no plans to retrofit. Once one thjng is figured out its implemented to test, and once last piece is ready there will be no down time?

Just a guess. Wiring probably costs nothing

 

[habanero69]

Is everyone serious? How do you compare a $100k car to a $600 or even $2000 laptop? Most people on here make that range in a day's work.

It's the unpredictable deprecation that is the issue. I'll give a pass to tesla on autopilot 1.0, but they have to know how annoying to was for people to miss out by weeks... Twice though? Add that to terrible lease terms... It's like Tesla is doing it on purpose. Especially if p100dl comes out even 2 months before 2.0 hardware. Why not reward your highest dollar customers. At least make add Retrofitablity.

I want this car for a number of reasons, but let's compare apples to apples.

I guess I used a laptop as a $$$ poor example. The outcome is the same as others have said. You buy, then take a chance on a much better product coming out at any time with little to no pre-announcement. Tesla is NOT in the business of retrofitting and they don't discount models because new/future ones will have better features. Nor do they state the specs on cars to be future released. They don't and they won't. I'm not one that likes it, but EM runs the company and I have to abide by his plan.