Help me confirm the retrofit-ability of Autopilot 2.0 on the Model X

[technomation]

Interesting comparison you give, a laptop. People used to regularly upgrade their PCs and laptops just for a little more performance and to gain some new functionality and graphics capability. Now processor performance is so high with no exciting gains in functionality that few are compelled to upgrade, regardless of the insignificant cost. Going from AP 1.0 to 2.0 is a different story because much new functionality is to be gained, e.g., recognizing stop signs and traffic lights, planning miles-ahead curve slowdowns and speedups, properly reacting to more complex scenarios with motorcycles and pedestrians, and other safety features sure to come in the near future...but NOT if your new car is on the old hardware.

With more sensors and cameras on board, the amount of data to be analyzed will escalate, an actual big-data analytics problem, real-time in your car. A new, more powerful processor will also be required. Elon has said That Tesla is doing only “narrow AI,” but that doesn’t mean that over their software-development roadmap that they want to be confined to simple logistical-regression AI algorithms. To advance to L3/L4 and beyond, Tesla's dev team may want to add some bells and whistles to their current AI algorithms, e.g., stochastic gradient descent or maybe some new Deep Learning algorithms. For this more advanced AI and all the big data from more cameras and sensors that has to be processed in real-time, they’re going to need to switch from the simpler EyeQ3 to NVIDIA Tegra or some other more capable processor. There’s just a whole lot more going on in the autonomic driver-assist world than with boring laptops. That's why I'm concerned about missing the AP 2.0 boat with my Model S P100D order that I placed just two weeks ago (the new hardware probably costs less than 1 percent of my total vehicle cost). Tesla has been lauded for its software upgradeability. They ought to consider upping their game with hardware retrofitability.

 

[number12]

Ok let's just say it's not ready. I would be ok if they discounted or did some incentive to buy now. That was it limited my downside and If it's important to me I can trade in and take the hair cut. If not I can pay less for getting less.

 

[ecarfan]

The problem is Tesla doesn't operate like traditional car companies on their cycles and I think they should... Since Tesla doesn't operate like that... there's kind of no way for it to release future plans, without pretty much killing demand...

I think the unconventional way that Tesla operates (no fixed "model year" and no discounting) is fine and is working well for the company. Demand is incredibly high for their existing $70K to $100K+ models and demand is unprecedented for the Model 3.

Just four years ago no one, not even Elon, was predicting that by late 2016 Tesla could be manufacturing EVs at a rate of 100,000/year, car that were selling at an average price of around $90K.

Most people, perhaps the vast majority of Tesla buyers, just aren't paying attention to this stuff on a day-to-day basis

Exactly. In the TMC bubble / echo chamber we obsessively track every tiny bit of Tesla news. In the real world, potential buyers don't do that. I have spoken to quite a few people lately who are interested in maybe getting a Tesla and some who actually have placed an order but not yet received their car and NONE OF THEM know anything about V8 or AP 2.0 or anything except what is currently shown as available on the Tesla Motors website.

 

[technomation]

No car company retrofits on important features like this. It's practically impossible since it would require taking the car apart, assuming other hardware requirements are meetable.

The problem is Tesla doesn't operate like traditional car companies on their cycles and I think they should. E.g. in 2015, MB said they would come out with 2017 new E class with likely xyz features. The car would be scheduled to come out say mid 2016. That way, people in 2015 can make their decisions to buy a 2015 and 2016 models in full knowledge of what is coming up. Tesla doesn't do that. Instead It frequently releases new models and important features mid-year without any forward info. I personally think that's not good.

The problem is accentuated by the fact that Tesla doesn't discount its cars... If it did, then that would likely mean the base MSRPs will need to increase. Other car companies deal with the issue of new models simply by discounting old models. Yes, you ll miss these new features on the 2017, but hey the 2016 is discounted by several thousand, and more so closer to the release of the 2017 version. So the customer and market make the decision on what the new features are worth.

Since Tesla doesn't operate like that... there's kind of no way for it to release future plans, without pretty much killing demand...

I am pretty sure the no haggling sales model is a Elon decision and it is firm. Without the ability to discount a model continually throughout a model year, there's no reasonable way for Tesla to forward release future plans. So we end up with the current situation. Additionally I am sure the "release new features whenever they become available" is also a Elon decision and is firm. So there will not be a way around it. Generally the German companies wait. They may have a tech already, but if it's still 2 years until a car's natural cycle, they ll wait 2 years before putting the tech in the car. This happens all the time. Tesla simply doesn't do that.

Should it? I think so, but Elon clearly disagrees with me and he runs the company... so...

No car company does a lot of the things that Tesla does. We all know that Tesla is a pioneer and its accomplishments are unique in the auto industry. I don’t see why Tesla would have to “take the car apart” to do a retrofit for more sensors and cameras. Might be true for models a year or older, and would be consistent with the policy and practice of other luxury automakers. However, going forward with the brand new P100D, given Tesla’s software prowess, it should also consider having some basic hardware retrofitting capability. At the very least, just pre-install some wiring harnesses and locations for a few additional sensors. Even a tri-camera module location could be easily stubbed out. Tesla would just have to get a little more granular in their already very modular design.

In my own case, my two-week-old order for a P100D should not even be a retrofit question if AP 2.0 is truly already in the works. There’s all this online chatter about AP 2.0, but the Tesla sales and delivery people I’ve dealt with, including one “sitting right next to the factory,” told me that they haven’t heard a single peep about AP 2.0. Here in Houston, our acquaintances who’ve recently purchased a Tesla are understandably clueless about any major upcoming changes. My wife really wants to take delivery of the car and is wishing that I was.

 

[ecarfan]

the Tesla sales and delivery people I’ve dealt with, including one “sitting right next to the factory,” told me that they haven’t heard a single peep about AP 2.0.

They are typically the last to know (inside Tesla Motors) about upcoming changes.

 

[ohmman]

Exactly. In the TMC bubble / echo chamber we obsessively track every tiny bit of Tesla news. In the real world, potential buyers don't do that. I have spoken to quite a few people lately who are interested in maybe getting a Tesla and some who actually have placed an order but not yet received their car and NONE OF THEM know anything about V8 or AP 2.0 or anything except what is currently shown as available on the Tesla Motors website.

I always have to recalibrate when I'm speaking with a potential buyer, because I instantly assume they're as up to date as I am. After a few sentences, I realize they don't even know about charging the car. AP 2.0 is so far off of their radar (or lidar..?!) that it has no bearing on their purchase decision. And I believe that if they got the very last AP 1.0 car, they probably wouldn't know it for a year or more. Not everyone is as obsessive as the lot of us.

 

[ShadowR55]

Enthusiasts are what drive a brand to success. BMW has such a large following because of the enthusiasts who are basically walking salesmen/evangelists for the brand. Ford and Chevrolet don't care about Tesla's current sales, they aren't even a blip on their radar. What they are worried about is their following. When a brand has a following, it can grow at an exponential rate and can drastically effect future business if you don't take notice, adapt and compete.

Keeping your enthusiasts happy = success

Ignoring them because they are a blip on your radar = failure

 

[Ingineer]

I'm not going to call it AP 2.0, because that has no basis in fact, but sadly, I predict no update for either S or X to a tri-camera multi-radar system. For starters it's a huge job at a time when many service centers have huge backlogs. I don't see Tesla offering an upgrade anyway, when historically they have really tried to encourage people to trade in their existing cars and upgrade to a newer one with the latest features.

 

[number12]

Does anyone know the last car to not have AP hardware. Did they wait to a certain VIN, certain month, etc. not that they would do it again, but curious. 20000 model X vin is about to come up. Wonder if any changes happen in intervals like that.

 

[Canuck]

I'm not going to call it 2.0, because that has no fact, but sadly, I predict no update for either S or X to a tri-camera multi-radar system. For starters it's a huge job at a time when many service center's have huge backlogs. I don't see Tesla offering an upgrade anyway, when historically they have really tried to encourage people to trade in their existing cars and upgrade to a newer one with the latest features.

I agree. I also think that if you start to see additions to vehicles with places for more cameras, additional wiring harness, holes, etc. it's only because the assembly line likely works that way and I wouldn't read anything else into it such as a retrofit. I think they start to add future features in stages, and it's not until the final component is added that the feature is capable of working. I don't think they shut down the entire assembly line and add all the new features, then start it up again. It seems to make more sense to do it in stages...

 

[mhan00]

Is everyone serious? How do you compare a $100k car to a $600 or even $2000 laptop? Most people on here make that range in a day's work.

It's the unpredictable deprecation that is the issue. I'll give a pass to tesla on autopilot 1.0, but they have to know how annoying to was for people to miss out by weeks... Twice though? Add that to terrible lease terms... It's like Tesla is doing it on purpose. Especially if p100dl comes out even 2 months before 2.0 hardware. Why not reward your highest dollar customers. At least make add Retrofitablity.

I want this car for a number of reasons, but let's compare apples to apples.

Retrofit is unlikely. Tesla service centers are slammed (at least in their most popular locations). It's doubtful Tesla wants to add even more burden to them.

 

[technomation]

Retrofit is unlikely. Tesla service centers are slammed (at least in their most popular locations). It's doubtful Tesla wants to add even more burden to them.

Agree, lately I'm seeing Model X's stacking up at the service center with all kinds of door and other issues. Couple that with most purchasers being oblivious to current levels of AP, and you can understand why Tesla may not be motivated to retrofit even simple sensor hardware alongside OTA software updates. Although you see concern about missing out on AP 2.0 on several threads within this forum, the number of possible cancellations due to waiting for AP 2.0 may actually be small for the outside world. The Tesla local people I deal with seem to be completely unconcerned about what I might do. Onward to the next sale!

 

[technomation]

They are typically the last to know (inside Tesla Motors) about upcoming changes.

That's an interesting thought. I myself knew very little two weeks ago. They can google around just like I did to pick up on things. I believe they know. They've likely been instructed by their management to act like they don't, to keep sales from being Osborned.

 

[andrewket]

Retrofit is unlikely. Tesla service centers are slammed (at least in their most popular locations). It's doubtful Tesla wants to add even more burden to them.

This continues to be my opinion as well. However, I mentioned this to a Tesla tech the other day, and while they agreed it would further burden the SCs when they're already struggling to keep up, the tech said (paraphrase a bit) "management is looking for every opportunity to bring in money, and if they think we can sell upgrades at a siginificant margin, I think they will do it even at the expense of short-term degraded service at the SCs."

Food for thought.

 

[technomation]

This continues to be my opinion as well. However, I mentioned this to a Tesla tech the other day, and while they agreed it would further burden the SCs when they're already struggling to keep up, the tech said (paraphrase a bit) "management is looking for every opportunity to bring in money, and if they think we can sell upgrades at a siginificant margin, I think they will do it even at the expense of short-term degraded service at the SCs."

Food for thought.

I thought that Tesla's SCs are not profit centers (Nick Howe's book). Think they'll change their business model? I would certainly pay up for hardware upgrades!

Encouraging to see such a Tesla veteran that's had that many EVs since Tesla's early days. That license plate (avatar) is what I was going to put on "Torky," which would be my first EV.

 

[electricity]

This continues to be my opinion as well. However, I mentioned this to a Tesla tech the other day, and while they agreed it would further burden the SCs when they're already struggling to keep up, the tech said (paraphrase a bit) "management is looking for every opportunity to bring in money, and if they think we can sell upgrades at a siginificant margin, I think they will do it even at the expense of short-term degraded service at the SCs."

Food for thought.

I agree with this. If they offer AP 2.0 for 10k everyone would upgrade. If it means trading in your 5 month old model X.. I dont think so.

 

[number12]

I agree with this. If they offer AP 2.0 for 10k everyone would upgrade. If it means trading in your 5 month old model X.. I dont think so.

BUT why not?

You get another Tax credit. So if your deprecation is $17,500 or less it would be cheaper to trade in than pay $10,000 cash (vs finance).

Also factor in $5k at least to use car for 5 months. You could make the argument that a $22,500 deprecation on trade in is equal to paying $10,000 AND you would have another brand new car (with no wait time as you drive an X till you get an X.

 

[shokunin]

I don't think they will offer retrofits. There's too much work involved as well as liability if the service center installs something incorrectly. There's also the question of processing power, MCU, windshields, wiring harnesses, etc.

 

[aesculus]

Well at this point it seems moot anyway. I agree with many that with this significant update coming (one I totally did not see or think was possible), anything that looks like AP 2.0 would be years away. And any thought I had of them wanting to provide AP 2.0 to remove a liability probably went out the window with the features I see coming in V 8.1.

 

[Mjølner]

Quite easy, won`t happen.
What else has been "retrofiteble" until now? Just easy stuff like mirror`s as I know.
They wanna sell car`s, not parts.