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Help me time my M3 purchase.

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Where have you heard about upgraded sensors and new cameras? As far as I am aware, HW3 is only a new processing unit, with all sensors (radar, cameras, etc) saying the same.


Correct- HW3 is just the computer- which is a 30 minute easy swap on HW2.x cars for free if you bought FSD. (and if you didn't then HW3 isn't needed anyway).

No change to the sensor suite, per direct word from Elon.
 
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Smart move on waiting for more info on EAP HW3.0

And waiting till June to put in order to guarantee getting a 2019 build M3. Better resale value than 2018 build.

Having said that, I advised a friend to buy an almost new M3 with < 5000 miles with LR, PUP, EAP that can be bought for 20% off msrp. Better than timing for the $3750 tax credit.

Wow that's a deal @ 20% off ! Wonder if I can find a LeMR black+black @ that price...

I'm also trying to time the M3 market, but for price. Having passed on the $45K-7.5K credit, Any chance the $35K SR would have HW 3 b/f 6/30 ?
 
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. :)

Pretty sure the person who I saw on FB get $6,200 off a showroom 3P with 3800 miles getting a better deal than any machinations here.

I'd be looking to jump on targets of opportunity and not be set to trying to lock down a certain date.

If I were a betting person which I am (any takers?) I don't believe HW3 will make EAP implementations significantly better on HW3 vs HW2.5

The people with sub 300,000 vins delivery will MAKE SURE OF THAT.

I feel comfortable with the $8K EAP+FSD front loaded purchase knowing the wide release of the Model 3 will minimize sweeping Tesla iterations.

Want to know who has the fastest, cheapest, bestest Tesla?

Your neighbor.

I've spent significant time analyzing Tesla price/feature movements and while someone can do well at optimal min/max, they are local maxima advantages that are very temporary.
 
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Correct- HW3 is just the computer- which is a 30 minute easy swap on HW2.x cars for free if you bought FSD. (and if you didn't then HW3 isn't needed anyway).

No change to the sensor suite, per direct word from Elon.

I don't see FSD and EAP as different animals, but as different by degree. If it is needed for FSD, I think it's reasonable to assume it would help EAP by some amount.
 
Don't worry.. Within 6 months of purchasing your HW 3.0 Tesla there will be a HW 3.5. There is no right time to buy a Tesla as there will always be something newer the day after you commit to it or an improvement or price reduction.

Categories of most screwed Tesla owners.

The fully insured route is just get your Model 3 today, ask for FSD off menu and not worry about playing games with asymmetric information.
 
I don't see FSD and EAP as different animals, but as different by degree. If it is needed for FSD, I think it's reasonable to assume it would help EAP by some amount.

Elon Musk said:
Those who order full self-driving get the upgrade at no cost. It isn’t needed just for enhanced Autopilot.

(bold added)

hence why I'd expect the feature called (and sold as) enhanced autopilot to remain on the HW2.5 codebase (that will run fine on HW3 cars of course- but with no functional difference) and the FSD NN, which will require HW3 to run, will offer anything new/improved that needs HW3 specifically.

This avoids needing to give EAP owners free hardware, and gives people incentive to add FSD if they don't already have it.
 
There is no right time to buy a Tesla as there will always be something newer the day after you commit to it or an improvement or price reduction.

Which is why the correct time to buy is 'the present.' There will always be something new coming down the pipe, and you may regret missing out on that. Meanwhile, you will regret all the time you're not able to drive a Tesla while you sit on your hands.
 
This thought has run through my head a few times as well. I'm also curious if Tesla will either add more incentives or remove the price cuts they have in place sometime between now and the end of June. Demand hasn't seemed to pick up yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does soon.
 
Thanks much! That makes perfect sense, could you clarify where I would go to verify the last day for the tax credit? is it mid year june 30th??
You have to have taken delivery before June 30th. If you’re flexible about colors then order late May. If you’re heart is set on a particular configuration order in March. But regardless of when you order you have zero influence over the build date or what components will be installed. No one here can tell you that.
 
With all the announcements I'm still sticking with my timing : placing order in may with timing to take delivery in June.

Still sticking with the LR AWD. Extra 12k but it's really a different care with the extra torque.

Feels like a new way to dump the inventory before they announce HW3.

I know y'all say I'm missing out on driving a Tesla, I don't have that much FOMO on driving it. My FOMO is on HW3. It's just such a huge draw for me.
 
With all the announcements I'm still sticking with my timing : placing order in may with timing to take delivery in June.

Still sticking with the LR AWD. Extra 12k but it's really a different care with the extra torque.

Feels like a new way to dump the inventory before they announce HW3.

I know y'all say I'm missing out on driving a Tesla, I don't have that much FOMO on driving it. My FOMO is on HW3. It's just such a huge draw for me.


If you order today and buy FSD you will get HW3 for no extra cost regardless of which HW the car originally comes with.

If you don't plan to buy FSD then HW3 is of no benefit to you.

So waiting does nothing other than risk missing the June tax credit if demand surges and they're busy filling the remaining reservation orders who were waiting on SR models.
 
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You have to have taken delivery before June 30th. If you’re flexible about colors then order late May. If you’re heart is set on a particular configuration order in March. But regardless of when you order you have zero influence over the build date or what components will be installed. No one here can tell you that.

Why do you suggest ordering in March?

I also want to time for as late delivery in June as possible...but only because my 328xi lease isn't up until end of September. So, I want to limit the time I have 2 cars but don't want to miss $3750 fed tax credit, $1750 PA rebate.

When I build my desired configuration it gives me an estimated delivery date of less than 2 weeks. So if I ordered today, I'd have 2 cars for an extra 3 months than I want.

Can the delivery dates on the website be trusted??

My plan was to just wait until when the estimated delivery date takes me to 1st week of June to be safe (ie. if it says 6 weeks on April 15th then I'll purchase, or if it says 3 weeks on May 7th then I'll purchase, etc, etc).

Is that a bad strategy based on your experience with delivery estimates?
 
The issue is what if your delivered car has a problem significant enough you reject delivery?

Now you're waiting for them to build/ship (or find in inventory) a replacement car. Which might also take weeks.
 
Interesting... I just did an online chat with Tesla:

Me: So, I have decided that my next vehicle will be a Tesla! I am excited about this...but I have a bit of a dilemma.
Me: I can't take delivery until June
Me: So, my question is, is there any way to order now and hold delivery until then, or do I need to wait to place the order

Tesla Rep, Stephanie: So, yes you can go online and order, now when your delivery adviser contacts you they will be able to assist you with getting this setup for June delivery

Me: Oh wow. That is awesome.

Tesla Rep, Stephanie: Yes, it is.


Can anyone confirm this to be true?

I'm thinking I just drive to a gallery center and check with them before I do it.
 
Why do you suggest ordering in March?

I also want to time for as late delivery in June as possible...but only because my 328xi lease isn't up until end of September. So, I want to limit the time I have 2 cars but don't want to miss $3750 fed tax credit, $1750 PA rebate.

When I build my desired configuration it gives me an estimated delivery date of less than 2 weeks. So if I ordered today, I'd have 2 cars for an extra 3 months than I want.

Can the delivery dates on the website be trusted??

My plan was to just wait until when the estimated delivery date takes me to 1st week of June to be safe (ie. if it says 6 weeks on April 15th then I'll purchase, or if it says 3 weeks on May 7th then I'll purchase, etc, etc).

Is that a bad strategy based on your experience with delivery estimates?
The website delivery dates are estimated. It can be sooner or later depending on configuration. The less picky you are about configuration the shorter time frame you need. No one, including Tesla sales, will be able to guarantee you anything. Roll the dice as you see fit.
 
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This sealed the deal for me more than anything:

Going to price out trade-in / purchase this weekend :)

I was patiently waiting for HW3 as well, but figure it's probably going to be implemented after June, and FSD is likely very far away anyway. So I've decided to get the car sooner to enjoy it more. I'll buy the 10k FSD upgrade, when it really will do FSD from doorstep to doorstep.